Tracking a Series of Thunderstorm Producing Disturbances

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Good Saturday bloggers,

July is five full days old and it has already been an odd month as we have seen a wide variance of rain across the area.

Officially, rainfall has ranged from 7″ at Pleasant Hill, MO to 0.06″ at St. Joseph, MO. In the Kansas City metropolitan area amounts have ranged from .25″ to 4″. The rainfall mostly occurred on the 4th and 5th as a small upper low tracked very slow across Kansas and western Missouri.

We are tracking another disturbance for today that was located in northwest Kansas, northwest of Hays, KS at 7:30 AM. This disturbance will track southeast through the day and it will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms which will stay mostly southwest of KC, but a few may drift in. At this time, we do not expect any widespread or prolonged rain. So, it looks good for the air show and Sporting KC game.

We are in a weather pattern where the main jet stream is flowing across the northern USA. There is a weak upper level high over south Texas with a flow from Mexico to the southwest USA to Plains around the upper level high. This flow contains a series of thunderstorm producing disturbances. It is quite difficult to predict the timing and location of these disturbances more than 6-12 hours in advance. Especially, when they seem to fall apart as they are approaching. So, we just have to take this one day at a time.

SUNDAY: Tonight and early Sunday look mostly dry. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms this evening from the disturbance I showed above. Another disturbance moves towards us later Sunday, but this should stay mostly to the west. A few showers and thunderstorms may sneak into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

MONDAY: A bigger disturbance will produce more widespread rain and thunderstorms across Kansas. This will move east and has a better chance of making it to our area.

TUESDAY: Yet another disturbance tracks out of the Rockies and this one will move into the region with a decent chance of rain and thunderstorms. There is another possible Wednesday before we have 2-3 drier days as the disturbance parade takes a break.

WEEKEND FORECAST: This weekend we may see a few showers and thunderstorms today, this evening and Sunday. They will be located mostly to our west. We do not expect widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, so it looks pretty good for the air show, Sporting KC game and all outdoor events. Now, that being said, still keep an eye to the sky when out and about this weekend.

Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

Jeff Penner

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Big JKS JonesPsychotic AardvarkEastOfEdenJordan Recent comment authors
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Big J
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Big J

Still been avoiding rain near Smithville and loving it. Need dry weather.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Got another 3/4” of rain yesterday, bringing our July total to 1.5” so far. On average, this area 25 miles north of Manhattan gets 0.6” more rain in July than does KC.
All the major rivers in Kansas should be flowing well this year.
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Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

Gary or anybody else, I was wondering if you had any input. I’m in branson this weekend and was wondering about the chances of storms tonight. I’ve checked the short term HRRR model and it shows storms forming later tonight but didn’t know if I should ignore that.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think the reason the rain is missing us is because the LRC is changing. The upper level features of the LRC are still on schedule and where they are supposed to be, but in the lower 1,000 feet of the atmosphere, things are a changing. At least over Kansas City.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

While this is slightly different, seasonal differences. There seems to be really nothing pushing. Small HP in east Texas, bigger one off east coast. So it is different, I’m not so sure it’s changing, yet. 4 more weeks, possibly. To answer a question below about why do the storms seem to fad as the get to KC, I use Windy.com to see the wind directions and speed. I can’t see how the winds are interacting at boundaries, I can’t tell if there rising, dropping, clashing or just bumping, or I just read it right(?). With that, no real flow in… Read more »

Jordan
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Jordan

Does anyone know what has been causing a lot of the disturbances that track this way to significantly weaken as they approach the metro, only to re-fire south and east of the city? It seems like it’s been a trend the past couple of summers. Is there an atmospheric feature that causes this?

Jordan
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Jordan

Oh, durr, I forgot there’s a 30′ hill in Tonganoxie that causes this LOL /s

Johnny
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Johnny

Yep

Nate
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Nate

The CIA / Military have been doing weather manipulation research in our area for quite some time..just a theory of course

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It’s a trend in this LRC for areas to the southeast to be hit harder by any weather event. Remember all those snowstorms? It was always the south or southeast with the highest totals (and my area with the lowest).

Kurt
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Kurt

Been watching radar this morning and it gets to almost here and falls apart just west of me. Time to move sprinkler to another part of the yard. Wish Mother Nature would cooperate and get me decent rains soon.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Does July still look like above average precipitation and below average temperatures for the rest of the month? The models which haven’t been great lately, seem to trend towards just the opposite.

Johnny
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Johnny

If the rain gods could just go over Kurt in St Joe’s house the world would be a much happier place.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

First?