Good Saturday bloggers,
July is five full days old and it has already been an odd month as we have seen a wide variance of rain across the area.
Officially, rainfall has ranged from 7″ at Pleasant Hill, MO to 0.06″ at St. Joseph, MO. In the Kansas City metropolitan area amounts have ranged from .25″ to 4″. The rainfall mostly occurred on the 4th and 5th as a small upper low tracked very slow across Kansas and western Missouri.
We are tracking another disturbance for today that was located in northwest Kansas, northwest of Hays, KS at 7:30 AM. This disturbance will track southeast through the day and it will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms which will stay mostly southwest of KC, but a few may drift in. At this time, we do not expect any widespread or prolonged rain. So, it looks good for the air show and Sporting KC game.
We are in a weather pattern where the main jet stream is flowing across the northern USA. There is a weak upper level high over south Texas with a flow from Mexico to the southwest USA to Plains around the upper level high. This flow contains a series of thunderstorm producing disturbances. It is quite difficult to predict the timing and location of these disturbances more than 6-12 hours in advance. Especially, when they seem to fall apart as they are approaching. So, we just have to take this one day at a time.
SUNDAY: Tonight and early Sunday look mostly dry. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms this evening from the disturbance I showed above. Another disturbance moves towards us later Sunday, but this should stay mostly to the west. A few showers and thunderstorms may sneak into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
MONDAY: A bigger disturbance will produce more widespread rain and thunderstorms across Kansas. This will move east and has a better chance of making it to our area.
TUESDAY: Yet another disturbance tracks out of the Rockies and this one will move into the region with a decent chance of rain and thunderstorms. There is another possible Wednesday before we have 2-3 drier days as the disturbance parade takes a break.
WEEKEND FORECAST: This weekend we may see a few showers and thunderstorms today, this evening and Sunday. They will be located mostly to our west. We do not expect widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, so it looks pretty good for the air show, Sporting KC game and all outdoor events. Now, that being said, still keep an eye to the sky when out and about this weekend.
Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.