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Good morning bloggers,

What just happened?  There are some of us writing in blog comments and tweeting about how dry it is, and then there are others that had nearly 8″ of rain on July 4th, just 20 miles east of KC:

This satellite picture shows the small area of thunderstorms located right where that disturbance was centered.  New showers and thunderstorms have formed and I will post that in just a minute.

Last night’s storm system was fascinating in many ways.  What happened is really not that surprising.  The same thing had happened the night before over central Kansas.  There was nothing on radar when I was on at 10 PM two nights ago, and I still went with a good chance of rain on the 4th of July.  The thunderstorms formed, and then tracked into KC.  Then, once again, the radar screen almost completely cleared and then boom; thunderstorms started forming near Raytown, then they back built to the north and west and kept redeveloping.  I did not Nowcast very well.  I was being way too optimistic for the fireworks shows.  There was a weak upper level low almost directly overhead.  I should not have been so optimistic.  So, on a day I went with a high probability of rain, I still did not do well on the timing of the redevelopment at 7 PM.  I thought is would happen after 10 PM.

There are a few of you out there wondering if we are suddenly in a dry pattern. Remember, at this moment this is the wettest first half of a year Kansas City has ever had.  Every time there has been any hint of it drying out, this pattern has come through with a very wet change.  So, I recommend patience. Remember, it is now July.

We have moved into the part of the LRC that Jeff and I have called, “The trough that doesn’t move”.  In November, an upper level trough would dip down into the Rocky Mountains and plains, then lift out just to be replaced by another trough. The troughs would move, but it seemed the same from day to day as they kept getting replaced.  We thought this part of the pattern would be wet in July, and it is being tested right now as it was due to begin around the 4th of July.  Well, it certainly did begin.

This picture above shows the enhanced satellite picture as of 7 AM.  I am sure we would agree that this shows that the atmosphere is quite “disturbed” this morning.  Thunderstorms were increasing and the satellite was enhancing in that red area just northwest of KC.  Let’s see what happens in the next few hours.

  • KC Forecast today:  A nearly 100% chance of rain and a few heavy thunderstorms today!  Most areas will just have a few showers and thunderstorms, around an hour or so, while other areas may see three or four hours of thunderstorms.
  • Saturday-Sunday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of late night and morning thunderstorms. Light winds with highs in the 80s.

There is a disturbance tracking our way this morning.  Some spots are again getting inches of rain, while others get missed.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog featuring the LRC!  There was an error in the blog presentation today, so it is being worked on.  If you see the differences, just know it is being fixed sometime today.

Gary

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Big J
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Big J

I’m not sure how anyone in their right mind could say it’s dry. The whole area is at least 10” over the avg for 2019, with some approaching 20”. We near Smithville got only .6 inches in the last week. #blessed. Praying for no more rain till Nov or so when the avg catches up with normal. I feel sorry for the poor slobs that got 5-9 inches in the last day. Been a miserable spring and summer.

Kurt
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Kurt

St Joseph’s official reporting station is at 21.27 year to date and normal is 17.29, that’s only 3.98 above normal coming off two well below average years. Anyone that refutes that it’s dry up here in my county can come dig in the dirt and realize how dry it is because we’re still trying to recharge soils up here. I’m watering to keep yard from burning up if it does get hot and yards need 1-2 inches per week. It’s been hit or miss except the 6-10 day stretch in June. Please stop generalizing for everyone and it’s dry here

Big J
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Big J

I was talking around KC. It’s been a nasty swamp here. I’d trade places with you in a heartbeat. I’d love it for my acres to go dormant. I remember the good ol days when we had the terrible “drought”. I’d just mow the laterals of the septic system and put the ol zero turn back in the shed. And go back into the ac.

Backwoods4ever
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Backwoods4ever

5″ since yesterday here in Tightwad. Slowing or not at all releasing into LOZ right now. Osage river into MO river. Truman not coming down anymore for awhile.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Just a question, what does it mean when there is a 100% chance of rain?

Jobu
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Jobu

Hahaha. It means no matter what, 100% of the area will see rain, no matter what.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

That is what I thought, but I had some people try to say it only applied to KCI , which I knew was not right. I would maybe say that 70% of the 100% verified. I have no real way of measuring that except to see rainfall amounts around the metro and who received it and who did not have a drop. I am by I means an expert and certainly Gary knows tons more about weather than I do, but the miss last night and today’s forecast, I would call it two misses, thoughts?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Anchorage hit a record temperature of 90 degrees on Thursday

Roger
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Roger

Part of the reason for the wavy jet stream. Especially over Europe.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

It’s raining, it’s stooorming, the old man is snoooring, he went to bed and he bumped his head, and he couldn’t get up in the mooorning.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Man the HRRR sucks lately. Right now the HRRR shows this cluster over north central KS dieing before it gets to KC. That is not happening! We are going to have storms after 4 PM probably until 9 PM!

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

I don’t see that happening.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well I’ll be maybe the HRRR was actually right today.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Lol, HRRR nailed it! But it has sucked lately, the atmosphere is a mess and hard to even nowcast.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Looks like they have shut off the water releases at Lake Perry all of the sudden.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I am getting the Tonganoxie type of split right now. Rain just North of Kearney and rain in Liberty. Bone dry in my location. It was interesting watching that on radar. But there is still all of that rain to the NW/W of this initial band so maybe that will provide some. Gives me a chance to go the grocery store without getting wet.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

It really didn’t rain here in central Liberty. 5 minutes worth of a shower and yes, that radar loop is kind of irritating, so I’m not watching anymore.

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

I’ve already had two good downpours this morning with one happening right now! Still have not watered my lawn this year!!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

We got quick .7″ Tuesday, .5″ yesterday afternoon in a heavy burst, then .7″ last night. So a healthy 1.9″ this week and looks like good bit more on the way.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Got ANOTHER 1.4″ in past 90 minutes, still raining. Please stop and go to Kurts yard!!!!
I’m at 3.3″ since Tuesday and now creek is up

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

How will this affect the air show all weekend?

Becky
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Becky

It says on their Facebook page that it will go on rain or shine.

Adam
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Adam

Yup. Bought Flight line tickets for myself and my son, so I’ll be there rain or shine. Lol

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Unless it falls in my neighborhood it’s dry to me. Sure others are wet, but only a trace in two weeks. It’s drying out and finding creative ways to miss my area

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Sounds very familiar.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Just stating what is isn’t happening, only a trace of rain this month and this mornings activity dissapated. Clearing off with good north breeze. Seems to be something causing the split up here. Will be watering yard again today

John
Guest
John

The sites that keep St. Joseph daily rainfall totals says you have received 2.37″ of rain in the past two weeks. That seems like a lot more than a trace. While not a lot the trace comment seems a little exaggerated.

Kurt
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Kurt

I’m just telling you the rain shut off about two weeks ago. You’re not an authority of my yard, mind your own business pain!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The last measurable rain was Sunday the 24th, so 12 days. Not sure what your problem is, but if I say it’s dry it’s dry in my immediate area. Part of it is the clay soils in the area, but again we typically get missed

C.C
Guest
C.C

Seems to be a string cap around the Northland. Storms fizzle out upon approach and then gain strength south of the metro

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

C.C., agreed! I have seen this now for several weeks in the Kansas City Area. Not sure what causes that to happen but maybe Gary can provide some insight?

C.C
Guest
C.C

Jhawk it’s so frustrating. Storms all around just not my area

Daniel
Guest
Daniel

8.14″ just 2 miles West of Lone Jack yesterday. 5″ of it between 9pm and 10:30 pm. It was like we were standing under Niagra Falls for an hour. Water everywhere and quite a flooding mess. With the rain so far this morning we are almost to 9″ and counting in last 24 hours.

It needs to stop!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

0.55″ in Independence yesterday. That was just north of I-70. Just south of I-70 easily three times that amount. Everything was training just south of us.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Rain coming in from the northwest this morning, split and reformed just south of us.

Noah Finegan
Guest
Noah Finegan

Raymore got 5.2 Inches in total last night.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I only had just over a tenth of an inch north of Liberty yesterday. It was enough to wet the lawn and plants and looks like there may be more on the way so not complaining. That was an amazing storm and from the northland you could see the lightning mixed in with all of the fireworks. It certainly made for a great show. Only 40 days until the kids go back to school. The second half of summer (kids out of school summer) always seems to go by fast. Happy Friday!