Good morning bloggers,
What just happened? There are some of us writing in blog comments and tweeting about how dry it is, and then there are others that had nearly 8″ of rain on July 4th, just 20 miles east of KC:
This satellite picture shows the small area of thunderstorms located right where that disturbance was centered. New showers and thunderstorms have formed and I will post that in just a minute.
Last night’s storm system was fascinating in many ways. What happened is really not that surprising. The same thing had happened the night before over central Kansas. There was nothing on radar when I was on at 10 PM two nights ago, and I still went with a good chance of rain on the 4th of July. The thunderstorms formed, and then tracked into KC. Then, once again, the radar screen almost completely cleared and then boom; thunderstorms started forming near Raytown, then they back built to the north and west and kept redeveloping. I did not Nowcast very well. I was being way too optimistic for the fireworks shows. There was a weak upper level low almost directly overhead. I should not have been so optimistic. So, on a day I went with a high probability of rain, I still did not do well on the timing of the redevelopment at 7 PM. I thought is would happen after 10 PM.
There are a few of you out there wondering if we are suddenly in a dry pattern. Remember, at this moment this is the wettest first half of a year Kansas City has ever had. Every time there has been any hint of it drying out, this pattern has come through with a very wet change. So, I recommend patience. Remember, it is now July.
We have moved into the part of the LRC that Jeff and I have called, “The trough that doesn’t move”. In November, an upper level trough would dip down into the Rocky Mountains and plains, then lift out just to be replaced by another trough. The troughs would move, but it seemed the same from day to day as they kept getting replaced. We thought this part of the pattern would be wet in July, and it is being tested right now as it was due to begin around the 4th of July. Well, it certainly did begin.
This picture above shows the enhanced satellite picture as of 7 AM. I am sure we would agree that this shows that the atmosphere is quite “disturbed” this morning. Thunderstorms were increasing and the satellite was enhancing in that red area just northwest of KC. Let’s see what happens in the next few hours.
- KC Forecast today: A nearly 100% chance of rain and a few heavy thunderstorms today! Most areas will just have a few showers and thunderstorms, around an hour or so, while other areas may see three or four hours of thunderstorms.
- Saturday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of late night and morning thunderstorms. Light winds with highs in the 80s.
There is a disturbance tracking our way this morning. Some spots are again getting inches of rain, while others get missed.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog featuring the LRC! There was an error in the blog presentation today, so it is being worked on. If you see the differences, just know it is being fixed sometime today.