Good morning bloggers,
The June statistics show how wet it was once again. Since this LRC begin in October only November had below average precipitation, and that was close as 1.59″ still fell, around 0.50″ below average. We are currently in the sixth LRC cycle and it continues to be wet. The chance of above to way above average rainfall is nearly 90% not just this month, but also in August and September. We are on pace for the wettest year in Kansas City’s recorded history.
The winter prediction was close to spot on accurate with my prediction of 26″ of snow for the winter, while Jeff Penner’s LRC analysis had his prediction at 27″. 29″ of snow fell! Predicting a specific number for the amount of snow for an entire winter season is no easy task. Predicting a specific number for the amount of rain for a month or a season is just as difficult. In the spring forecast I made this prediction for the two months period of May and June that just ended.
The weather prediction for May & June rainfall made in April:
The prediction of 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall was actually pretty much spot on once again. We average 5.23″ in May and another 5.23″ in June for a average total of 10.46″ for the two months combined. So, a forecast of 15o% to 200% of average is more specifically 15.69″ to 20.92″. As we can see, the final number fell right into the forecast range, or another spot on LRC prediction. We are forecasting above average rainfall again in July, August, and September, as this pattern continues to cycle.
The Jet Stream continues to weaken and it will reach its weakest strength and farthest north average position in a few weeks, or around the end of the first week of August.
Here is the latest GFS model (left), and the latest European Model (right) showing the prediction of 1″ to 6″ of rain across a rather large area. The flow aloft will become more favorable for complexes of thunderstorms to form north and west of KC and track across the plains during the next two weeks. With the jet stream weakening further, we know we will get the mid-summer version of this years LRC.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog! Have a great day!