Looking Back At The Accurate Seasonal Forecasts

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Good morning bloggers,

The June statistics show how wet it was once again.  Since this LRC begin in October only November had below average precipitation, and that was close as 1.59″ still fell, around 0.50″ below average.  We are currently in the sixth LRC cycle and it continues to be wet. The chance of above to way above average rainfall is nearly 90% not just this month, but also in August and September.  We are on pace for the wettest year in Kansas City’s recorded history.

The winter prediction was close to spot on accurate with my prediction of 26″ of snow for the winter, while Jeff Penner’s LRC analysis had his prediction at 27″.  29″ of snow fell!  Predicting a specific number for the amount of snow for an entire winter season is no easy task.  Predicting a specific number for the amount of rain for a month or a season is just as difficult.  In the spring forecast I made this prediction for the two months period of May and June that just ended.

The weather prediction for May & June rainfall made in April:

The prediction of 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall was actually pretty much spot on once again.  We average 5.23″ in May and another 5.23″ in June for a average total of 10.46″ for the two months combined. So, a forecast of 15o% to 200% of average is more specifically 15.69″ to 20.92″.  As we can see, the final number fell right into the forecast range, or another spot on LRC prediction.   We are forecasting above average rainfall again in July, August, and September, as this pattern continues to cycle.

The Jet Stream continues to weaken and it will reach its weakest strength and farthest north average position in a few weeks, or around the end of the first week of August.

Here is the latest GFS model (left), and the latest European Model (right) showing the prediction of 1″ to 6″ of rain across a rather large area.  The flow aloft will become more favorable for complexes of thunderstorms to form north and west of KC and track across the plains during the next two weeks.  With the jet stream weakening further, we know we will get the mid-summer version of this years LRC.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog! Have a great day!

Gary

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Heat MiserTed in STJoeKS JonesSpookyThree7s Recent comment authors
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Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Hot day more humidity and please keep the rain away and too our north as well…

Spooky
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Spooky

As per usual, the only person openly bitching about the weather is a farmer.

Hard to complain about the weather, and yet, you had plenty in your post about ranchers and farmers needing something to be different about the weather.

I’ve said it many times on here – only people that bitch about the weather no Matter what the weather is, is a farmer.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

People who raise plants for a living are always concerned about weather conditions, but those who live in rest homes with climate control appear to be less concerned.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

As per usual, the only person openly bitching about farmers is this troll.

Go away troll…nobody cares that you are miserable and want to make others feel bad in a failing effort to make yourself feel better.

Nate
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Nate

Wow, not too long ago in the comments section , the only way we could get around in the metro area was with a boat and we had a huge catastrophic Tornado wiping out most of the city which made national headlines for days, now it’s just cracked dirt. How boring

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

It hasn’t rained for 6 days and people complaining about their yards being too dry in what has been the wettest year ever recorded……excuse me while I chuckle to myself. Ranchers and some farmers still need some good dry time for putting up hay and harvesting wheat, we could use a little rain at some point but I am actually loving this summer pattern of hot but not too hot and plenty of rain every so often. Hard to complain about the weather right now

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Cracks in lawns that others have written about is probably due to clay soil. The largest cracks actually appear in clay soils where the soil was the wettest earlier, because clay expands when wet and shrinks when it is dry.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The Fourth of July is only two days away.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Gary,
How to you blow the maps up? I can’t read the numbers. Thanks,
Michael

Johnny
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Johnny

@lenexagirl told me it’s not gonna rain much, so I’ll just take her word for it

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

An incredibly consistent and predictable cycling pattern.

The only time anything was not on time was in February. Starting with the snowfall on February 15, every single LRC event has happened about two days later than it was originally supposed to (if you count out every cycle starting from October).
That’s the one and only inconsistency.

I imagine it will be a long time before we see one like this again.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

So now people get downvoted just for posting information?

I thought I was just making note of the characteristics of this year’s pattern, but apparently that’s deeply personally offensive to some people.

Three7s
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Three7s

Just ignore them. There will always be downvotes regarless, mostly due to trolls.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

25 days until Chiefs training camp begins!

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

In STJOE

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Congrats on the guesses, Gary! Actually looks like you’ve low-balled the actual amounts just a bit. So if we have another precipitation guessing game this summer, I’ll take Gary’s guess plus 5%.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

This LRC has been amazing. The storms have been timely and the precipitation in most cases produced as expected. I can’t believe how quickly this year is moving along. Ready for some rain. GFS pretty optimistic with roughly 5″ over the next two weeks.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

The lawn could use a drink of water. I live on the south side of Overland Park and we have huge cracks in certain areas of the lawn.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I agree Jayhawk. Mine has done OK so far but I can see the heat stress starting on it. Showers will be spotty the next few days but maybe we can get underneath one of those afternoon popups to help us out. I like the fact that the models and the LRC are at least showing opportunities for rain. I haven’t had to water the lawn or landscape that I finished this year too much, thanks to the rains.

Brian
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Brian

My rachio sprinkler just updated it’s watering schedule adding more time to its daily watering. Using local weather stations it is also noticing that it is drying out.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Brian, is that an automated Sprinkler System? So it syncs the watering schedule with local weather stations? How intuitive!

Brian
Guest
Brian

It is. You set up each zone based on shade and soil type and enter your zip code to choose you closest weather station. You don’t have to worry about you system running when its raining.

https://www.rachio.com/

Jason Rann
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Jason Rann

I live in Prairie Village and it’s the same way, big cracks starting to form and the grass is turning brown. Maddening.