Increasing Chances of Rain the Next 7 Days

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Good Sunday bloggers,

It is hard to believe, but today is the last day of June. The first half of 2019 is history and in KC we are 13″ above average rainfall which is on pace to be the wettest calendar year we have ever seen since records began in the late 1880s. June 2019 is going to finish about 2.50″ above average after seeing almost no rain during the first half of the month.

The weather pattern is quite interesting. The main jet stream retreated the last few days as an upper level high formed in the Plains. This upper level high has turned the heat up and shut the faucet off. The upper level high is shrinking and the jet stream is headed back south. This is going to mean fronts and systems will be tracking farther south, which in turn means we are about to see daily or every other day thunderstorms. They will become more widespread and we will have to watch for the potential of the rain to become excessive, leading to rising rivers again. Tropical storm Alvin was the first named storm in the eastern Pacific a few days ago. The surface part of Alvin is drifting over the Pacific Ocean, but the upper level part has tracked into southern California and Nevada. This system may bring us rain on Wednesday.

This is the upper level flow today in graphical form, above is the flow in satellite picture form. You can see the ridge in the middle of the USA and a small upper level high. There is also a summer Polar Vortex west of Hudson’s Bay.

The upper level flow on Wednesday shows a small storm system in our region. This is the remnants of Alvin combined with some other disturbances. The upper level high is gone and the jet stream is headed south.

The upper level flow next Saturday features the jet stream even farther south. This time of year it is not an easy task to get the jet stream to come back south. But, this pattern is an active and wet one, so it is not a surprise to us to see this happen. The upper level high has reformed near the Bahamas. It may grow and bring heat to the southeast USA.

Now, let’s go day by day to the 4th of July.

SUNDAY: It will be hot and humid with no chance of rain. Highs will be in the low 90s with heat index values 100°-108°. It is a bit surprising that we are not in a Heat Advisory. Remember when you get out of the car, remember the kids and pets. Also, drink plenty of water if you are out and about.

MONDAY: There is a 10% chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm as the upper level high is about gone and the door begins to open for rain. Highs will be around 90°.

TUESDAY: The chance of rain in our area increases as a small disturbance or two wander in from the southwest. Highs will be 85° to 90°.

WEDNESDAY: We begin to see better rain chances as the remnants of Alvin combined with another disturbance move into Kansas. Highs will be in the 80s. There is not much of a front so let’s see how organized the rain becomes.

4TH OF JULY MORNING: At this time it looks like we will see a decent chance of rain as the remnants of Alvin slowly move across the area.

4TH OF JULY EVENING: At this time it looks pretty good as the rain moves through during the morning. This is the way it looks now. It is not set in stone, so we will have to update this as we get closer.

The rain chances will continue every day or every other day into the first half of July. Rainfall amounts this month may end up in the 5″ to 10″ range. Some locations could see more, so we will be watching the rivers once again.

Have a happy and safe 4th of July!

Jeff Penner

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Craig
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Craig
JasonAtt
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JasonAtt

I’d put a ring on it. Very cinematic.

LenexaDoc
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LenexaDoc

Awesome video. Thanks for sharing!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The Euro’s 10-day accumulated rain forecast shows heavy rain (7.2”) north of the Nebraska-South Dakota border.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/nebraska/acc-total-precipitation/20190710-1200z.html

Nate
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Nate

Humidity not as bad as yesterday, so technically it’s a blown forecast

Johnny
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Johnny

They said it would hot as hell and it is. 95 94 92 I dont give a shit. Its hot

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Currently (4:43 PM) it is 90° with 59% humidity and a heat index of 99°.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.2976&lon=-94.7139#.XRksJYpOnmo

Jason
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Jason

Others seem to think the heat index will be upper 90’s to near 100 today instead of 100-108, hence heat advisory further North. Will be interesting to see how high it gets.

Ben
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Ben

Hard to believe the month of July getting 10 inches of rain but anything is possible with this pattern we are in.

thetophat
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thetophat

We had a pair of MAJOR rains July 1993 that led to the “super crest” of the Missouri river in our area and the infamous Turkey Creek SW Blvd flood. Fingers crossed nothing like this happens but it certainly is possible………..

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

When? I can find only one day in July 1993 with over 1″ of rain (9th, 1.47″).

The crazy thing about July 1993 isn’t rain amounts, because the amounts were nothing unusual. It’s just that it rained a “normal summer storm” amount almost every single day. 1992 had the deluges.

Adam
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Adam

Snow melt also

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/071993_greatflood
The Great Flood of 1993
There was measurable rain in parts of the upper Mississippi basin on every day between late June and late July. . . In early July, Iowa was hit with numerous record rainfalls. Storm totals of up to 8 inches were again common. . . The city of Des Moines, Iowa, was particularly hard hit by flooding on July 9th.

Adam
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Adam

That flood took out my favorite coffee shop and it never returned. 🙁