Good morning bloggers,
It has been almost 9 months since our last 90 degree day in Kansas City. This streak is 267 days long. It was 91° on October 3rd, or just before this year’s LRC began just a couple of days later. It likely will finally hit 90° today, and then go just above 90° the next few days with very low rain chances. There is a possibility of isolated thunderstorms this weekend, but nothing will be organized until just after the 4th of July. Thunderstorms are organized this morning, however, and right on the Missouri River, upstream from Kansas City. This is just a lot more water flowing into the Missouri River, and we must continue to pay attention to this area as the rivers are above flood stage in so many areas. I-29 is still closed between St. Joseph, MO and Omaha, NE.
The LRC will continue through September, and it will actually begin intensifying again, and then it will then be over; this weather pattern will be over as we move into October in just over 3 months. For now, we get the summer version of this pattern. Take a look:
The blue line, that is the farthest north one I drew in, shows the 570 height line at the 500 mb level, around 18,000 feet up. If you go back and look at all of the maps I have plotted, I draw in that line, and right now it is way up over northern Canada. And, an upper high is located and developing over New Mexico right now. The desert southwest is the favored position for these systems. If there was no cycling pattern, then the upper high would grow powerful and strong over the deserts. The heat building causes this average position during the summer months. The land warms up much more than the oceans at this time of the year, and the land is much colder than the oceans during the winter. These differences actually are a factor in some of the seasonal LRC differences.
Look at what happens by next week on this model:
As you can see above, the 570 line is forecast to dip around a big vortex in Canada within a week! What you are seeing here is flow aloft across the United States. The farther south line is the 588 line on this one map. When there is a major heat wave, the heights are much higher and thunderstorms are suppressed. In this evolving summer pattern, it is far from any major heat wave, nd it will lead to more wide sspreat thunderstorms around seven to ten days from now..
This is all I had time for this morning. Let’s see if we have our first 90 degree day of 2019. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.