Upstream Missouri River Thunderstorms

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Good morning bloggers,

It has been almost 9 months since our last 90 degree day in Kansas City.  This streak is 267 days long.  It was 91° on October 3rd, or just before this year’s LRC began just a couple of days later.  It likely will finally hit 90° today, and then go just above 90° the next few days with very low rain chances. There is a possibility of isolated thunderstorms this weekend, but nothing will be organized until just after the 4th of July.  Thunderstorms are organized this morning, however, and right on the Missouri River, upstream from Kansas City. This is just a lot more water flowing into the Missouri River, and we must continue to pay attention to this area as the rivers are above flood stage in so many areas.  I-29 is still closed between St. Joseph, MO and Omaha, NE.

The LRC will continue through September, and it will actually begin intensifying again, and then it will then be over; this weather pattern will be over as we move into October in just over 3 months.  For now, we get the summer version of this pattern. Take a look:

The blue line, that is the farthest north one I drew in, shows the 570 height line at the 500 mb level, around 18,000 feet up. If you go back and look at all of the maps I have plotted, I draw in that line, and right now it is way up over northern Canada.  And, an upper high is located and developing over New Mexico right now. The desert southwest is the favored position for these systems.  If there was no cycling pattern, then the upper high would grow powerful and strong over the deserts.  The heat building causes this average position during the summer months. The land warms up much more than the oceans at this time of the year, and the land is much colder than the oceans during the winter.  These differences actually are a factor in some of the seasonal LRC differences.

Look at what happens by next week on this model:

As you can see above, the 570 line is forecast to dip around a big vortex in Canada within a week!  What you are seeing here is flow aloft across the United States. The farther south line is the 588 line on this one map.  When there is a major heat wave, the heights are much higher and thunderstorms are suppressed.  In this evolving summer pattern, it is far from any major heat wave, nd it will lead to more wide sspreat thunderstorms around seven to ten days from now..

This is all I had time for this morning.  Let’s see if we have our first 90 degree day of 2019. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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TheGoodOmenf00dl3mizzoufan_87EastOfEdenTed in STJoe Recent comment authors
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Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

It has been an over 90° in Saint Joseph in June, May, and I think in the late part of April.

Dyl
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Dyl

Heat Advisory in effect for most of the viewing area from 1PM to 9PM tomorrow.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=eax&wwa=heat%20advisory
https://www.weather.gov/eax/

Johnny
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Johnny

Somehow it will only hit 89 at the airport

mizzoufan_87
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mizzoufan_87

Ugh gross

Urbanity
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Urbanity

There has always been some discussion on this board about the JRC “July Recurring Cycle”, this year could clearly determine any validity to that claim. The LRC has been about as consistent as ever, to finish the season hot and dry would indicate a pattern change IMO. I am guessing that as the globe warms with this relatively potent El Nino we may see our average to below average regional temps deteriorate in time. These 90’s have me thinking of Fall already.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

What’s the “JRC?”

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I mean the heat wave is not unexpected. The million dollar question is if at the end of July we start to see things in the northern plains / Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska – start to look different. Drier. Right now it’s wet up there, which fits with the LRC in full right now. Let’s see what happens in 3-4 weeks. August last year as I pointed out numerous times is when Iowa and Nebraska even Manhatten KS started seeing un-“LRC like” heavy rainfall and flooding.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Just drove to Omaha on 29. No problems

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
That forecast appears to be specifically for Topeka, where 88° is the average high on this date.
It is presently 90° in Manhattan, and is expected to reach 92° this afternoon. The forecast shows Manhattan should hit 96° every day from tomorrow through Monday.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

I just drove I-29 from St. Joseph to Omaha on Sunday. It’s been open open for a couple weeks now.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

Stop feeding the troll guys….if you see his name, just don’t read his post. Try it, it works.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Heat Mizer
By even mentioning it you are feeding the troll.
We all know to ignore him so don’t feed him by telling us to scroll past his name.
Nuff said

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Shhhh…you are feeding the troll….stop

TheGoodOmen
Guest
TheGoodOmen

Hey Gary, I am a Kansas City person living in Germany. Do you feel the LRC is valid in Europe as well? If so, can I expect another heatwave in the middle of August?

Spooky
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Spooky

Gary has said for years that his theory states the LRC sets up in October every year. If you’ve spent 5 minutes on this blog you know that the jet stream begins strengthening in September. So, yes Humey, the old LRC is still in place when the jet stream begins strengthening again

Why do people continue to live in a flood plain and then bitch when it floods? Life is full of risk. Take the risk, deal with the consequences. Quit being a victim.

Three7s
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Three7s

How do comments with this kind of language continue to make it on to this blog?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Hi spooky
I pity you
Your misery is vividly apparent in the way you callously interact with others and seek to bring them down to your rock bottom level. I hope you find some peace in more constructive ways than trolling a weather blog.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Are you the person that downvotes everybody’s comments regardless of content?

sierravista
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sierravista

I really see nothing wrong with this comment…unless the “b’ word offends you, which I”m sure most of you use from time to time.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Why do people continue to live where it gets hot? “Take the risk, deal with the consequences”
Why do people continue to live where it gets cold? “Take the risk, deal with the consequences”
Why do people still ride roller coasters? “Take the risk, deal with the consequences”
Why do people continue to live where they are vulnerable to blizzards, hurricanes, and tornadoes? “Take the risk, deal with the consequences”
Why do people still live where they are vulnerable to sea level rise? “Take the risk, deal with the consequences”

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Gary…what do you mean by the pattern will intensify in September? Are you alluding to the strengthening of the jet stream going into October? I would maybe argue the old LRC pattern weakens by then as next pattern begins to influence the pattern and makes it morph, even if just slightly, into a same but increasingly different pattern in that same period of mainly August-September. It would not surprise me at all if we got hot and quite dry in August as the pattern begins to take on future 2020 LRC characteristics.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I could swear it’s gotten up to 90 a few times the last month. Including late yesterday.

But I suppose we’re talking about the official temp at the airport.

They should make a 2nd “official” weather station at the downtown airport. That would probably be a much more representative weather station.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

not really, then it would have a hot bias vs a cooler bias. Exchanging one bias for another doesn’t make it more representative IMO

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

I can’t speak for anybody else, but I’ve hit 90 about 5-7 times this Spring/Summer.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That will bias it the opposite direction. Urban heat island.

Put a weather station in Gladstone or something.

benchwarmer
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benchwarmer

I live in Rock Port and FYI I-29 is open, unless it closed during the night last night and I am unware but that does not show on MoDot’s map.

Gant
Guest
Gant

I-29 has been open for the last week. Only the exits are closed between Rock Port, MO and Glenwood, IA, so make sure you’ve got enough gas and bladder space to last for 40 miles.

Kadens Mom
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Kadens Mom

First