It Is Drying Out A Bit: What’s Next?

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Good morning bloggers,

We have a somewhat tricky weather forecast for tonight.  The Storm Prediction Center put our area in to an enhanced slight risk today.  Why?  Well, there is going to be a big increase in low level fuel for thunderstorms in the form of higher 70°+ dew points by this evening.  So, instability will be very high. What is going to trigger the thunderstorms?  The answer is a very weak and weakening/stalling cold front way up to the northwest of Kansas City.  This front will be the focusing mechanism for the thunderstorms.  Let’s take a look at the latest HRRR model that just came out as I was writing this:

The front is likely going to stall in response to a massive summer change that begins today.  The jet stream will be lifting north rather rapidly and this will leave the southern and central plains in much weaker flow aloft by Wednesday.

The main flow aloft today:

And, look at what happens in the next few days:

The Jet Stream will lift way up to the north, while at the same time staying a bit farther south near the west coast.  The next part of the cycling pattern due in July is what Jeff and I have called, “The Trough That Doesn’t Move”.  We will be getting the summer version of this part of the pattern.  It isn’t really a trough that doesn’t move, but a trough that digs into the plains, and then gets replaced by three or four more systems in the plains. They will be weaker in July, but it may still end up being a wet July pattern.  I lean in that direction.

The contest rainfall amounts with 10 days to go:

  • June 11:  0.06″
  • June 12:  0.51″
  • June 13:  None
  • June 14:  0.03″
  • June 15:  1.10″
  • June 18:  0.17″
  • June 19:  0.15″
  • June 21:  2.02″
  • June 22:  2.84″
  • June 23: 0.70″

Total Rainfall For The Contest:  7.55″

Here are the entries for our rainfall total prediction competition.  My total is 5.09″ during the 20 day stretch ending at the end of the month.

Blogger Prediction
Hockeynut69 5.78
Mike Blood 3.8
NoBeachHere 6.83
KirksvilleDave 4.83
Kristi Harris 2.42
Adam 5.1
Steve P 3.03
Numb3rsGuy 3.31
SnowgoPewPew 5.5
Blue Flash 1.7
Heat Mizer 3.47
Johnny 6.19
Michael Casteel 3.11
Clay 7.4
Urbanity 3.45
Dave from Shawnee 4.05
Mr. Pete 3.1
KCMadDog 6.39
JasonA 4.3
DustinTheWind 4.11
Andrew 4.37
Kolton 4.5
Real Humedude 4.5
come on summer 3.5
Brandon Strecker 8.7
Chris S. 2.69
Ryan Johnson 3.6
James L 3.79
Dyl 4.03
Austin Braddock 8.5
Jon B 4.6
Rodney 3.95
Julie 2.53
Noah Finegan 4.12
USMCSergeant 3.87
Miss Jess 3.89
Helen 3.89
Rich (east of Topeka) 2.9
Jeffnks 2.1
EastofEden 2.5
Nick 6.59
G Beebe 1.49
Bobby 3.88
Roger 5.59
Jason (Lawrence) 2.54
WeathermanKumke 5.5
Jobu 8.25
Greenhead 6.8
Nick 5.24
MightyMinni 3.48
Snow Miser 6.66
Three7s 3.36
DIZZYLIZZY 4
Julia 4.3
Dave in Independence 4.69
SnowDays 5.8
Becca 6.25
Randy D 3.1
Mike H 9.41
craig 7.41
AngieF 4.5
Farmgirl 3.78
Highway of Heroes 4.1
RickMcKc 4.51
Brian Gregory 2.25
Clint 8.15
David Cage 2.73
f00dl3 1.22
AVERAGE GUESS 4.499

Could we be done for the month?  Here are the numbers:

The 31.90″ is the most Kansas City has ever had in the first half of a year.  We know that this pattern continues through September. So, the chance of a wet September is high. What happens in July and August will help decide if this ends up being the wettest year in recorded history.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds.  High:  89°
  • Tonight:  Thunderstorms over northern Missouri, near the Iowa and Nebraska borders, will be monitored for any organization and southward turn.  Damaging winds is the main severe weather type expected from this activity tonight. The chance of rain in KC is 30%.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Have a great day and join in the conversation!

Gary

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Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Hmmm, going to get missed, NOT. It just has to rain every other day. Looks like I’m about to get blasted again in Miami county.

Jason
Guest
Jason

As someone who lives just south of Lawrence and may get clipped by this storm, this was a miss. Total miss. Was told nothing would get south of I70

John
Guest
John

When 90 percent of the area does not get rain I would say it was a pretty accurate forecast. That is why there was a 20 percent chance of rain.

Lucas
Guest
Lucas

Will this fall apart the farther it gets from the stationary front?

Jason
Guest
Jason

We sure this stuff is going to fall apart?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Just beginning to get hit by the storm’s gust-front (25 miles north of Manhattan). Incredible wind with lightning on the way. Surf is up on Tuttle Creek Lake.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

NWS has removed any mention of rain from tonight’s forecast.

Matt
Guest
Matt

More of Northern MO under watch.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I thought the NWS said we were going to get hit and that they knew more than Gary? What happened to that?

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

With the latest Convection Outlook from the SPC they state that “Short-term guidance has shown a tendency for lower storm coverage across parts of east-central KS where 30-percent hail probabilities were located in the previous outlook. Have adjusted these probabilities to both communicate this trend in model guidance but also to seemingly reflect where convective potential appears highest across southeast NE according to visible satellite imagery.” But the 18Z NAM3km (or NAMnest), the 19Z HRRR, and the 18Z RAM aren’t showing the popcorn like growth of the storms that are forming. Here’s the radar image for 2041Z from NWS Omaha:… Read more »

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

On air at 5 Gary gave only a 10% chance of anything coming south to KC.
Good news

ginapuff
Guest
ginapuff

Mesoscale Discussion, 80% chance for a watch being issued.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1243.html

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

The annoying thing about these watches and warnings is when you’re watching a Royals game and it gets interrupted by this BEEP! BEEP! THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR … And then it turns into a bust. When I’m watching a Royals game and there’s a potential severe weather event I mute the sound just so I don’t have to hear that.

/rant of the day

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

I don’t exactly know if you’re just ranting about the watches, but you should always take warnings seriously, even if it ends up being a bust.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Mostly complaining about the watches. They also don’t need to do this annoying BEEP BEEP interruption of the game. A banner would be sufficient.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

thats to get the attention of anyone with the t.v. on but not watching it…it needs to be there

Matt
Guest
Matt

Wasn’t for KC it’s self.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Nice write up by the Pleasant Hill mets today on the weather set up.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Today is Jun 25th, which means there’s only 6 months until Christmas.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

4th of July is so much closer…

Todd J.
Guest
Todd J.

Gary, when will you, or have you already posted the LRC mapping for the hurricane forecast? I would be very interested in seeing that!
Thank you – Todd

Michele Springs
Guest

When you say the front stalls north does that mean Saint Joseph will be spared ?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

So as we drown in wet weather, and have had a fairly cool start to the summer (both May and June so far), Europe is roasting this week. They will have temperatures averaging 20 to 30 degrees warmer than normal. This will be horrible for them since they usually have cooler weather and do not necessarily have air conditioning in many locations. Paris and Berlin could reach 100 degrees, and even Denmark will be in the 80s. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/24/potentially-historic-deadly-early-summer-heat-wave-roast-europe-peaking-midweek/?utm_term=.4b7f160f1cb6 Gary, I do hope that July/August does not turn out to be wet and cool. I want to use the pool this… Read more »

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Thanks Gary
So you are leaning to no severe storms tonight ?
That sounds great to me. Don’t want those damaging winds. Seems those have been a factor with every system thus far. Lot of tree damage. Hoping not much rain either ! Need a break.

SPC has us in enhanced slight risk ? I thought those were two separate categories. Enhanced or slight. I don’t pay attention to those enough !

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

Enhanced is really just an enhanced slight risk, but yes they are separate categories per SPC

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Thanks Alex. Gary said enhanced slight risk and I thought they were separate.
The categories and colors of orange, yellow – enhanced, slight, don’t raise any flags for me. Except when it shows red that’s when I pay more attention.

matt
Guest
matt

Enhanced Risk expand in KS.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well the good news is by August the pattern usually changes every year. Flood of ’93 dried up in August, and last year our pattern went from drought to wet especially across Iowa and Nebraska in late July/early August. I expect us to have small signs of the next LRC set up here in a few weeks. They may not be in their final position but there will be subtle changes with where things set up and track.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m very curious about how the old influences the new. 2017-2018’s pattern ended on the “two cold days” part: most clearly visible in the two cold days at the end of January 2018, and the only two non-hot days in May 2018 (the 20th and 21st). Could that have been the reason for this year’s cool and wet pattern?

And if so, does that mean 19-20 will be hot and dry? This LRC ends on the “four day heatwave” part I mentioned a few days ago in another comment.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Southward movement of the sun. I’m still not 100 percent sold anyone can pin down our crazy, ever changing great plains weather BUT do feel Gary equating the new weather pattern/cycling to sunset at the North pole/upper Arctic is spot on. 1993 is still a vivid, horrible memory as my workplace flooded about 2.5 feet. Had to spend six weeks cleaning up that God awful mess and the first few days with no power and 100 degree heat. Hope to heck that does not repeat this July but this pattern is eerily similar (the persistent trough caused two HUGE rains… Read more »

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Not done for the month. Line of storms comes through tonight…strong to severe.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Great, I hate severe weather! Looks like we might be under the gun,
Michael

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

First!