Good morning bloggers,
We have a somewhat tricky weather forecast for tonight. The Storm Prediction Center put our area in to an enhanced slight risk today. Why? Well, there is going to be a big increase in low level fuel for thunderstorms in the form of higher 70°+ dew points by this evening. So, instability will be very high. What is going to trigger the thunderstorms? The answer is a very weak and weakening/stalling cold front way up to the northwest of Kansas City. This front will be the focusing mechanism for the thunderstorms. Let’s take a look at the latest HRRR model that just came out as I was writing this:
The front is likely going to stall in response to a massive summer change that begins today. The jet stream will be lifting north rather rapidly and this will leave the southern and central plains in much weaker flow aloft by Wednesday.
The main flow aloft today:
And, look at what happens in the next few days:
The Jet Stream will lift way up to the north, while at the same time staying a bit farther south near the west coast. The next part of the cycling pattern due in July is what Jeff and I have called, “The Trough That Doesn’t Move”. We will be getting the summer version of this part of the pattern. It isn’t really a trough that doesn’t move, but a trough that digs into the plains, and then gets replaced by three or four more systems in the plains. They will be weaker in July, but it may still end up being a wet July pattern. I lean in that direction.
The contest rainfall amounts with 10 days to go:
- June 11: 0.06″
- June 12: 0.51″
- June 13: None
- June 14: 0.03″
- June 15: 1.10″
- June 18: 0.17″
- June 19: 0.15″
- June 21: 2.02″
- June 22: 2.84″
- June 23: 0.70″
Total Rainfall For The Contest: 7.55″
Here are the entries for our rainfall total prediction competition. My total is 5.09″ during the 20 day stretch ending at the end of the month.
|Dave from Shawnee||4.05|
|come on summer||3.5|
|Rich (east of Topeka)||2.9|
|Dave in Independence||4.69|
|Highway of Heroes||4.1|
Could we be done for the month? Here are the numbers:
The 31.90″ is the most Kansas City has ever had in the first half of a year. We know that this pattern continues through September. So, the chance of a wet September is high. What happens in July and August will help decide if this ends up being the wettest year in recorded history.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds. High: 89°
- Tonight: Thunderstorms over northern Missouri, near the Iowa and Nebraska borders, will be monitored for any organization and southward turn. Damaging winds is the main severe weather type expected from this activity tonight. The chance of rain in KC is 30%.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great day and join in the conversation!