Insight Into The LRC & How Much Rain In Next 15 Days?

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Good morning bloggers,

Today, we are going to begin our second weather forecasting contest of the year.  How much rain will fall between now and the end of the month.   We will discuss the two camps that bloggers fall into; and, we will discuss the LRC accuracy, and a look at this weather pattern.

There are two main camps of bloggers, as I see it.  There are many of you who likely follow this blog and are impressed and amazed with the predictions Weather2020 has made during the past two years.  And, then there is another camp of bloggers who are highly critical of any successful predictions thinking it impossible, and these readers and commenters on the blog tend to look for one bad prediction and act as if none of the other accurate predictions existed.  Now, in the past two years I will argue that there have been very few, if any, predictions of the pattern that did not cycle through and produce what was predicted weeks to months before by our weather team at Weather2020.  Examples are many including the return of the blizzard part of the cycling pattern with the 1 foot KC metro area snowstorm on January 12th predicted 45 days in advance, and then its return again in early March with our last measurable snowfall of the season. That last snow, on March 3, produced nearly 3″ (2.8″ at KCI). Remember until the blizzard on November 25, KC had gone nearly FIVE years without a 3″ snowfall.  As we have been sharing with you for almost two decades on the blog, only one thing can account for these predictions being made weeks to months in advance.  The only way it is being done is by understanding the LRC.  Here is an article that came out in the KC Star:

I have never even had a conversation with the writer of this article.  I wonder what she thinks about our nearly perfect spring forecast now that summer is approaching.  Weather2020 has had a “pulse” on this weather pattern since it began in October.

Right now, everything is continuing to be right on schedule, as it should be. The new pattern does not evolve and settle in for another 115 days or so.  We will continue to experience this years LRC through the summer.  I am currently in Europe, arriving in Italy yesterday; in Venice, such a unique city, just beautiful, old, and special.  While here in Europe, I finally put my finger on the LRC over this continent, and yes, it is the same weather pattern cycling here as it is in the United States. Go look at a blog from a few days ago, and you will be able to see how far north Europe is, so this part of the world continues to be more in the flow of the winter jet stream as it weakens and lifts north.

The LRC Over Europe:

Just look at this comparison above.  This is the 500 mb flow from November 21 and June 6.  Look at the upper low over Great Britain in each picture, not to mention all of the other features.  This is just a great example that the entire Northern Hemisphere is influenced by the LRC as is in my peer reviewed and published hypothesis,”Cycling Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere”.

Just a couple days later, in what we have called “the blizzard part of the cycling weather pattern”,  Kansas City had north winds gusting to 30 mph yesterday.  Yes, that part of the pattern just cycled through, and it produced tremendous rains over western Kansas.  It just, and for the first time in six cycles, left KC dry this time. And, yes, welcome to cycle 6 of this years LRC.

This weeks weather pattern:

What happened five to ten days after the “blizzard part of the cycling weather pattern”?  Remember the “Bomb Cyclone”?

This picture above shows the “Bomb Cyclone” on March 13th.  Between March 8th and March 13th two storm systems moved out over the western states and out over the plains states and created two major and powerful storm systems, the second of which become one of the two “Bomb Cyclones” created this season.  We are moving into this part of the pattern again, and yes, it has produced significant weather in most of the other cycles as well.  We are now going to experience the June version.  As summer is now just eleven days away from beginning, the jet stream is weakening and shifting north.  This cycle 6 version of these two systems are on most of the models.

This next map below shows one of the solutions for Tuesday night. A cold front is forecast to develop and approach the area Tuesday night. This map is valid at 1 AM Wednesday and it shows a nice band of thunderstorms extending from Minnesota south into northwest Texas.

The jet stream is weaker, as summer is about to arrive.  There is not even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms at this moment.  Then, look at the Friday night into Saturday morning storm system.

This is a fairly strong June cold front approaching.  Let’s see how these set up in the next few days.

Rainfall Forecast From GFS-FV3 Model:  Next 15 Days

The Weather Prediction Challenge:  How much rain will fall ending June 30th at midnight?

Enter the weather forecast contest by putting your total into this blog entry, and the deadline is when Jeff posts tomorrow’s blog.  I will post my prediction later on.  So, it will be a 20 day total!  Good luck.  The winner will be crowned Weather Predictor of the month!

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. A gorgeous day with a north breeze at around 10 mph.  High:  79°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with light winds and a high of 79°
  • Tuesday night – Wednesday:  A chance of thunderstorms into early Wednesday morning, then mostly sunny and cooler. Near Perfect weather with a high of 71°.  Wednesday night may drop into the upper 40s.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We hope you participate in today’s weather prediction challenge. The deadline to enter is midnight tonight.

Gary

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C KerfeldNateHeat MizerDylDave from Shawnee Recent comment authors
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C Kerfeld
Guest

I’m predicting 9.1″ for Blue Springs. And 7.9″ at KCI.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Are women incapable of doing a blog entry or is the technical stuff left to the guys and the women just do Facebook and other little social media stuff?

DustinTheWind
Guest
DustinTheWind

A lot of these came in well after the proposed deadline, but here’s everything that was guessed up until about 2 pm today, June 11. Hopefully nobody shoots the messenger. Blogger Prediction Hockeynut69 5.78 Mike Blood 3.8 NoBeachHere 6.83 KirksvilleDave 4.83 Kristi Harris 2.42 Adam 5.1 Steve P 3.03 Numb3rsGuy 3.31 SnowgoPewPew 5.5 Blue Flash 1.7 Heat Mizer 3.47 Johnny 6.19 Michael Casteel 3.11 Clay 7.4 Urbanity 3.45 Dave from Shawnee 4.05 Mr. Pete 3.1 KCMadDog 6.39 JasonA 4.3 DustinTheWind 4.11 Andrew 4.37 Kolton 4.5 Real Humedude 4.5 come on summer 3.5 Brandon Strecker 8.7 Chris S. 2.69 Ryan Johnson… Read more »

DustinTheWind
Guest
DustinTheWind

It definitely wiped out my formatting. Cool.

Dave from Shawnee
Guest
Dave from Shawnee

Dust, thanks for compiling!

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Thank you!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

1.22″. We have dried out real fast, and we are in the dry cycle.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Check out 12z GFS

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1

That’s in the 6 to 7″ range for the 16 day period

Clint
Guest
Clint

Over a foot for Truman Lake area. That could be catastrophic.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I’m definitely thinking lower than average amounts, but that might be a bit too low…

David Cage
Guest
David Cage

If measured at the airport I predict 2.73 inches….If at the Plaza I predict 3.28…

Clint
Guest
Clint

8.15 inches and for the record I hate that stats are kept at KCI

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary
Snowfall contest was measured at kshb right?
Maybe this fun 20 day rainfall contest should be at kshb too.
And hey, hope the cut on your head heals fine ! Bet that was a bell ringer.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

If were using KCI – then I am lowering my amounts to 3.1 inches. I didn’t see the measurement point posted when I made my initial prediction yesterday.

Brian Gregory
Guest
Brian Gregory

2.25″

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

4.51 @KCI

We have had very few rains that have not been downpours >.75″ this spring. There will be 5 or 6 of those before the end of the month.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

One year ago today 95 degrees at 8:30 pm
What a difference each new LRC makes !

Highway of Heroes
Guest
Highway of Heroes

4.10 inches of rain by months end.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

3.78 at KCI.

4.25 near La Cygne, KS

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Sucks using KCI as the measurement point. That’s like 25 miles from where I live. Mine as well use Lawrence or Harrisonville.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

It’s 25 miles from just about everyone. Rainfall may even out there but the temperatures never do. They might as well have picked Old McDonald’s cow pasture. But its not like the snowfall contest where you can just stick a ruler in the ground. They need a spot that has reliable measurements.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Well at least they use the station location on the plaza for the snowflake contest – somewhat centralized.

AngieF
Guest
AngieF

4.5 inches!

craig
Guest
craig

Late entry but I’ll take 7.41″

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

9.41

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

I am going with 3.10 inches

Becca
Guest
Becca

I am going with 6.25 inches.

Becca
Guest
Becca

I am going with 6.25 inches.

SnowDays
Guest
SnowDays

I’m going to go with 5.8 at KCI and 6.2 in South OP

Dave in Independence
Guest
Dave in Independence

Im going with 4.69 inches this month.

Julia
Guest
Julia

4.3 inches

DIZZYLIZZY
Guest
DIZZYLIZZY

I WILL GO WITH 4.0 FOR NEXT 15 DAYS….

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I’ll go with 3.36 inches by the end of the month.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

6.66 inches.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Yikes!

MightyMinni
Member
MightyMinni

Going to go with the trend of the heavier precip going around us. 3.48in

Nick
Guest
Nick

5.24 inches

Greenhead
Guest
Greenhead

I will go with 6.8 at kci. They will get hit with a training event at least once

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

8.25″

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Going with 5.5 inches in June.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Anybody down playing our rain threat due to other cycles…. you haven’t assessed the pattern correctly. This LRC is a rain producing juggernaut, do not doubt it in MCS season. I’m worried we will go right back into a flooding situation, GFS is WET WET WET. Last EURO run I saw at 6Z was same story, haven’t seen the latest run

LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

i really dont think its going to rain that much

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Shocking

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Quantify?

Jason (Lawrence)
Guest
Jason (Lawrence)

I’ll go with 2.54″

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The Euro model predicts only 0.8” of rain will fall in this area (25 miles north of Manhattan) between now and 7 PM on the 19th, and if the 1/8” we got so far this month is added to it, that would be an unusually dry spell for what is normally our wettest weeks of the year.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/acc-total-precipitation/20190620-0000z.html

Roger
Guest
Roger

5.59″ inches in KC. Somebody in SE Kansas will see a foot of rain. Winfield, KS recorded 6.25″ a couple days ago.

Bobby
Guest
Bobby

3.88″

G Beebe
Guest
G Beebe

My prediction for the rest of June: 1.49 inches. I agree with East of Eden about even/odds… If I calculated correctly; looks like in February it snowed almost every day during the corresponding period in cycle 3, cycle 4 (March) 1.44 inches, and cycle 5 (April/May) a whopping 6.5+” in the same 20 days or so. WOW! It sounds weird to say we could get less but with the summer jet stream pattern setting up could we actually start drying out? The risk with a low number is that if we get one good T Storm over KCI my prediction… Read more »

Nick
Guest
Nick

6.59 inches at KCI and 2.1 inches at KSTJ. 😛

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

2.5″ between now and the end of the month. I’ve been saying it forever, even-numbered cycles are average-to-warm and dry, odd-numbered cycles are cold and wet.

I also think the streak of above-average Junes (since 2015) will continue. I expect June to be consistently slightly above average, with no major heatwaves.

Jeffnks
Guest
Jeffnks

Hello all. I will guess for you all up in KC 3.45″ Since I live in Wichita I am going to say down here we will get 2.10″ good luck.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Official prediction (KCI): 2.9 inches
At my house: 1.1 inches

Helen
Guest
Helen

I would say 3.89 for total end of June.

Miss Jess
Guest
Miss Jess

My prediction is 3.89 inches

USMCSergeant
Guest
USMCSergeant

3.87 inches

Noah Finegan
Guest
Noah Finegan

4.12 inches

Julie
Guest
Julie

2.53 inches

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I will say 3.95” by the end of June.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Jon B
Guest
Jon B

4.6″

Austin Braddock
Guest
Austin Braddock

8.5 inches of rain