Good morning bloggers,
Today, we are going to begin our second weather forecasting contest of the year. How much rain will fall between now and the end of the month. We will discuss the two camps that bloggers fall into; and, we will discuss the LRC accuracy, and a look at this weather pattern.
There are two main camps of bloggers, as I see it. There are many of you who likely follow this blog and are impressed and amazed with the predictions Weather2020 has made during the past two years. And, then there is another camp of bloggers who are highly critical of any successful predictions thinking it impossible, and these readers and commenters on the blog tend to look for one bad prediction and act as if none of the other accurate predictions existed. Now, in the past two years I will argue that there have been very few, if any, predictions of the pattern that did not cycle through and produce what was predicted weeks to months before by our weather team at Weather2020. Examples are many including the return of the blizzard part of the cycling pattern with the 1 foot KC metro area snowstorm on January 12th predicted 45 days in advance, and then its return again in early March with our last measurable snowfall of the season. That last snow, on March 3, produced nearly 3″ (2.8″ at KCI). Remember until the blizzard on November 25, KC had gone nearly FIVE years without a 3″ snowfall. As we have been sharing with you for almost two decades on the blog, only one thing can account for these predictions being made weeks to months in advance. The only way it is being done is by understanding the LRC. Here is an article that came out in the KC Star:
I have never even had a conversation with the writer of this article. I wonder what she thinks about our nearly perfect spring forecast now that summer is approaching. Weather2020 has had a “pulse” on this weather pattern since it began in October.
Right now, everything is continuing to be right on schedule, as it should be. The new pattern does not evolve and settle in for another 115 days or so. We will continue to experience this years LRC through the summer. I am currently in Europe, arriving in Italy yesterday; in Venice, such a unique city, just beautiful, old, and special. While here in Europe, I finally put my finger on the LRC over this continent, and yes, it is the same weather pattern cycling here as it is in the United States. Go look at a blog from a few days ago, and you will be able to see how far north Europe is, so this part of the world continues to be more in the flow of the winter jet stream as it weakens and lifts north.
The LRC Over Europe:
Just look at this comparison above. This is the 500 mb flow from November 21 and June 6. Look at the upper low over Great Britain in each picture, not to mention all of the other features. This is just a great example that the entire Northern Hemisphere is influenced by the LRC as is in my peer reviewed and published hypothesis,”Cycling Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere”.
Just a couple days later, in what we have called “the blizzard part of the cycling weather pattern”, Kansas City had north winds gusting to 30 mph yesterday. Yes, that part of the pattern just cycled through, and it produced tremendous rains over western Kansas. It just, and for the first time in six cycles, left KC dry this time. And, yes, welcome to cycle 6 of this years LRC.
This weeks weather pattern:
What happened five to ten days after the “blizzard part of the cycling weather pattern”? Remember the “Bomb Cyclone”?
This picture above shows the “Bomb Cyclone” on March 13th. Between March 8th and March 13th two storm systems moved out over the western states and out over the plains states and created two major and powerful storm systems, the second of which become one of the two “Bomb Cyclones” created this season. We are moving into this part of the pattern again, and yes, it has produced significant weather in most of the other cycles as well. We are now going to experience the June version. As summer is now just eleven days away from beginning, the jet stream is weakening and shifting north. This cycle 6 version of these two systems are on most of the models.
This next map below shows one of the solutions for Tuesday night. A cold front is forecast to develop and approach the area Tuesday night. This map is valid at 1 AM Wednesday and it shows a nice band of thunderstorms extending from Minnesota south into northwest Texas.
The jet stream is weaker, as summer is about to arrive. There is not even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms at this moment. Then, look at the Friday night into Saturday morning storm system.
This is a fairly strong June cold front approaching. Let’s see how these set up in the next few days.
Rainfall Forecast From GFS-FV3 Model: Next 15 Days
The Weather Prediction Challenge: How much rain will fall ending June 30th at midnight?
Enter the weather forecast contest by putting your total into this blog entry, and the deadline is when Jeff posts tomorrow’s blog. I will post my prediction later on. So, it will be a 20 day total! Good luck. The winner will be crowned Weather Predictor of the month!
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Mostly sunny. A gorgeous day with a north breeze at around 10 mph. High: 79°
- Tuesday: Mostly sunny with light winds and a high of 79°
- Tuesday night – Wednesday: A chance of thunderstorms into early Wednesday morning, then mostly sunny and cooler. Near Perfect weather with a high of 71°. Wednesday night may drop into the upper 40s.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We hope you participate in today’s weather prediction challenge. The deadline to enter is midnight tonight.