Summer Begins In 15 Days

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Good morning bloggers,

Well, I am writing this at 2 PM Geneva, Switzerland time, and we are 7 hours ahead of you.  It is a cloudy and wet day here in Geneva after three straight days in the 80s.  There were a few thunderstorms yesterday evening and it was fun to watch them form with the local effects.  The conference has gone well.  I had some interesting conversations today with some of the many weather companies on display at the Meteorological Technology World Expo.   The conversation about the LRC ends up in the same space with these looks of wonderment.

Onto our weather:

At 3 AM your time this radar image looked a little like Europe?  That’s Spain & Portugal on the lower left, with Great Britain far upper left.  Well, I must have Europe on my mind. There had to be a few spots that had 2″ of rain last night.  If you were underneath one of those enhanced thunderstorms, then I am certain it rained that much. KCI Airport had a whopping 0.06″.

Summer is now 15 days away. The jet stream continues to weaken and shift north.  The same pattern continues to cycle and we are now at the beginning of Cycle 6 of this years LRC.  Most of the models have enough flow aloft to increase rain chances in these two weeks before summer gets here with 2″ to 6″ in our area, while a lot more falls over the southeastern USA where it has been a bit drier until recently.

I have to get back into the conference.  Have a great day everyone.

Gary

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Johnny
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Johnny

Test

Roger
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Roger

Winfield/Arkansas City, KS reports 6.25 inches of rain since 6 AM. An example of how much deluge a small cluster of storms can produce. Most areas have seen only a trace-.25.

craig
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craig

Here’s we go again with the blocked up systems and SW flow.
Get your buckets ready and check your sump pump…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2019060612&fh=384

Kurt
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Kurt

That’s isn’t too much rain for this time of year. I’d welcome that amount of rain on my property. This is day 9 without measurable precip and in the last 15 days we’ve had less than 2 inches. While we’ve had widespread heavy rains there are areas that haven’t had those heavy rains. I say bring me some of these nice downpours that others have been experiencing.

Roger
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Roger

Same here in central Kansas. We may go 3 straight weeks with none.

farmermike
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farmermike

SAME FOR CLOUD COUNTY — the newly planted crops need a drink as topsoil has dried out a lot

craig
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craig

Please allow me to restate my point…
Look at the flow aloft that will re-establish next week. It has been dry for a week here due to NW flow.
What the GFS-FV3 shows is a switch back to SW flow with an anchored upper low in the southwest.
As this spits out energy into the plains, the rains will increase again and the total precipitation forecast will grow. Already, it shows 8-10″ in Nebraska and Iowa over the next 14 days…most of it in the 5-14 day back end.

DustinTheWind
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DustinTheWind

I think you’re right, Craig. We have had dry spells leading up to the beginning of a new cycle on more than one occasion, so the last 7-10 dry days have fit the pattern. The FV3 looks like it’s starting to pick up on the systems that have brought us heavy precipitation in past cycles. The LRC would suggest that it WILL happen. If it doesn’t then we’re probably in for a relatively dry 7 weeks.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

I hope you’re right. It’s getting pretty dry in Independence so we could use the wet pattern. 0.25″ in the last 12 days. Just watched Gerard, probably no rain in the next seven days.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Had a whopping 2.20 inches of rain on the west side of Olathe. Thunderstorms formed last night off that frontal boundary and then slowly moved North before stalling and raining itself out. Had one cell around 1:30AM that briefly produced Dime to even Quarter size hail and max wins around 35-40mph. Lots of lightning as well.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

I had a quick 1.25 inches last night north of La Cygne. My muddy lot was experiencing a drought and I was getting concerned (yes, I am being snarky). 🙂 We need a dry stretch to start haying as the grass is in it’s prime nutritional phase right now. Doesn’t look too promising though.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Gary
Thanks for taking the time to write the blog.
So “ The conversation about the LRC ends up in the same space with these looks of wonderment.”
Does that mean they can see it ( believe it ) ? It Is great that you have a global audience to share it with at the expo ! Conversations can be difficult if there is a language barrier.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

No rain up here in the “Ville”, however there was a Severe Thunder Storm Warming n Southeastern Nodaway County last night around six pm. Heard of small hail and heavy down pours. Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Three7s
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Three7s

The fact that this storm has produced in every cycle with wide-spread amounts until this one is very telling. We all want a dry stretch, I think it’s coming.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I got about 2″ last night at the farm, the storm is stretched out so it didn’t focus the thunderstorms like previous cycles. It has dried up some, but I’m not sure its ready to dry up on a longer term just yet, maybe towards the end of the month. NW flow may have something to say about that but its hard to predict those subtle features. My hay fields were finally dry enough to cut yesterday but the storm chances scared us from cutting, good thing because it really poured last night and still raining down here lightly.

Kurt
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Kurt

No rain here, felt the outlflow from northwest and northcentral Missouri storms arrive around 7:00 p.m. then cleared off until late last night. Everything reformed southwest of here. Very interesting and someone puzzling as to the difference in what appears to be multi year rainfall patterns.

DustinTheWind
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DustinTheWind

I really hope you’re right. Next week is when the ‘Bomb Cyclone’ part of the pattern cycles back through. It will be interesting to see what it produces. If it remains relatively quiet through next weekend, then it will be definitely be very telling of what Cycle 6 will look like.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I haven’t looked at the timing but next week appears to be the cooler part of the LRC. Happy Friday Eve! Finally getting home tonight. Then it’s time to mow.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It’s the continuation of the cool part before the warmth comes back. Like how the two weeks following the November blizzard were cold, even during a warm cycle.

“Storm 1” takes on the characteristics of the preceding cycle.