Good morning bloggers,
It is a beautiful day in Geneva, Switzerland. I am getting ready to head out to lunch as it is almost noon, 8 hours later than in Kansas City. I was just spending some time analyzing the LRC, and I just found it for Europe and it is also right on cycle as I hypothesized that it would be, as the there is Order In Chaos as described by the LRC. Welcome to the sixth cycle of the LRC which is beginning in the next couple of days.
This part of the pattern has produced a precipitation producing storm in KC in all previous cycles, so just using the LRC we would place a nearly 100% chance of rain during this next stretch of days. In cycle 1, KC received almost 10 inches of rain in the region during this next part of the cycling pattern. In cycle 2, shown above, a storm produced the blizzard and KC’s first 3″ snowstorm in almost five years. Then, in cycle 3, a 1 foot snowstorm hit the KC metro area. And now, an upper low is forecast to develop in a similar position in June. This June version will be interesting to see form during the next 48 hours.
El Niño is highly likely one of the biggest influences on the cycling pattern. I think we would all agree that this weather pattern, we are experiencing now, is quite different that the one in 2015 and the 2016 pattern. The El Niño index is similar now to the ones of those other years.
In this past week, the tropical Pacific Ocean water actually warmed up a bit and is close to the warmest it has been since this warming began. El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters, and for it to be a full blown El Niño event we must have five consecutive three month periods where the average is 0.5°C above average or higher. We are currently in our seventh straight period, and we have been in a full blown El Niño event for months now, and really for this entire LRC. The LRC is the centerpiece of the complex atmospheric puzzle. The LRC may actually be a combination of all of the forces, a few of which we have a little understanding, and a few that are still being discovered. The LRC describes the Order In Chaos, and we have used this understanding of the cycling pattern to make accurate prediction after accurate prediction from a few hours out to now 8 months out and counting, since the LRC set up in early October.
El Niño is predicted to weaken and fade into a neutral winter, and yet it is far from certain it will do this. These predictions change from week to week.
So, what does this mean for KC? As shown in the LRC map comparison, the storm developing in the next two days is right on schedule and proof that the 2018-2019 LRC is in full force as summer approaches. We are about to experience the summer version of this pattern.
Kansas City Weather Forecast Timeline:
- Today: A few periods of clouds with a chance of a few thunderstorms. High: 84°
- Tonight: A chance of a few thunderstorms. Low: 68°
- Wednesday: A chance of a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. High: 87°
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog and sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC and the cycling weather pattern. Join in the conversation as we all learn together. Tomorrow, I will be opening the Meteorological Technology World Expo, and the WMO Global Council is meeting this week as well. I have already bumped into some rather interesting meteorologists. Have a great day!