El Niño Strengthens As Summer Approaches

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Good morning bloggers,

It is a beautiful day in Geneva, Switzerland.  I am getting ready to head out to lunch as it is almost noon, 8 hours later than in Kansas City.  I was just spending some time analyzing the LRC, and I just found it for Europe and it is also right on cycle as I hypothesized that it would be, as the there is Order In Chaos as described by the LRC.  Welcome to the sixth cycle of the LRC which is beginning in the next couple of days.

This part of the pattern has produced a precipitation producing storm in KC in all previous cycles, so just using the LRC we would place a nearly 100% chance of rain during this next stretch of days.  In cycle 1, KC received almost 10 inches of rain in the region during this next part of the cycling pattern. In cycle 2, shown above, a storm produced the blizzard and KC’s first 3″ snowstorm in almost five years.  Then, in cycle 3, a 1 foot snowstorm hit the KC metro area.  And now, an upper low is forecast to develop in a similar position in June.  This June version will be interesting to see form during the next 48 hours.

El Niño

El Niño is highly likely one of the biggest influences on the cycling pattern.  I think we would all agree that this weather pattern, we are experiencing now, is quite different that the one in 2015 and the 2016 pattern.  The El Niño index is similar now to the ones of those other years.

In this past week, the tropical Pacific Ocean water actually warmed up a bit and is close to the warmest it has been since this warming began.  El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters, and for it to be a full blown El Niño event we must have five consecutive three month periods where the average is 0.5°C above average or higher.  We are currently in our seventh straight period, and we have been in a full blown El Niño event for months now, and really for this entire LRC.   The LRC is the centerpiece of the complex atmospheric puzzle.  The LRC may actually be a combination of all of the forces, a few of which we have a little understanding, and a few that are still being discovered.  The LRC describes the Order In Chaos, and we have used this understanding of the cycling pattern to make accurate prediction after accurate prediction from a few hours out to now 8 months out and counting, since the LRC set up in early October.

El Niño is predicted to weaken and fade into a neutral winter, and yet it is far from certain it will do this. These predictions change from week to week.

So, what does this mean for KC? As shown in the LRC map comparison, the storm developing in the next two days is right on schedule and proof that the 2018-2019 LRC is in full force as summer approaches. We are about to experience the summer version of this pattern.

Kansas City Weather Forecast Timeline:

  • Today: A few periods of clouds with a chance of a few thunderstorms.  High:  84°
  • Tonight:  A chance of a few thunderstorms.  Low:  68°
  • Wednesday:  A chance of a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  High:  87°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog and sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC and the cycling weather pattern.  Join in the conversation as we all learn together.  Tomorrow, I will be opening the Meteorological Technology World Expo, and the WMO Global Council is meeting this week as well. I have already bumped into some rather interesting meteorologists.  Have a great day!

Gary

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Mike HREAL HUMEDUDEJason Rannf00dl3Nick Recent comment authors
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Roger
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

You know they say that every month is the warmest month on record. I never recall a month not being the warmest X month on record. Amazing how we are always warmer no matter what out weather here in KC does. I imagine this was the warmest Winter on record?

Nick
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Nick

Warmest or close to the warmest globally. Also the majority of the warming is occurring at higher latitudes, look at the number of all time record highs vs. The number of all time record lows for stations that have a period of record 40 years or more globally its not even close.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The majority of the warming is being recorded in areas where humans have not inhabited and the observations are based off satellite imagery which continues to get more accurate each time a new satellite is launched. In other words it’s quite possible that all the numbers could be skewed due to data interpretation of satellite temperatures in Kelvin as we don’t have people up there making daily CF6 observations since 1860s like at KCI.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Except for the fact the ice is disappearing at exponential rates. That’s the dead give away there has been a significant change vs eons past. Many of the glaciers disappearing have ice thats 30-50K years old, so hasn’t happened in at least 30-50K years.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Strange. What’s up with the kshb blog
Last one was May 23.

Jason (Lawrence)
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Jason (Lawrence)

Gary mentioned recently they were having some issues with it.

Johnny
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Johnny

Drought is on its way

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Not

Roger
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Roger

In the last 5 years, it’s been either feast or famine. There is no true hydrological cycle anymore. Rainfall patterns across the world are chaotic.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Pattern is really drying out. Tonight’s rain chance now gone on models too. We need this!

John
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John

I agree there is not anyone within 500 miles of KC that is asking for more rain. Even after 6 days without rain where I live the ground is still like a swamp. I am glad the heavy rain did not happen this week.

Three7s
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Three7s

I called the dry cycle because every even cycle we’ve had has been dry compared to the odd numbered cycle. I’d expect the rain machine with a lot of MCS setups to return in cycle 7.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

by then the next pattern will be emerging, even if its just 10% new pattern at that time the differences can be dramatic towards later summer period.

Mike h
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Mike h

I agree, you look at what happened last year in August was completely different than the rest of the pattern.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

I have large cracks in my yard and I live on the south side of Overland Park.

Jason Rann
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Jason Rann

Me too and I live in Prairie Village, it’s insane. I swear the water must just all run off.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

Yard will need watering if we get missed tonight.

Jason Rann
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Jason Rann

I learned a very valuable lesson from a structural engineer today. With the dry months to start last summer, the wet August and all the rain lately, we have noticed a lot of new cracks in our walls. We are on a slab foundation. Found out today the cracks are due to seasonal moisture and NOT due to serious foundation issues. That said, the engineer told me it is critical to water if we go a few days without moisture. I will absolutely be taking that advice!

Kurt
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Kurt

I was hoping for rain this week, our area was missed to the north and south by the flooding rains only had 1.25 inches last week and this our 8th dry day now. St. Joseph is actually only a couple inches above normal YTD. Would be nice not to have to water containers, but used to that in the summer months. Should help farmers not flooded get what they plan on planting done at least in the immediate area surrounding St. Joseph if they were impacted by the river flooding. Just an odd pattern to be wet then switch to… Read more »

Nate
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Nate

Yes, I’m getting them too. Probably the biggest cracks I’ve seen here

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It’s actually starting to get a bit boring.

However, I’ll be out of town Saturday-Thursday so I won’t care. 😀 I think I’d rather there be no risks of tornadoes while I’m gone anyway. 😀

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

However, I just looked at the forecast for the place I’ll be going – Grant’s Pass Oregon:
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/or/grants-pass/KORGRANT115?cm_ven=localwx_10day
Although it’s more than a week away, next Wednesday it’s supposed to get up to 99 there! But this time of year that’ll be a dry heat over there.

Mike H
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Mike H

Crater Lake is beautiful this time of year

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

This is feeling more like normal! Daily forecasts of rain but nothing materializing.

Roger
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Roger

I know! I don’t want tons of flooding, but virtually all Mets have been forecasting rain every day in the Wichita area. However, it has been 7+ days since any rain has fallen in most locations. That is, of course, good news. It’s just strange that central to southeast KS has seen virtually no rain, but most areas N, S, E, and W have seen at least one round of heavy downpours. The energy from the trough out west is so stretched out. Plus, the tropical moisture plume will likely stay southeast of Kansas. Maybe leading to another 7-10 days… Read more »

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

We have had a total of 0.25″ in the last 10 days in Independence.

Joe
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Joe

Looks like the rain amounts forecast for this week are going to be a bust

matt
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matt

MD out

Kurt
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Kurt

Can you share a link if there is one? Why no link to the actual discussion?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

I replied to Matt with link to it. But it has been deleted ??

John
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John

Here goes Matt again finding anyway to make it sound like there is going to be severe weather here.

Matt
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Matt

It was just for MO and Central MO where a Watch would be if one is issued.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Yep. That’s the link I posted. MD for MO and Central MO. They said 60% chance a watch would be issued.
No idea why it was deleted. It was only a link.

Wesley
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Wesley

I assume you are referring to this: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0973.html Looks like mostly central MO to me.

Roger
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Roger

May rainfall amounts: Wichita NWS (COOP & CoCoRaHs) 2.7 miles ESE of Rose Hill: 30.08″ 4.2 miles ENE of Udall: 26.14″ 0.9 W of Eureka: 25.21″ 7.9 miles W of Winfield: 24.71″ 1 mile S of Augusta: 24.03″ 4.3 miles WSW of Mulvane: 22.34″ Yates Center: 21.93″ Wellington: 21.80″ 4 miles W of Belle Plaine: 21.79″ Potwin: 21.75″ Rainfall info (from Wichita NWS) Widespread 8 to 12 inches of rainfall fell in a 7 day period ending around May 27th. In addition, many areas across southern and eastern Kansas have picked-up between 15 and 25 inches for the month of… Read more »

Nate
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Nate

I thought we were suppose to get as line of storms last night? Forecast from the weekend doesn’t seem to be panning out, at least so far. Almost all of the neighborhood was out mowing on Sunday in anticipation of rains

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

In Lawrence we did…got a lot of rain late in the afternoon in a short period of time.

Kurt
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Kurt

I hope farmers that aren’t underwater can start getting crops in this week around St. Joseph and also should be able to get some hay cut. First time since mid April I’ll be watering the potted annuals and other pots in the yard. Really has been a great stretch of weather, looking forward to our next rain up here as long as it doesn’t aggravate the flooding.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Kurt, you need a totally dry ground to cut hay or it leaches moisture into it. Secondly, there is rain in forecast for foreseeable future and you can’t get your hay rained on. How is this good hay weather?
It needs full sun, and hot 90F and windy doesn’t hurt either.

Kurt
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Kurt

I know that they’re putting up large bales in areas of the county. We aren’t nearly as wet as you are down there

Kurt
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Kurt

Sorry, if you’re don’t believe me, but you can look to AHPS precip maps, we’re at only about 7.8 inches for May and just over 15 inches YTD. Alfalfa should have been done around Memorial day. We’ve had essentially 6 dry days now and the rain forecast keeps changing, not sure anyone knows where it will rain.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

You must be in that dry island again. Last I heard areas up north were impassable due to high water and I just assumed most of northern MO is waterlogged. We need about 5 days of dry weather before we can think about cutting hay in Vernon Co, and EVERYBODY is itching to get the hay cut as it’s a great hay crop and at close to peak nutritional value right now

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Less wet island, it really hasn’t been too wet in the immediate Saint Joseph area this spring. It’s actually about a normal spring. It probably feels wet to lots of people because of the last two dry years up here. Is very interesting, NWS hasn’t anything more than a 40% change in the next 8 days. Looks like this wet week isn’t going to be wet after all.

C.C
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C.C

You should cut hay at least three times a year. Not just the average we see now as once

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It depends, usually let our cows graze on the hay fields once we cut them. So we only get a single cut out most our places. Some falls the grass has regrown quite well and we could cut again in a few fields , but I like to leave it for conservation purposes if we arent hurting for hay

Jess Gjerstad
Guest
Jess Gjerstad

As a long-time lurker, this is my first post. Gary, has there been any research done on when the new weather pattern begins every year (specific dates)? As a long-time lurker, I’ve noticed that it differs from year to year, though the autumnal equinox is pretty consistent. I’ve got a theory-but it’s just that.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I noticed that Lake Perry keeps dumping out water. Lake level has steadily been on the decline this week

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The Corps makes stuff up as they go along. The May 9th Marysville Advocate quoted Whitworth (operations manager at Milford) as follows: “Until the gauge reading (at Waverly) drops below 90,000 cfs we can’t release anything”, but the flow at Waverly is presently 280,000 cfs and Milford is releasing 4,000 cfs. Milford Lake is 85% full.
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=eax&gage=wvym7

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I agree – so when I went to the ACOE Perry meeting last week they told us that the plan was to drop the lake to 920 and hold – clearly that isn’t the case.

KS Jones
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KS Jones
Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Take some pictures!

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

Fascinating, can’t wait to see how this plays out. Although it would be nice to get a reprieve from the rain. I can’t the agricultural and economic impacts this will have.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Hope you and Andy are having an amazing time! Sounds like the weather feels like Houston this morning in KC. Meanwhile I am up early in California due to my body saying I should be up in KC time.