Good Sunday bloggers,
We went from sunny to scattered severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in about one hour as a weak cold front moved through. Today we will go from sunny to sunny all day. This is the only day without a chance of rain through Friday.
The main severe issue on Saturday was hail. it was pretty consistent with diameters around 1″.
The pattern the next 5 days will feature a main upper low in the southwest USA with the main jet stream flowing across southern Canada. There will be a series of disturbances spitting out of the main upper low Monday-Wednesday ahead of the main upper low that tracks across the Plains and Midwest Thursday and Friday. Since the main jet stream is retreated this will reduce the severe threat with all of these rounds of rain and thunderstorms. There will still be chances of severe weather, but not as wild as last week. The main issue will be heavy rain and a worsening of the flooding issues.
There is a tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This may not become a hurricane, but it has the chance to add moisture to the situation setting up across the Plains and Midwest this week. That is the last thing the Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi rivers need.
SUNDAY: We will see great June weather with a surface high pressure in control. Highs will be in the 70s.
MONDAY MORNING: It will still be dry with increasing clouds as the first of a series of disturbances head our way. Lows will be mostly 55°-60°.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Here comes the rain again. Rain and thunderstorms will move in with some very heavy downpours and little to no severe weather. Highs will be in the 70s.
MONDAY NIGHT: The thunderstorm activity may go up a notch as the low level jet increases. The severe threat is low, but flash flooding may become a problem. Lows will be in the 60s. The rain and thunderstorms will likely linger into Tuesday morning. New scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and a few of these could be severe with hail, ahead of the main storm. This main storm has the chance to make Thursday and Friday washouts.
RAINFALL FORECAST: 2″ to 4″ of rain is likely the next 5-7 days with some locations seeing 4″ to 7″ of rain. The locations of the heaviest rain are not set. June averages 5.23″ of rain, about the same as May. We are on our way to another wet month.
On the wider view you can see how extensive the heavy rainfall will be this week. Again, the bulls eyes of 4″ to 7″ of rain are not set yet as with thunderstorms you never know where the heaviest will concentrate. So, the already flooded Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi rivers are not going to recede. The only slight bit of good news is that rainfall this week in the main Missouri river basin will be lighter, but still not none.
This flooding is going mostly from a major problem to one of the worse problems the Plains and Midwest has ever faced as we go through the summer.
At least we have no rain today, so let’s enjoy it.
Have a great week.