Days of Rain and Thunderstorms Around the Corner

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Good Sunday bloggers,

We went from sunny to scattered severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in about one hour as a weak cold front moved through. Today we will go from sunny to sunny all day. This is the only day without a chance of rain through Friday.

The main severe issue on Saturday was hail. it was pretty consistent with diameters around 1″.

The pattern the next 5 days will feature a main upper low in the southwest USA with the main jet stream flowing across southern Canada. There will be a series of disturbances spitting out of the main upper low Monday-Wednesday ahead of the main upper low that tracks across the Plains and Midwest Thursday and Friday. Since the main jet stream is retreated this will reduce the severe threat with all of these rounds of rain and thunderstorms. There will still be chances of severe weather, but not as wild as last week. The main issue will be heavy rain and a worsening of the flooding issues.

There is a tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This may not become a hurricane, but it has the chance to add moisture to the situation setting up across the Plains and Midwest this week. That is the last thing the Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi rivers need.

SUNDAY: We will see great June weather with a surface high pressure in control. Highs will be in the 70s.

MONDAY MORNING: It will still be dry with increasing clouds as the first of a series of disturbances head our way. Lows will be mostly 55°-60°.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Here comes the rain again. Rain and thunderstorms will move in with some very heavy downpours and little to no severe weather. Highs will be in the 70s.

MONDAY NIGHT: The thunderstorm activity may go up a notch as the low level jet increases. The severe threat is low, but flash flooding may become a problem. Lows will be in the 60s. The rain and thunderstorms will likely linger into Tuesday morning. New scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and a few of these could be severe with hail, ahead of the main storm. This main storm has the chance to make Thursday and Friday washouts.

RAINFALL FORECAST: 2″ to 4″ of rain is likely the next 5-7 days with some locations seeing 4″ to 7″ of rain. The locations of the heaviest rain are not set. June averages 5.23″ of rain, about the same as May. We are on our way to another wet month.

On the wider view you can see how extensive the heavy rainfall will be this week. Again, the bulls eyes of 4″ to 7″ of rain are not set yet as with thunderstorms you never know where the heaviest will concentrate. So, the already flooded Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi rivers are not going to recede. The only slight bit of good news is that rainfall this week in the main Missouri river basin will be lighter, but still not none.

This flooding is going mostly from a major problem to one of the worse problems the Plains and Midwest has ever faced as we go through the summer.

At least we have no rain today, so let’s enjoy it.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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USMCSergeantMr. PeteREAL HUMEDUDEFarmgirlDyl Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I notice that Lake Perry keeps releasing water – much more than is coming in.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

We need a dry spell to start the hay harvest. Any indications for at least 5 days in a row of dryness??

Dyl
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Dyl

Don’t jump the gun just yet, but the NAM 3km has quite the bow echo from about Lyon county in Kansas to roughly Livingston county in Missouri. I believe this is at 10:00 PM, (which could mean that the bow echo wouldn’t be as strong because the daytime heating and convection doesn’t exist) correct me if I’m wrong. Hopefully this changes in the 18Z and 0Z runs.
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REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Just another storm cluster, a dime a dozen this year

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

hmmmm..where’s today’s blog?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Since Gary’s in Europe I’m guessing things may be a little sparse this week?

Matt
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Matt

Penner will have it up when ready.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Lezak will be gone 2 weeks.
Jeff will blog when he has time or when there is something to blog about. For now let’s just enjoy today.

Jason (Lawrence)
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Jason (Lawrence)

In Penner’s head

USMCSergeant
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USMCSergeant

The new blog just posted.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

The title of this blog would make a good title of a song.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

44,000 cfs are being released into the Kaw from Tuttle Creek, Perry & Milford dams.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

About 10k of that is from Perry alone.

Kstater
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Kstater

It’s funny the corps has seemed to have decided to continue the release of water even with the flooding in Missouri and the reservoir levels declining in KS. I would guess since the releases have had very little affect they decided to try and buy themselves some breathing room and continue them. If they were going by the book they would have already stopped the releases at Tuttle and perry.

Three7s
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Three7s

The blizzard part of the pattern is back. Time for the next cycle.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It’s back early?? Should be June 8!

Jeffg
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Jeffg

I think Wednesday is the 5th cycle of the two 8 inch snows we got and then good rain on the 2 cycles after that. I have been using a spreadsheet to keep track of what each cycle has brought. I figured I was done after the snow season ended, but I decided to fill it out for a few more months to keep track of the summer.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Get the mowers rolling today

Kurt
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Kurt

St Joseph only reported it’s 17th wettest May and we’re 29th wettest year to date. We’ve avoided heavy rains this last month. What’s hurting is the runoff into rivers from up north. Otherwise we’ve had little hail, some wind. Still looks too wet for most farmers to get crops in.

I wouldn’t mind 1-2 inches of rain this week to keep things green. But I’m one of the fortunate ones not to have had too much rain.

j-ox
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j-ox

Rain rain go away…….