Tropical Season Forecast

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Good morning bloggers,

Today, we will share our tropical season forecast. We will begin with a look at what has happened this month.  In the late April-May-June forecast, issued by Weather2020 and broadcast on 41 Aciton News in mid-April, we predicted 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall or more possible and an active severe weather season that would increase in the second half of May.  Another big point is that Kansas City would have more rain in the second half of May than in the first half, and that it would be cooler than average.  Here are the stats:

May Statistics:

  • Total Rainfall:  12.82″ (wettest May on record)
  • First half of May:  3.59″
  • Second half of May:  9.23″
  • Temperatures:  1.7° below average

It rained 21 of the 31 days, as today will be dry!

The LRC describes the Order In Chaos, recently published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine.  Let’s see how this Order In Chaos worked just now, as the LRC was used to predict the severe weather potential for early this week with a four months “heads up” for what would eventually be the worst tornado near KC in over 15 years.

  • January:  Weather2020 predicts the last week of May to have the potential for a significant severe weather risk near KC
  • April 13th:  After a severe weather outbreak over the southeast, Weather2020 increases its risk for this week to have significant severe weather risks
  • One week before:  Gary Lezak let’s his staff know at KSHB that next Tuesday will likely be a significant day and let’s Lindsey Anderon know that she may need to work that evening. She had the day off, and we schedule Jeff Penner to work for her, Gerard to be out in Storm Tracker, and the team was prepared a week ahead of time
  • Two days before, Gary tweets out the increased risk that Tuesday would be a big day. (others were downplaying the potential). The LRC was used to override any model that showed lower risks
  • One day before:  The risk was emphasized by KSHB, while others downplayed it including most of the competitors, if not all competitors of KSHB
  • Tuesday:  Kansas City did indeed end up being a target as two major tornadoes strike with the Linwood, KS EF-4 lifting just as it was tracking over the heavily populated KC metro area, and then recycling and touching down again just northeast of KC

The LRC was just used from four months out to the day of as an advantage in weather forecasting. This is the ORDER IN CHAOS. This is how Weather2020 predicted Michael, Gordon, Florence, Alberto, Irma, Maria, and Harvey in the past two years.

Tropical Season Forecast

Hot Spot Forecast created December 1, 2018

The hot spots show the location where tropical activity is predicted to be the most active this hurricane season.  Other named storms and activity may be out of the hot spots, but conditions aren’t as favorable based on the LRC in these other locations on our initial analysis of this pattern.  The main hot spot is in a position where most tropical storms will likely curve out to sea east of the United States. There is another on near the northeast Gulf of Mexico that may be able to trigger one or two strong named storm this season.

Hurricane season begins officially tomorrow.  Weather2020 is predicting a below average hurricane season on the USA mainland, and there may still be one big one around September 11 -18 time frame near the northeast Gulf of Mexico again. We will be monitoring July closely in the cycle before this peak hurricane cycle in September for development, as any early system will trigger a better chance in a future cycle of a stronger storm. Most of the tropical activity will be forming in a hot spot east of Florida with some threats, but then the tracks will most likely curve offshore east of the southeast United States coast.

I am heading to Europe today to open up the Meteorological Technology World Expo next Wednesday.  We leave for London this afternoon.

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC.

Gary

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BeckyAndrew HKstaterRockdocMatt Recent comment authors
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Andrew H
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Andrew H

So I forget which bloggers live in or near Lawrence. Where did you take cover ? Basement ?
And how many of you bloggers witnessed the rain wrapped storm cell/tornado as it approached any particular vicinity.
Now that the blog is quieter it would be interesting to read your stories.
Hopefully that’s the only close call KC area gets for a long long time.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

It may get more active next week with the potential for more severe weather. Lots more rain predicted too. Should relax after that. Although two weeks out, look at the ridge that may form over the central US. Still needs to verify as we get closer.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

JL just said tomorrows cold front might come in 2 hrs later than previously thought. Which could allow for more heating, more instability. Therefore “could” potentially be stronger storms. Just be weather aware.
I watch furry on weeknights because they have a 9 pm newscast and its hit the hay time for me.

That sun tonight was a huge red/orange ball
Wildfires in Canada.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

I live in Lawrence but tuesday had the opportunity to chase with a professional storm chaser for the first time. It wasn’t something I will soon forget. We were right literally behind the tornado on hwy 59 and k-10 just south of Lawrence and witnessed the immediate aftermath. We stayed on K-10 to K-7 and met the storm again in the bonner area. We couldn’t see the tornado because it was rainwrapped but on K-10 i believe we were within 50-100 yards of it. Also passed reed timmer on k-10 which was an omnious thing because as those of you… Read more »

Becky
Guest
Becky

I didnt live there..I was in Gladstone…however I swear I heard it. I heard the one in 2003 and it’s not really a sound you ever forget. We got very lucky that it lifted before reaching us. I was more scared then than back in 03. I was for sure that it was gonna hit us. Not really something I ever want to hear again. My parents live across from the speedway but they are in Branson so they missed it all.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

NWS reports 8.8 inches of rain in Salina during May, really not that much relatively speaking. Russell had 8.4″.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Gary, is this what you were looking for in reference to your tweet about hurricane season? This is from the 15th of June.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2019053106&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Roger
Guest
Roger

The GFS shows 6-12 inches of rain in the next 2 weeks for central and south-central Kansas. The FV3-GFS only shows 0.50-2 inches.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

I measured 10.3″ in Independence for May. And let’s not forget the 3″ on April 30! We were pretty much neck and neck with KCI until the tornadic storm passed to our north and we got nothing, thankfully.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The water level on Tuttle Creek was 2.4 inches below the top of the flood gates this morning, and the outflow through the tubes was increased to 30,000 cfs. The site of the upcoming Country Stampede music festival (normally held below the dam) has been moved to Topeka.
The 40,000 cfs being released from Perry & Tuttle Creek should keep the Kaw River bank full.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Thanks!!!!

sierravista
Guest
sierravista

Enjoy your trip, Gary! Looking forward to hearing about your experiences.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Where are hook’em horns Mike and Stl Winona ? Haven’t heard from them in awhile.

Hope chance of severe tomorrow stays just a small chance. Even big wind gusts or hail are not welcome ! Had enough

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

The humidity in the late summer is going to be rough. The moisture in the ground is really going to fuel some nasty heat come July and August. Wonder how that translates into the fall and winter…

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I wouldn’t mind well timed rains to continue in June, although it needs to dry out enough in the areas not flooded for crops to get planted. I had pretty much well timed rains in May and wasn’t anywhere near areas around me. Most of Buchanan county got between 6 and 9 inches in May, fascinating to see so many reports of 11-14 inches of rain in other areas. It’s sad the ongoing flooding concerns, but 1-2 inches a week would be perfect and help keep the yards green and things looking lush. I did notice the discrepancy in the… Read more »

Bill
Guest
Bill

Gary, I think this is the year that I’m finally a believer. Not to mention other stations have tweeted things such as “this looks oddly familiar to an earlier system.” Nice work! I also made sure all of my commuter friends in Lawrence came home early that day. You likely saved my best friend’s life as she was expected to leave Lawrence at 6 that day.

I take it we’re done with tornadoes? Models show a ridge building and by the time it breaks it down it is late June.

Thanks for everything.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

SF Gate has an article today about a storm chaser van that was flipped on its side in Lawrence from the tornado.

Terry
Guest
Terry

When do we Expect our next big severe outbreak?

Brittany
Guest

We probably won’t have a “big” severe weather outbreak again this season, as summer is around the corner and the jet stream goes back up north.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Why, so everyone can talk about how awful the destruction was, their personal close calls and high five about storm coverage?

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

lol…what the hell is your problem?

Adam
Guest
Adam

AMEN!

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Nate, maybe Terry’s asking when the next severe outbreak is expected so they can prepare for it, or just so they can simply be aware – this is a weather blog after all. No need to jump down their throat for no reason at all.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Unlikely

Clint
Guest
Clint

I think the June 6th-8th has potential.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Near by has an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. Saturday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Increasing clouds, with a high near 87. West southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Some of the… Read more »

steve p
Guest
steve p

your storm coverage was really good Gary and that clip on yesterdays confirmed it. lets all be glad the 2019 tornado hit in mostly rural areas and not more populated ones like the 2003 or so one did when it destroyed 100’s of homes in Gladstone etc. thanks for hurricane update but couple months ago you said last of July-early Aug there was going to be severe rains and flooding in eastern MO and Mississippi would be subject to more flooding. is that still true? lastly, I’m SE of Zona and we got 11.93″ for the month with my good… Read more »

Matt...A Different One
Guest
Matt...A Different One

Hey Gary,

Thanks again for all your hard work during the storms this last week!

What are you thoughts on the weather for tomorrow afternoon/evening?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Is my impression that we’ll be hard-pressed to get a 100-degree day this summer correct?

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Here are my May totals up here in Maryville, MO. I had 18 days where it rained. The lowest amount was a trace on May 14th. The largest amount was on May 29th with a total of 3.72″. I had 13.69″ for the whole month of May! Wozers! I hope June is a little drier and less rain. Mowing has been challenging to say the least! Have a great day Bloggers!
Michael

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

First!