Good morning bloggers,
Today, we will share our tropical season forecast. We will begin with a look at what has happened this month. In the late April-May-June forecast, issued by Weather2020 and broadcast on 41 Aciton News in mid-April, we predicted 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall or more possible and an active severe weather season that would increase in the second half of May. Another big point is that Kansas City would have more rain in the second half of May than in the first half, and that it would be cooler than average. Here are the stats:
- Total Rainfall: 12.82″ (wettest May on record)
- First half of May: 3.59″
- Second half of May: 9.23″
- Temperatures: 1.7° below average
It rained 21 of the 31 days, as today will be dry!
The LRC describes the Order In Chaos, recently published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine. Let’s see how this Order In Chaos worked just now, as the LRC was used to predict the severe weather potential for early this week with a four months “heads up” for what would eventually be the worst tornado near KC in over 15 years.
- January: Weather2020 predicts the last week of May to have the potential for a significant severe weather risk near KC
- April 13th: After a severe weather outbreak over the southeast, Weather2020 increases its risk for this week to have significant severe weather risks
- One week before: Gary Lezak let’s his staff know at KSHB that next Tuesday will likely be a significant day and let’s Lindsey Anderon know that she may need to work that evening. She had the day off, and we schedule Jeff Penner to work for her, Gerard to be out in Storm Tracker, and the team was prepared a week ahead of time
- Two days before, Gary tweets out the increased risk that Tuesday would be a big day. (others were downplaying the potential). The LRC was used to override any model that showed lower risks
- One day before: The risk was emphasized by KSHB, while others downplayed it including most of the competitors, if not all competitors of KSHB
- Tuesday: Kansas City did indeed end up being a target as two major tornadoes strike with the Linwood, KS EF-4 lifting just as it was tracking over the heavily populated KC metro area, and then recycling and touching down again just northeast of KC
The LRC was just used from four months out to the day of as an advantage in weather forecasting. This is the ORDER IN CHAOS. This is how Weather2020 predicted Michael, Gordon, Florence, Alberto, Irma, Maria, and Harvey in the past two years.
Tropical Season Forecast
Hot Spot Forecast created December 1, 2018
The hot spots show the location where tropical activity is predicted to be the most active this hurricane season. Other named storms and activity may be out of the hot spots, but conditions aren’t as favorable based on the LRC in these other locations on our initial analysis of this pattern. The main hot spot is in a position where most tropical storms will likely curve out to sea east of the United States. There is another on near the northeast Gulf of Mexico that may be able to trigger one or two strong named storm this season.
Hurricane season begins officially tomorrow. Weather2020 is predicting a below average hurricane season on the USA mainland, and there may still be one big one around September 11 -18 time frame near the northeast Gulf of Mexico again. We will be monitoring July closely in the cycle before this peak hurricane cycle in September for development, as any early system will trigger a better chance in a future cycle of a stronger storm. Most of the tropical activity will be forming in a hot spot east of Florida with some threats, but then the tracks will most likely curve offshore east of the southeast United States coast.
I am heading to Europe today to open up the Meteorological Technology World Expo next Wednesday. We leave for London this afternoon.
Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC.