This is an update from Jeff Penner. The tornado risk has been increased considerably across eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The pink is a 15% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of your location. That may sound low, but the average chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of your location is about 1%. So, this is 15 times greater of a chance and needs to be taken seriously. The red is 10%.
See the previous entry below for more details.
Good morning bloggers,
There is a strong risk of severe thunderstorms with all types of severe weather possible today. The strongest risk is in the red hatched area over northern Missouri. This is the tornado risk area today:
In the red area, there is a 10% chance of an EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any location. Kansas City is in the risk as well, just not as high of a threat.
The risk was just upgraded to a Moderate Risk, which is a level 4 out of 5 risk:
Kansas City has now been placed under the moderate risk: There is an outflow boundary currently moving southeast and visible on Topeka Radar. This boundary will stall, and where it stalls and just north of the boundary is where the strongest risk is likely. There may be a couple of strong tornadoes in this risk area. There is an extremely moist and unstable air mass in place and the sun is already out, so the fuel for these thunderstorms will be quite juicy and ready to support any thunderstorm that develops. All types of severe weather are possible in this risk area today.
Two of our higher resolution models have just come in with solutions similar to this one below. This is one of the HRRR models valid at 7 PM this evening, and it shows a supercell thunderstorm near the northwestern side of the KC metro area. It also shows that the areas south of KC get missed, and that would be a good thing with the conditions that exist today. These thunderstorms will have the potential of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
We will be monitoring this closely. Join my Facebook fan page, GaryLezak, and follow me on Twitter, glezak, as these thunderstorms develop. There is a cap that must be broken south of the surface low. The cap will more easily break northeast of the surface low and near and north of the warm front, and thus the stronger risk in these areas.
The timing: Thunderstorms should develop by mid to late afternoon and then shift north and east, track north and east with these risks later this evening and moving towards Illinois before midnight. This is our most significant risk of the season near KC, so let’s pay close attention! I have to get into a meeting, and then I will check in on the blog later.
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