Kansas City Is In Today’s Risk: Level 4 out of 5 Severe Weather Risk

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This is an update from Jeff Penner. The tornado risk has been increased considerably across eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The pink is a 15% chance of seeing a tornado within 25  miles of your location. That may sound low, but the average chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of your location is about 1%. So, this is 15 times greater of a chance and needs to be taken seriously. The red is 10%.

See the previous entry below for more details.

Good morning bloggers,

There is a strong risk of severe thunderstorms with all types of severe weather possible today.  The strongest risk is in the red hatched area over northern Missouri.  This is the tornado risk area today:

In the red area, there is a 10% chance of an EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any location.   Kansas City is in the risk as well, just not as high of a threat.

The risk was just upgraded to a Moderate Risk, which is a level 4 out of 5 risk:

Kansas City has now been placed under the moderate risk:  There is an outflow boundary currently moving southeast and visible on Topeka Radar. This boundary will stall, and where it stalls and just north of the boundary is where the strongest risk is likely.  There may be a couple of strong tornadoes in this risk area.  There is an extremely moist and unstable air mass in place and the sun is already out, so the fuel for these thunderstorms will be quite juicy and ready to support any thunderstorm that develops.  All types of severe weather are possible in this risk area today.

Two of our higher resolution models have just come in with solutions similar to this one below.   This is one of the HRRR models valid at 7 PM this evening, and it shows a supercell thunderstorm near the northwestern side of the KC metro area.  It also shows that the areas south of KC get missed, and that would be a good thing with the conditions that exist today.  These thunderstorms will have the potential of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

We will be monitoring this closely.  Join my Facebook fan page, GaryLezak, and follow me on Twitter, glezak, as these thunderstorms develop.  There is a cap that must be broken south of the surface low.  The cap will more easily break northeast of the surface low and near and north of the warm front, and thus the stronger risk in these areas.

The timing:  Thunderstorms should develop by mid to late afternoon and then shift north and east, track north and east with these risks later this evening and moving towards Illinois before midnight.  This is our most significant risk of the season near KC, so let’s pay close attention!  I have to get into a meeting, and then I will check in on the blog later.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Highway of HeroesLeavenworthMatt...A Different OneJohnKole Christian Recent comment authors
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Leavenworth
Guest
Leavenworth

Sun is trying pretty hard to come out in Leavenworth. It’s 76 degrees here.

Kole Christian
Guest
Kole Christian

Misty sprinkles have stopped just south of Platte City.

Ross (N. Overland Park)
Guest
Ross (N. Overland Park)

New blog posted

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

doesn’t say much

Matt...A Different One
Guest
Matt...A Different One

It says way more then you have ever contributed to any post

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Look at the energy just shoot up northeast over New Mexico and Western Kansas.. this is what should ignite our storms.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

HRRR is hinting at storms getting their act together between 3-4 west of Topeka and Emporia. If those storms do fire KC would be looking at a cluster of super cells heading in around 6-8 tonight…. hold on tight folks.. we will know a lot more by 4 o’clock.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

ok, thanks

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Should I break out the POOF dance?

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Say it with me… “POOF POOF POOF”

Jason
Guest
Jason

P P P POOF please

mizzoufan_87
Guest

Maybe if we all do the “poof” dance together, nothing will materialize. 😂

Highway of Heroes
Guest
Highway of Heroes

All joking aside – Poof, please! POOF POOF POOF!!!

craig
Guest
craig

Here’s the watch. Pretty stout probabilities, too.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (70%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (80%)

comment image

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Don’t forget!

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

If the EF 2+ probabilities would be high, it would be a pds tornado watch.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

Well thank god they’re not.

Carlos
Guest
Carlos

The HRRR hints at a PDS Tornado with SigTor of 10 – SW of the Metro (Coffey County): https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2019052818&fh=4&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc= at around 6pm. The atmosphere is ripe for a Super Cell or two to form and take advantage.

TDubbs
Guest
TDubbs

My goodness… 70% chance of TWO tornadoes…. that is insane.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Man, the SPC has been so erratic this year on issuing PDS Watches v. Tornado watches. Just a plain, ho-hum watch last night turned into an explosive nightmare for people in Ohio, but the high risk last week with the PDS produced maybe one or two. I really don’t think the SPC has a grasp on the models and/or systems this year.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Sorry when I posted about the watch the others were not showing up

Becca
Guest
Becca

Many of the seasoned storm chasers are thinking today is going to be an overachiever… as Gary believed several days ago. Something about the 17z runs showing pretty decent low level shear.

Ian Alexander Greene
Guest
Ian Alexander Greene

Where exactly?

Becca
Guest
Becca

Just south of the warm front.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Watch just issued

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Tornader watch for the metro until 10 pm!

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Tornado watch just issued for metro area.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
What is going on with that graph?
Mum is the word on the 3-day forecast.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Don’t know but saw on Tuttle’s website today that there was some kind of small known leak in that particular dam.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Basically a waiting game now folks. Get home when you can and batten down the hatches. Could get nasty out there, but lets hope not. TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Jack, hopefully for your partner’s sake you have your Depends on. Every one of your posts you are peeing your pants.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

That’s called being excited about the weather… I am a college student pursuing a master’s in meteorology, so no wife yet and all of this is just exciting to me as it is to most people in this blog..

Becky
Guest
Becky

Can someone please post a summary of what was said on his FB live? I am at work and cannot watch it. Thank you.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Basically we are in a waiting game right now. Time frame is 4-6. Storms will form in central kansas and track east and possibly form on the warm front. No watch out yet, but he expects one in the next hour.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

so by three

Becky
Guest
Becky

Thank you so much. I really appreciate it! 😁

Bob
Guest
Bob

Yeah! Gary just pooped on TWC and Torcon.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Poor Matt.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

what happened

John
Guest
John

I pooped on it last night. It is just a publicity hype index that the weather channel puts out. Did not even have a torcon number for Dayton, OH last night. It is just dumb and a scare tactic I guess.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

TORCON is such a joke and causes nothing but panic.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park
John
Guest
John

Raining I would say a steady light rain up north by the airport where I am working right now. Seems to be making it more humid but raining hard enough to make the parking lot wet and had to use the wipers.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Can someone post the link when Gary goes live?

Jeffg
Guest

That would be most appreciated. I always have trouble finding his Facebook live videos. Thanks to whoever posts the link when he goes live!!

John
Guest
John
John
Guest
John

LOL at the thumbs down vote

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GLD-N0Q-1-48

Look how the storms are ripcording along the dryline near CO/NE border. That’s probably the concern we have here.

Craig
Guest
Craig

It’s cloudy, 75 and actually DRIZZLING in Lenexa.
Remarkable.
Kansas City has to be the worst place in the Midwest to observe severe weather….which, in the end, is good, I guess.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

WOW. Insane CAPE just west of Wichita.. 5000!! That is the type of energy that is out there today.

LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

they are not even saying anything except normal thunder so like i said i really dont think so

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.08&lon=-94.57

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

thats a big area if it was circled right on us then maybe

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Seems pretty centered on KC to me 🙂

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

What in the world are you talking about lol

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Try clicking on the discussion portion Of the forecast. Very first sentence ….” potential for widespread severe thunderstorms with all modes possible”
You really have to read the discussion in order to know what they are expecting although they should mention severe storms possible in the general forecast as well I see your point.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Does anyone have any go to websites for Satellite images? Something spot on for that nations mid section? Thanks.

Craig
Guest
Craig
LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

they are not even saying anything exept normal thunder so like i said i really dont think so

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.08&lon=-94.57

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Wow, that supercell is right on top of me in Leavenworth. I’m more concerned about hail than a tornado. Will it be lime sized hail, peach, or grape sized hail.

Brittany
Guest

Outside at the park now and it really doesn’t even feel that warm…crazy.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Some light rain and Sprinkles coming down in KCK now.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Update on here/synopsis of what Gary says on Facebook live would be appreciated for those of us at work or who don’t have Facebook! Thanks in advance

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Nothing’s happened yet and we’re already over 100 comments!

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

It’s like the anticipation of the first snow of the season.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Except I don’t have to anticipate my house being torn apart with snow.

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

Thinking back to May 4, 2003, is today’s risk similar to, less than or greater than the risk back then? Does anyone know?

Carlos
Guest
Carlos

Here is the link to the SPC outlook for that day. We were under a High Risk.:
comment image

Here is an image of the tornados that were captured that day:
comment image

matt
Guest
matt

Oh that year.

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

Thank you, Carlos. Apparently, we aren’t quite as high today as we were then.

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

Heads up…Gary will be live on FB at approx 1:15-1:30

Todd
Guest
Todd

Will this first round of storms out west impact development later? or is that the main event?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

That is definitely not the main event. Those will move north and west of the city… eyes go areas around Emporia and Topeka for storm development in the next 1-2 hours.

Carlos
Guest
Carlos

Those storms are headed NE and well north of the metro… main event will be late afternoon / evening. Tornado Watch will probably be issued for the Metro around 1-2pm and last through the evening / night

South of Olathe
Guest
South of Olathe

I just want to say that I really enjoy this blog. It’s the only place I can go to get weather information that is deep, yet explained. You won’t find this information, this detailed, on any tv weather segment. It’s days like today that I’m thankful there are weather enthusiasts that enjoy watching models and explaining them.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Looks like the outflow boundary has officially stalled just south of Chillicothe over to Cameron and through southern Buchanan county.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

What exactly does this mean?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Along that boundary is where I’d say the worst of the weather is going to be.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019052816&fh=2

This is the latest HRRR. If this actually is what happens, KC could be dealing with some good super cells. Another note, if you compare it to the past 5-6 runs by pressing the down and up arrows, you can really see how it has trended in the direction of storms forming further south that impact the entire metro. We should be looking between Topeka and Wichita for the development of these storms… but the storms out there now need to move out, and luckily they are moving very quickly. 2-4 p.m is when they should begin to develop!

Jack

Carlos
Guest
Carlos

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2019052816&fh=8&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Significant Tornado Parameter (SigTor) of 6.7 based on latest HRRR for this evening 6-9 pm timeframe on the south side of the metro. Seems high.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Here we go . . . granted the SPC thinks the storms that latch onto the boundary will be the ones that really will pose the dangerous threats.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0853.html

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Yikes! Looks like the threat is centered directly over the metro

Lauren
Guest
Lauren

What is the timing of this?

LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

its cloudy so i really dont think anything will happen nearby maybe some rain

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Read the comments below which will tell you why you are wrong… not every single spot will be hit by a severe storm but the threat is definitely there today… more than it has been here in kc in a few years.

Kole Christian
Guest
Kole Christian

I agree Jack. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a good setup like this.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

name 1 reason this is good. this is horrible. lives are at stake

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

People like severe weather and it is absolutely fascinating to watch.
Nobody on here is hoping for death or destruction. Except to knock out your internet for the rest of your life.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

😆

LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

i just look at this and they arent even saying anything about severe weather or tornadoes so i really dont think so

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.08&lon=-94.57

matt
Guest
matt

MD out.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

There is an MD east of KC.. not for Kansas City.

matt
Guest
matt

STW out know for that area.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

That truly did not make sense. Matt, I know people give you a lot of crap, but today is a day people want to converse in this blog about weather in a way that makes sense and in a way that is rational. If you want to make a comment, please do, but, please, for everyone’s sake, do not talk about things that do not make sense or things that aren’t relevant. Thank you.

Mike
Guest
Mike

There is one now for KC

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR is interesting because it shows numerous little thunderstorms popping up around noon to 1 PM in the KC metro area. Not sure if the HRRR thinks these early afternoon storms are going to be tornadic or not – looks to me like it’s maybe artifacts of the HRRR trying to show the cap? NAM and NAM 3KM holds everything off until 23z or 00z – but HRRR has these small cells popping up by 19z. RAP shows the band of storms over central KS getting here but falling apart – maybe the HRRR thinks this band is going to… Read more »

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Useful analysis man! You always seem to know what you’re talking about

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Bases on the latest update from the NWS, it looks like the black hatched area for tornados shifted south ever so slightly. Could it be due to the front coming further south than originally thought?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Yes, that is what I think.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

SPC realigned the sig severe tornado risk & now centered right over the metro

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

They really cut down the northern side of the moderate risk and that is definitely due to the boundary being a bit further south. They did not really say why they lessened the probabilities, and I am not sure what could be the reason. Regardless, KC is one of the main targets, and cape values are already between 1500-2500, so I do not believe cloud cover should be a big issue with this.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Does sig mean significant ?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

I think he is referring the the black hatched area.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Yes. Significant severe risk is what the black hatched outline means.

matt
Guest
matt

Thanks and no good again.

John
Guest
John

Can you post the image I could not see that on the SPC site for whatever reason.

Bill
Guest
Bill

The 15% tornado probs. were pulled, would not be surprised if they get thrown back on at the 3p mark. Still looking to be a dangerous situation with everything concentrated further south than originally believed.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

SPC lowered the risk of tornadoes, weigh albeit only slightly.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

still under the sig. severe

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Look at the current radar. Large outflow boundary moving toward the metro. Currently from roughly Chillicothe west to just north of Topeka.

Where this stalls will indicate generation line for storms later today.