Good morning bloggers,
This pattern is just non stop, so what is going on? The LRC is what is going on! The weather blog often gets a huge drop off in readership after winter ends, and that didn’t happen this year as we went from 41 days with snow to storm after storm after storm system this spring. Kansas City is already having the 8th wettest month it has ever had, since records began, and the 11.25″ this month makes this May the second wettest May on record. And now, a major severe weather outbreak is possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC, and this storm is right on schedule. We are in the part of the pattern that produced the first inch of snow in Kansas City in November, and that was followed up by the 9″ snowstorm in St. Louis. And, now in this fifth LRC cycle it is no longer cold enough to snow, although this storm is producing snow at low elevations over the southwestern mountains. The snow levels did get down to around 5,000 feet which is almost unheard of in late May. This same pattern then cycled through again around New Year’s eve into the first few days of 2019. We are now going to get the late May version of this years LRC, and it is a bit concerning. The LRC is the cause of the wet and wild weather pattern. In today’s blog we will discuss the rising rivers and the severe weather risks.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Memorial Day: A few periods of clouds will move through this morning with maybe a brief shower or thunderstorm, and then it will be dry for your pool and barbecue activities. Expect it to become partly cloudy with sun shining through with south to southwest winds blowing at around 10 to 20 mph and gusty. High: 83°
- Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms later tonight
- Tuesday: Periods of clouds with a chance of thunderstorms. Then, thunderstorms likely Tuesday evening with a few possibly severe. High: Near 80°
River Flooding In Missouri:
This picture, below, is an aerial shot taken by Stacey Singleton east of Carrollton between Dewitt and Brunswick. This is of the Grand River which flows into the Missouri River, and it is near 93 levels and flooded the bottoms in the upper right corner of the pic.
The big question is will the rainfall amounts increase in June or decrease in June. Summer is just three weeks away now, and the jet stream will begin weakening and retreating north. The same pattern continues to cycle, however, and there is concern that even as summer settles in, the rains may become even heavier, and a bit farther north or upstream.
Here is yet another incredible exhibit of the LRC:
The top left map shows today’s 500 mb flow, and then this part of the pattern within each cycle. The 11-11-18 map shows the pattern as Kansas City was about to have its first inch of snow, then 2019 began with this part of the pattern in the upper right slide which looks almost identical to today, and, well, it is “the same, but different” as Gary England said a decade ago when he saw a glimpse of the LRC.
So, what does this mean? It means that we know that the same pattern that set up in October continues today. There is something interesting happening to monitor in the next two weeks as we move into the first half of June. The jet stream will continue to weaken and shift north. Summer is just three weeks away, and when this happens, I see enough flow aloft, and in this years cycling pattern, that the chance of the wet weather continuing deep into June and into summer to be rather high. This is concerning for the high water that already exists.
The Severe Weather Setups:
These are the risks the next two days. Today, the risk extends from Nebraska east to the western Ohio Valley, and then tomorrow the risk expands and is more significant, and includes Kansas City. There are still a few questions yet to be answered for Tuesday’s set up. There is a wave timed for the evening that has my attention at the moment. The best chance of severe may arrive after sunset, and at this moment the confidence is still a bit shaky on where the tornado threat will be located. In the high risk we had recently, the energy was delayed until after sunset, and this affected the intensity of the severe weather outbreak to being a bit lower than it could have been if that energy was timed a bit faster. The same thing may exist on Tuesday evening as there is a second big wave forecast to drop south towards Mexico. This was called the St. Louis snowstorm part of the pattern in the first LRC cycle as it produced a rare big snow before we even got to November 15th when 9″ of snow fell. This time, we know the same pattern can’t produce snow, but there is a similar system predicted to drop south into Mexico before coming out on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early in the day, but should weaken before midday allowing for significant heating. Thunderstorms should then develop and intensify during the mid afternoon with dewpoint temperatures approaching 75° over eastern Kansas into western Missouri. The thunderstorms will initially be discrete-isolotated allowing for the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, and this risk is more likely west of Kansas City initially. Remember now, the main energy is still approaching at this time, so this may initially limit the tornado risk. The tornado risk will then increase as the stronger energy rotates out of the base of the upper low and tracks overhead around or just after sunset Tuesday evening.
Let’s see how the models come in today. I will be on 41 Action News tonight and we will discuss in our comments section in this blog.
Happy Memorial Day everyone! I will go in-depth on 41 Action News tonight and discuss the trend in how this is all setting up. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions.