A Stronger Risk Of Severe Weather Tuesday

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

This pattern is just non stop, so what is going on?  The LRC is what is going on!  The weather blog often gets a huge drop off in readership after winter ends, and that didn’t happen this year as we went from 41 days with snow to storm after storm after storm system this spring.  Kansas City is already having the 8th wettest month it has ever had, since records began, and the 11.25″ this month makes this May the second wettest May on record. And now, a major severe weather outbreak is possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening.    This weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC, and this storm is right on schedule.  We are in the part of the pattern that produced the first inch of snow in Kansas City in November, and that was followed up by the 9″ snowstorm in St. Louis.  And, now in this fifth LRC cycle it is no longer cold enough to snow, although this storm is producing snow at low elevations over the southwestern mountains. The snow levels did get down to around 5,000 feet which is almost unheard of in late May.  This same pattern then cycled through again around New Year’s eve into the first few days of 2019.   We are now going to get the late May version of this years LRC, and it is a bit concerning.  The LRC is the cause of the wet and wild weather pattern.  In today’s blog we will discuss the rising rivers and the severe weather risks.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Memorial Day:  A few periods of clouds will move through this morning with maybe a brief shower or thunderstorm, and then it will be dry for your pool and barbecue activities.  Expect it to become partly cloudy with sun shining through with south to southwest winds blowing at around 10 to 20 mph and gusty.  High: 83°
  • Tonight:  Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms later tonight
  • Tuesday:  Periods of clouds with a chance of thunderstorms. Then, thunderstorms likely Tuesday evening with a few possibly severe.  High:  Near 80°

River Flooding In Missouri:

This picture, below, is an aerial shot taken by Stacey Singleton east of Carrollton between Dewitt and Brunswick. This is of the Grand River which flows into the Missouri River, and it is near 93 levels and flooded the bottoms in the upper right corner of the pic.

The big question is will the rainfall amounts increase in June or decrease in June. Summer is just three weeks away now, and the jet stream will begin weakening and retreating north. The same pattern continues to cycle, however, and there is concern that even as summer settles in, the rains may become even heavier, and a bit farther north or upstream.

Here is yet another incredible exhibit of the LRC:

The top left map shows today’s 500 mb flow, and then this part of the pattern within each cycle. The 11-11-18 map shows the pattern as Kansas City was about to have its first inch of snow, then 2019 began with this part of the pattern in the upper right slide which looks almost identical to today, and, well, it is “the same, but different” as Gary England said a decade ago when he saw a glimpse of the LRC.

So, what does this mean?  It means that we know that the same pattern that set up in October continues today.  There is something interesting happening to monitor in the next two weeks as we move into the first half of June. The jet stream will continue to weaken and shift north. Summer is just three weeks away, and when this happens, I see enough flow aloft, and in this years cycling pattern, that the chance of the wet weather continuing deep into June and into summer to be rather high.  This is concerning for the high water that already exists.

The Severe Weather Setups:

These are the risks the next two days. Today, the risk extends from Nebraska east to the western Ohio Valley, and then tomorrow the risk expands and is more significant, and includes Kansas City. There are still a few questions yet to be answered for Tuesday’s set up.  There is a wave timed for the evening that has my attention at the moment.  The best chance of severe may arrive after sunset, and at this moment the confidence is still a bit shaky on where the tornado threat will be located.  In the high risk we had recently, the energy was delayed until after sunset, and this affected the intensity of the severe weather outbreak to being a bit lower than it could have been if that energy was timed a bit faster.  The same thing may exist on Tuesday evening as there is a second big wave forecast to drop south towards Mexico.  This was called the St. Louis snowstorm part of the pattern in the first LRC cycle as it produced a rare big snow before we even got to November 15th when 9″ of snow fell. This time, we know the same pattern can’t produce snow, but there is a similar system predicted to drop south into Mexico before coming out on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early in the day, but should weaken before midday allowing for significant heating.  Thunderstorms should then develop and intensify during the mid afternoon with dewpoint temperatures approaching 75° over eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  The thunderstorms will initially be discrete-isolotated allowing for the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, and this risk is more likely west of Kansas City initially.  Remember now, the main energy is still approaching at this time, so this may initially limit the tornado risk.  The tornado risk will then increase as the stronger energy rotates out of the base of the upper low and tracks overhead around or just after sunset Tuesday evening.

Let’s see how the models come in today. I will be on 41 Action News tonight and we will discuss in our comments section in this blog.

Happy Memorial Day everyone!  I will go in-depth on 41 Action News tonight and discuss the trend in how this is all setting up.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

78
Leave a Reply

avatar
24 Comment threads
54 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
33 Comment authors
SkyspyKU_fanAndrew HJasonf00dl3 Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Where is today’s blog?
KC has been upgraded to moderate risk for severe

KU_fan
Guest
KU_fan

The meteorologists are probably busy analyzing data to help keep the city safe today. I’m sure they’ll get to a blog if they have time today. Just a friendly reminder that the blog is not something we are entitled to. 🙂

Jason
Guest
Jason

This afternoon and evening is not looking good. Area just upgraded.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

And in left field, GFS has ligh rain around Noon stablizing us the rest of the day….

And Euro actually has heavy tunderstorms at 10 AM over Kansas City.
comment image

Bill
Guest
Bill

Absolute tragedy in Dayton right now. A large wedge tornado tore through the middle of town. Praying for everyone.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yup…its sounds bad

mizzoufan_87
Guest

The debris ball on that thing made me cringe so hard. Poor Dayton. I hope everyone is okay. Night tornadoes are without a doubt the absolute worst.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

0z NAM is showing some bigger individual cells from just south of KC up to the Iowa border tomorrow.

Matt
Guest
Matt

So what Gary has shown might happen.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

The 0z HRRR hinted at some big storms tomorrow around area especially a little north and west… it has extreme instability as well. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see what unfolds, if things set up right, especially if we get good sunshine and no storms early on, all the ingredients will be there for severe weather. I am predicting that SPC will have place kc on the southeast edge of a moderate risk.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

There was one or two cells that move north of the city and then eventually dissipate as they moved northeast, per the HRRR.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Right know expanded the Enhanced Risk and theirs a Watch in Northwest MO that might effect a Moderate Risk from been issued.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Terry and Matt are the same person.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I suspected, but I wasn’t sure. Explains a lot.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I suspected this, but does this mean it’s confirmed?

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

No. They have different syntax and spelling issues.

D J
Guest
D J

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/mbrfc/flood51.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjY2Nq227ziAhVCWq0KHYiCB98QFjAcegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw0g4Y-CYqewAWiSEE7-bFod Interesting NWS Publication from around 2000 detailing causes of 1993 and 1951 floods. More interesting is the section on what conditions are necessary for a similar event: ”First, several weeks or months of much above normal precipitation would be necessary to saturate the soil, increase groundwater levels, produce high streamflows throughout the basin, raise Corps of Engineers’ reservoirs well into flood control pools and elevate Bureau of Reclamation reservoirs to high levels. At the same time, major storms in Nebraska and Iowa could raise the Missouri River flow significantly at Kansas City, perhaps even to flood stage or above.… Read more »

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

It is evident in the latest NWS forecast discussion that they do not think tomorrow will be a big deal. They said that it appears that tomorrow’s severe weather is likely than it has appeared the last few days. Because of all of the different things that must occur for the severe weather, they believe the risk is not as high.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

I can see what they mean…I don’t know if it’s just my connection or what, but now the 3km NAM and HRRR don’t show much of anything happening tomorrow?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

HRRR is much better day of the event…. nam 3km has not been good the last few weeks with these set ups.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

Latest HRRR seems to have most of the major activity up north.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

I think I am sorta picking up on the “wave” of energy that could play a big part in tomorrow’s severe weather.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019052712&fh=36

Take a look at the red going north to south in south western Kansas. This would ignite storms in central-eastern Kansas around peak heating or just a bit after… I think would want this wave to to be moving into central Kansas just a bit earlier around 4-5 for us to some good severe weather. I may be wrong about this info about this wave of energy but would love to hear people’s thoughts.

Jack

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Man, I do not understand why people dis liked this comment… isn’t this supposed to be the place to put our thoughts on the weather?

John
Guest
John

I think it because a lot of people do not want severe storms, but I do not think there is a way to avoid them tomorrow afternoon and evening at least according to Gary’s thinking right now. There is a difference of opinion between the NWS local office and Gary right now, and from the track record of the two I think I will side with Gary.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

I don’t think the NWS believes there WON’T be severe weather, I think they’re just leaning towards it being nothing too substantial, which it may play out that way. However, I do think Gary might be correct in predicting a few supercells that develop out west. He did say that a lot of the region probably wouldn’t experience severe weather, but that there may be a couple big thunderstorms that will need to be watched.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Well, those dislikes turned into likes after I posted that comment lol. But, John, I agree. I am sure people dislike the potential for severe weather. The track record would for sure track with Gary. I think we can expect thunderstorms to form on the warm front as it lifts north and then our eyes will shift to central Kansas to see if super cells for out there… hoping they do for the sake of exciting weather!

Matt
Guest
Matt

As I would like Tornado’s but just EF0 ones but fun to watch them on TV but if damage to buildings they usly rebuild.

John
Guest
John

So now you are wanting tornadoes and damage to people’s property because they will rebuild? I do not get your comments, but I guess I never really have to begin with.

Matt
Guest
Matt

No I don’t want one but places do rebuild if get damage.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Matt,

You would feel much different if you were to experience a tornado of any strength at your place of residence

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I wouldn’t even waste my time on him. He sounds like a kid who just parrots whatever he hears. The fact that he takes tornadoes damaging buildings as alright because they’re “fun to watch on tv” speaks volumes to his naivety.

Still waiting for that ignore feature

Matt
Guest
Matt

I don’t like any bad Weather.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Wichita now has moved into their 2nd largest May rainfall on record and in 5th place overall in any month.

1) June 1923: 14.43″
2) July 1950: 13.37″
3) May 2008: 13.14″
4) Sep 2008: 12.96″
5) May 2019: 12.59″

Brittany
Guest

The 3km NAM now has a couple storms forming down to the immediate south and then growing in strength while moving to the northeast around 6/7 tomorrow. After that, nothing really shows up in our region, so we’ll have to see if this changes. I’m waiting for HRRR.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Interesting article on an imminent solar minimum https://www.anonews.co/nasa-warns-solar-minimum-could-lead-to-mini-ice-age/

matt
Guest
matt

Weather Channel has Severe Weather likely tomorrow for area.

mizzoufan_87
Guest

What?

matt
Guest
matt

Sun will be out in force

mizzoufan_87
Guest

I tend to not listen to the Weather Channel, as I don’t really find them reliable or accurate.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

I think their real time reporting is great, but I don’t pay much attention to their forecasts.

Dave
Guest
Dave

Gary Lezak is the best!

Skyspy
Guest
Skyspy

Join the discussion…WHEW…how does your nose smell now?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Torcon a 50% tomorrow at moment and no Cap in KC area to tomorrow.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

I think talking about the “torcon” should be banned from this blog.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Why?

John
Guest
John

I think the torcon is the dumbest thing I have ever heard of. It is just some gimmick the Weather Channel came up with to hype severe weather. They had the numbers in the 9’s and 10’s last week on the high risk day and that didn’t pan out. Then the night we had the small tornadoes in our area they didn’t even have it as a 1.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Likely for somewhere in a large area from near Des Moines to near OKC

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary tomorrow If it was to get Badd here Tuesday about what time do you think so ?

Bob
Guest
Bob

Read his blog post and you’ll find out!

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

He, Gary. In what type of model output can we best see this energy that would potentially enhance our severe risk.. on the 500 mb… or something else? Thanks, Gary.

Jack

Dan M
Guest
Dan M

Gary – so are you predicting June to be as wet or wetter then May? Your write up says it will be wet. Just trying to get a better idea of your thoughts on the upcoming months.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

So June will have more wet and heavier rains? Are you kidding me?

Mr. Pete

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Wetter than May?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

This is what happened in 1993. Week by week crest forecasts had to be updated because they just kept getting higher and higher until the major, final one in late July. The same but different indeed…………….

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

You are right – the writing is on the wall. The Kansas lake reservoirs can’t hold any more water from this point on…only maintain their flooded pools.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
The inflow into Tuttle Creek was 21,800 cfs this morning, and the lake was at 90.4% of its storage capacity. The following excerpt from the Manhattan newspaper indicates the dam lost 20% of its storage capacity in the past week.
Manhattan Mercury, May 20: Corps officials say residents don’t need to worry
Brian McNulty, project operations manager for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at the lake, said there is still 30% of the flood pool available. “That’s a pretty substantial rain event that would fill that,” he said.

matt
Guest
matt

To everybody we still have runs later today that could change tomorrow forecast of Severe Weather and Risk and if it Rains overnight to.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, they could become less. LOL

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

The SPC’s outlook text reads: “The tornado threat will be limited due to relatively weak, veered low-level flow initially, but may increase through the evening in tandem with strengthened shear attendant with a 35-45 kt low-level jet focused from northeastern Oklahoma into western Missouri.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

On the newest NAM 3km run (06Z), it shows a lot of smaller, more individual cells forming in eastern Kansas, and central Nebraska, and then a little later into the evening, it shows them former individual cells congealing into two different linear structures, one in eastern Nebraska, and one northern, and western Missouri.

Kole Christian
Guest
Kole Christian

Think they’ll upgrade the enhanced risk to moderate in the area north of KC around Nebraska Iowa Kansas Missouri junctions?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I don’t think so. I know going solely off models isn’t always wise, but there has been zero support of consistent super cells development with this setup. Almost every run shows this being linear, and we’re not even sure where this will set up yet. The safe bet is to just leave it as an enhanced risk. If a moderate risk is issued anywhere, it has a major chance of busting.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

SPC doesn’t seem concerned:

…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…
Tornado: 5% – Slight
Wind: 30% – Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG – Enhanced

..Cook.. 05/27/2019

NAM 3KM shows more a linear wind threat maybe a tail end charlie but not a tornado outbreak situation

mizzoufan_87
Guest

Agreed. The NWS in Pleasant Hill doesn’t seem to be too concerned either, as yesterday on their twitter they leaned towards linear storms moving into the metro.

Becca
Guest
Becca

I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out as Gary seems to be indicating the SPC needs stronger wording. In the past when Gary has parted from the SPC, he has been correct. In this instance I am leaning towards Gary. The SPC relies too heavily on models instead of looking at the big picture.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Small hail and heavy rain in La Cygne. Just couldn’t have 1 day without precip. Ugh!