High Risk: A Powerful & Dangerous Storm Predicted 120 Days Ago By Weather2020

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a HIGH RISK of severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and Texas today.  A powerful storm is developing and it will produce severe weather risks the next couple of days.

severe

We will go in-depth in today’s blog entry, and we will begin with a discussion of how the LRC has been used to make yet another incredibly accurate prediction for this week’s severe weather and flooding risks!

This storm approaching and developing over the plains was predicted to arrive this week by Weather2020 on January 13th, or 127 days ago.  As I am sure many of you have been noticing, the accuracy this season has been rather remarkable, and this is yet another example.  Look at this forecast that has been unchanged in the 1Weather app database since we issued the forecast in January:

1Weather App From January 13

We have had our weather prediction pulse beating on this year’s pattern with accurate forecast after accurate forecast.  Remember, our prediction for this winters snowfall total in KC was 26″ from myself, and 27″ from Jeff Penner by using our knowledge of the LRC.  Kansas City had 29″ of snow this winter.  Add onto that the accurate prediction of the January 12th snow storm 45 days before it happened, and it was down to the date as we got 15 days out predicting a major snowstorm possible on January 12th. What happened?  12″ of snow in the KC metro area, which impacted tailgating for the Indianapolis/Chiefs game out at Arrowhead stadium.  And, this is following many years of increasingly accurate predictions, including the 8-month prediction of Tropical Storm Gordon, and the 55-day prediction of Major Hurricane Harvey the year before.  And, the incredible prediction for the weather outside at the 2014 Super Bowl in East Rutherford, NJ  where the forecast of “no snow and temperatures warming into the 50s” verified, while other forecasts were calling for brutal cold and snow.  How is this being done?  By understanding the cycling pattern and the peer reviewed LRC.  Over 30-years of research is now coming to fruition in these accurate forecasts.

As many of the bloggers and viewers at KSHB remember, we predicted that the second half of May would be wetter than the first half of May, and this latest prediction was made before May began.  We ended up with 3.59″ of rain in the first half of May, so the bar was set pretty high.  Kansas City is currently sitting at 2.11″ so far in the second half of May, and a lot more is on the way……..so much more rain, that we have been working hard at preparing Kansas City and surrounding regions for a potential extreme weather event.  Predicting extreme weather days, weeks, or even months ahead (which is what Weather2020 has done many times in recent years) is quite difficult. Predicting an extreme event a day or two ahead of time is hard.

This storm developing now is absolutely fascinating.  How will it come together today?  Let’s take a look:

severeAgain, there is a High Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  From the Storm Prediction Center:    “An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition, many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas, into western Missouri and western Arkansas.  An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75-90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough.

141Ahead of the system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very favorable for severe thunderstorms.  As the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.  The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property.

This next map on the right shows the climatology for where severe weather is most likely on May 20th, right over Tornado Alley.

The set up is far from easy to explain, in other words, complex:

3

This map above shows the upper level flow at the 500 mb level, or around 18,000 feet up.  There is a big ridge aloft extending from Mississippi northwest to the North Pole. This is splitting the jet stream with one stream over northeastern Canada, and another powerful jet stream being forced south over the southwestern United States. There is an upper level storm intensifying over the Four Corners states today and this energy will move out over the plains tonight.  And, then this happens:

4

The powerful storm forms into a closed upper low over Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a second strong storm diving south over California, and this will back up the surface features, and Kansas City will never really have any cold front passage, or it may have an Occluded front get to near KC, and then it will fall apart and back up in response to the southwestern storm.  More on this tomorrow.

2

The best chance of any severe weather near KC will come from the Tuesday Occluded front (purple), warm front, and dry line.  Notice how KC will not have a wind shift to the north.

Flash Flood Watch:  KC is under a Flash Flood Watch.  And, an extreme rain event is possible in the next two to ten days.  Look at the rainfall forecast from last night’s Canadian Model for the next ten days:

6

This rainfall forecast shows extreme rain amounts over a large area of the United States. KC is in the 15″ range.  With storm systems continuing to drop into the southwestern United States, it will continue to force the fronts to approach KC and stall. Where the focus of thunderstorms is from day to day will have to be analyzed on a day by day basis. It appears that these fronts will be stalling in a position to bring many more thunderstorm chances to our region, and KC is a target for the highest rainfall amounts.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds and dry through 4 PM. After 4 PM there is an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. The chance of rain increases to nearly 100% by 8 PM or near sunset.  Heavy rain is possible on the leading edge, but the leading edge may weaken a bit as it approaches.  High:  60°  Wind: East to northeast at 5-15 mph.
  • Tonight:  A 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms.  It will be heavy at times.  1″ to 3″ likely with flooding possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.
  • Tuesday:  Becoming sunny after 4 PM. There is a 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms, a few thunderstorms may be severe on the leading edge of a new band of increasing thunderstorms from late morning into the early afternoon.  An additional 1″ to 2″ of rain is possible with a flooding risk continuing.  High: 74°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  There will be some moderation today, so we would appreciate it if everyone follows the rules and we continue this great place to share in this weather experience.  Have a great day!

Gary

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Scott
Guest
Scott

Where do I get the 1Weather app? What level of Weather2020 service must I subscribe to so I can get the long range weekly forecasts?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Google Play Store for Android phones. I just Googled 1 Weather app and it shows a link to the app store, or if you have an Apple it should be there too.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

It’s free to anyone who downloads it. I didn’t pay for it.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Three day storm total is now up to 3 1/2 inches here in Independence.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think we should issued a Bust Watch for today’s Enhanced risk in Central MO. In my non-professional opinion, I think that this morning’s thunderstorm activity which stretches into central Oklahoma will make it very difficult for the atmosphere to destablize across the region. There is no real driving force to move the rain out such as a cold front cutting at the back edge of the rain shield, and if there was this would eliminate the severe threat anyway as the triggering mechanism would be just that cold front.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ 15% on Friday thru Saturday and Slight Risk Tomorrow.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

You’re really drawing at straws there buddy.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The rain keeps coming. Looks like we will be in rain at least another 6+ hours

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Yikes, high wind warning for Miami county KS and Cass county until 4AM. What is causing this?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Short term models have been portraying those storms at the end of the line developing kind of into its own MCS and moving more northeast towards us, coming in the early hours of the morning, and as if right now, I don’t see those doing that at the moment. It all looks like it will keep moving east-north-east. I think we want all of this rain to continue to move away from us and for us to dry out, and if this would happen that should increase our chances for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

Brittany
Guest

Well, I don’t want severe weather, so KEEP ON RAINING BABY.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Denver NWS forecast (just for a change of pace): Tonight: Snow. Patchy fog after 11pm. Low around 32. North wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog before 7am. High near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation… Read more »

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Miserable weather. 47 degrees in my backyard with 1.67″ of rain since 3pm. Uggh.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019052100&fh=19

High-res nam looks to be hinting at potential small window of severe weather tomorrow especially east of the city. The faster the front moves north, the more likely we have severe weather.

Drew B
Guest
Drew B

Just above 1.5 as of 9:30 in OP

LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

when can i let my dog out, she doesnt really like rain or cold

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The rain is letting up just a bit. But it’s not going to get any warmer. Hope your dog has a strong bladder!

Brittany
Guest

If it was just 10 degrees colder, it could probably snow right now. Just 10! Isn’t that crazy?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It almost happened once! It snowed in Nebraska and Iowa on May 29, 1947. Kansas City recorded a low of 35 that morning.

John
Guest
John

It is currently 46 degrees, with a wind chill of 39 and heavy rain and thunder at my house north of the city. This late May weather is not what I want with the holiday weekend coming up. I did see in the forecast that it was supposed to be in the 80’s this weekend at least. Maybe it will start feeling more like summer than winter.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Got 3.42 inches of rain for the first half of May, and going through 9:00 PM, I already have 2.62. Definitely going to be wetter in the second 1/2 of May.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2131770763544222&id=126747474046571&notif_t=page_highlights&notif_id=1558391085708442&ref=m_notif Only new information here is timing and few Tornado’s,70pm Wind,1.5 Hail and South of I-70.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Let (not rooting for it at all btw) the big show of 2019 begin………………..March was simply a harbinger of what is to come. Barring some major change this summer I still contend the flood event to come this June-July will exceed (maybe easily) 1993 in many areas.

DustinTheWind
Guest
DustinTheWind

I have this same concern. I feel like we’re in for catastrophic flooding in the coming weeks and months. It’s almost like we’re all just being quiet about it in hopes that crossing our fingers hard enough will stop it from happening. I hope Emergency Management departments are working extra hours planning ahead.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

My yard has burst into an instant lake. I can’t believe a flood warning hasn’t been issued?

John
Guest
John

I always said I wanted to own a house on a lake, but I didn’t want my current house to have a lake form next to it.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Agreed. The ground was already saturated. It’s all runoff now and I’m sure we’ll see some flooding on the 10 o’clock news.

L.B
Guest
L.B

we are going to be wet like we have not been in a long time. Where the heck is Kurt? Did he drown…lol

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

There is no risk of severe weather if that warm front does not lift back north, nor is there a risk of more than 2″ of rain in KC. GFS and Canadian appaear to have made gross errors as looking at radar that narrow band of 4-8″+ rains look like they are setting up in Northern Oklahoma and I-44, not just south of KC. We are at 48F right now. HRRR and NAM 3km look like they are handling the convection better. Wild card is severe risk tomorrow but it will be fleeting and brief 11a-1p

John
Guest
John

I disagree with the comment that there is a low risk of more than 2″ of rain in KC. In my area we are already over 1.2″ and it is still raining heavily and supposed to continue all night and into tomorrow morning. The excessive rain totals are over the next 10 days, which there are chances of thunderstorms everyday.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Low risk of over 3″ tonight. 2″ maybe. I should have said that 🙂 1″ here in Lenexa already near Old Town.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Come on, You also thought there might be 100+ tornadoes today. Now the models are wrong? Looks to me like there will be significant training of cells in the region, indeed south of KC but models have fluctuated that placement every run
Several had bullseye in SE KS, that looks accurate to me.

L.B
Guest
L.B

already at 1.25 here in gardner

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Not to add on to the hype machine, but there is a legit severe weather chance tomorrow around mid-day. Nothing like in Oklahoma today, but I’d say between 11am-3pm is definitely worth monitoring because the sheer around here will be pretty extreme. NAM 3km showed quite a few discrete supercells, so if that’s anything to go by, then one should pay attention.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Three 7’s,

Agreed, depending on the dynamics, a threat does exist tomorrow in the KC Metro, especially East. It will be interesting to see the changes in the morning and whether or not the atmosphere can destabilize

Matt
Guest
Matt

South of I-70.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Tornadoes wise, this was most definitely not a high risk type of an event, especially when there was only 2 tornado reports in the 45% probability for tornadoes.. I would say this was barely moderate even. I think the front really made it tough for there to widespread super cells, while there were tornado warnings throughout most of the day, they were not extremely widespread, and I have not heard any reports of big, violent tornadoes. These days are hard to predict.

Joe
Guest
Joe

SATIRE: NWS just posted a new warning, Misinformation Warning on all posts by Matt. It is recommended that those seeking shelter from misinformation and particularly dangerous and frightening posts, find the safest place in your computer and read past these posts. We expect this warning to continue indefinitely as these posts continue to train over the same areas and will cause confusion and unnecessary concern. 😀

Matt
Guest
Matt

I’m just reporting what you can see Online from like SPC or what others the are saying from other stations.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

What gets me isn’t about how he hypes up severe weather chances and what not. It’s that he’ll reply to comments with this hype machine of his that have absolutely nothing to do with what original commenter is saying. Might as well be spam at this point.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Eh, let the kid learn. He’ll learn. He’s already quoting SPC instead of TWC. That was better than…

/checks comments

a few hours ago.

Matt
Guest
Matt

They all do a good job.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Super windy.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I do agree today seems more like an October rainfall event not a May almost June rainfall event. Rather unique setup.

Bob
Guest
Bob

46 degrees here. It is like football weather. That I’d be watching inside my house while raining.

Brittany
Guest

It’s FREEZING outside and there’s a wall of water coming right over us. Isn’t it supposed to rain overnight?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

comment image

Wow this is amazing. Climatology for today…. exactly right.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0200.html
The guy at Animal station just said maybe 1pm Tornado’s tomorrow Stateline.

John
Guest
John

Why do you want tornadoes so bad? Seems like you are just posting comments at this point trying to find anything that says we will have tornadoes around here. I don’t understand why you would want the destruction that comes from tornadoes?

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0709.html Warm Front is Horizontal so if KC gets behind it would be going backwards.
Also don’t want Tornado’s but their will be some and all types possible.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…yeah you do

L.B
Guest
L.B

What if He does? weather is awesome! no one wants anyone hurt. but we do not get to choose! If it gets bad I will be one of the first to go out, whether it is safe or not, that’s what I do. No one’s feelings are going to change it! Enjoy the storm and think about why or who is in charge

Brittany
Guest

You are literally posting a tornado watch that ends tomorrow MORNING at 1 am and that’s not anywhere around our viewing area. It is far too cold to have tornadoes up in the city tonight. And I second John. All you ever do on here is post about severe weather that is sometimes irrelevant to any conversation.

Matt
Guest
Matt

I’m talking about tomorrow Severe chances because none tonight. Their might be some later in the Week Gary just said.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It’s got the ambiance more of a fall or maybe March to early April storm outside than something on May 20.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

The boundary is really taking away a lot of the area for potential severe weather… NWS should move the high risk just a bit south to account for it.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Wind today and tomorrow Supercells in MO.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Did you mean to reply to my comment? That had nothing to do with what I said…

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol

L.B
Guest
L.B

so what if he does? Is this not a weather blog? God’s power is awesome and it is a sight to behold! no one want’s anyone hurt, but to see weather in it’s extreme is exciting! Do you not slow down and take a look at a car accident? which is more morbid? Quit kidding yourselves! Oh holier than thow

Brittany
Guest

He just wants tornadoes in the KC metro really bad.

Matt
Guest
Matt

No I don’t want any Severe or Winter Weather but it happens. I would perfer Hot everyday.

John
Guest
John

The SPC’s next update is at 8 PM.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Thanks and for Today.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Tornado warning for Kansas and Missouri counties. Cherokee KS over to Opolis, Nashville and Iantha Missouri. Warning in place until 4:45 pm. Confirmed tornado on the ground.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

They’re saying two tornadoes on the ground within one mesocyclone. About 1/2 mile separates the two tornadoes. Winds are about 150 mph, moving to the NE. One just roped out.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Tornado on the ground in Oklahoma. About a mile wide, wedge shaped tornado. Just northwest of Guthrie, near N-NW side of Crescent.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

The wall cloud was huge with multiple vortices, but there was never a full tornado that was a mile wide.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Yep. Multiple reports though of other tornadoes. Mostly on twitter.

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

This cool air mass seems to be cooler than expected – in Kirksville we were to get up to 61, but we’ve barely reached 53. The temp contrast with the warmer moister air is sure to be lots of fuel for more rain. We got 1.49” over the weekend.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Meteorologists in NW Nebraska having a nightmare right now…some models showing rain, others showing 18″ of snow. They may be in for a May Surprise.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Jim Cantore just said MO tomorrow for Storms.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Why are you directing this kind of comment to someone who was talking about snow in Nebraska? How does that have any relevance to his comment?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Just saying where he says going to refire tomorrow but could change. He and Mike Bettes are in OKC.

John
Guest
John

I think the question is what does your comment have to do with snow in NW Nebraska?

Bob
Guest
Bob

/dying

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Oh boy, NWS just upped the rain potential from 1-2 inches to 2-3 inches overnight with 1-2 additional inches tomorrow. I sure hope this doesn’t verify as the Marais Des Cygne is already close to flood stage.

craig
Guest
craig
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

There’s already several tornado watches in the TX panhandle and western OK.

Matt
Guest
Matt

The Warm front just North of OKC/Tulsa.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Looks like storms are moving into the metro within the next couple hours… A lot of rain and lightning with them

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Just heard thunder!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Judging by the numerous supercells forming right now I would go out on a limb to say this could be more significant than 2011 but in a smaller area. Wouldn’t be shocked if there were 100+ tornadoes out of this. Especially with chasers watching them all like a hawk.

The main factor that could reduce tornado count would be storms congealing into a QLCS – won’t eliminate it, but will reduce it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FDR-N0Q-0-6#

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Agree totally.. multiple supercells, but there area in which the ingredients are really coming together is not a huge area. The super outbreak in 2011 was much larger area.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

The cells have sort of struggled to go tornadic, only a Handful of conformed tornados as of right now. I expected a true outbreak, and so far we haven’t really had a large tornado outbreak like they feared ( not over by a long shot ). 100 tornados doesn’t appear to be in the cards, prob not even half that. Now, all it takes is one F3+ in a populated area and all hell will break loose. Let’s hope it continues to be a let down of sorts

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

It is not a huge area, so I do not expect a large number of tornadoes, but does not mean there could 20-30 reports with a couple big tornadoes.

craig
Guest
craig

And here’s something remarkable.
Click the probabilities tab on this new Tornado Watch. All are >95%. Note sure I’ve ever seen that before.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0199_prob.html

Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

Whoa, that is crazy!

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

2nd time ever.. last time was 2011 super outbreak in southeast.

craig
Guest
craig
Brittany
Guest

I don’t know how anyone could be excited about that. At some point, the danger should outweigh the thrill. I hope everyone stays safe.

craig
Guest
craig

Not sure anyone is “excited” about it, Brit. It’s simply a fascinating event that only seems to occur about once every five years. And if you’re going to live in Tornado Alley, you deal with the risk whenever it materializes.

Courtney
Guest
Courtney

Brittany, you’re taking adjectives a little too seriously. Remarkable and interesting don’t equal exciting.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Looks like the general consensus is now showing 1-2″ for KC metro area total rainfall with the 6-8″ band setting up along I-44 where, oddly enough, the heavier thunderstorms are right now.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

We are sooooo totally doomed.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

why do you say that

Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

I am guessing it’s sarcasm.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Yup, that’s why I have my WWII Helmet and M1 Carbine cleaned and ready

craig
Guest
craig

Here’s your PDS Tornado Watch.
comment image

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Most of MO know in Enhanced Risk and more of KS Slight Risk.

Brittany
Guest

Yep, it looks like the SPC is thinking that whatever forms after the rain and storms tomorrow will come through our area and then strengthen a bit to the east.

craig
Guest
craig

That’s a pretty interesting read on the latest forecast for tomorrow. Particularly the part toward the bottom that discusses Kansas. …The Kansas/southern Nebraska vicinity… As a band of cold-frontal storms moves eastward out of the Plains and into Missouri through early stages of the period — likely accompanied by ongoing risk for all-hazard severe weather, at least some heating through possibly broken cloud cover is expected to occur westward, across the Kansas vicinity, in its wake. With a remnant, modestly moist airmass, this heating may yield relatively substantial CAPE given steep mid-level lapse rates/cold air aloft associated with the upper… Read more »

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

yeah, what you said

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

I thought it was very interesting as well.. we may have some severe weather, but look at the temps and dew points that the line of storms as to work with as it moves into Missouri.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2019052012&fh=32
That will be quite the warm and moist air mass, plus all of the upper air winds should create a descent tornado risk… I am not necessarily expecting a moderate risk to our eat, but it would not shock me.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Enhanced Risk in KS but maybe high one.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s starting.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AMA-N0Q-1-48

Supercells are splitting off from the outflow from earlier thunderstorms.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

The Weather Decoded video discussed this in regards to what to look out for. He indicated if we start to see the formation of lots of little supercells this could spell trouble. He said it would look like popcorn rather than one large or straight line MCS train of rain. Also, they think it will really get cranking about 4 o’clock today and last into the evening hours. Weather folks on the local TV stations are going to be going bonkers today. Good Bless them. They save lives, especially in weather events like this.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html KCMO know Marginal Risk and Enhanced Risk in KS just Southeastern KS but updated OP high to 63.