Good morning bloggers,
There is a HIGH RISK of severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and Texas today. A powerful storm is developing and it will produce severe weather risks the next couple of days.
We will go in-depth in today’s blog entry, and we will begin with a discussion of how the LRC has been used to make yet another incredibly accurate prediction for this week’s severe weather and flooding risks!
This storm approaching and developing over the plains was predicted to arrive this week by Weather2020 on January 13th, or 127 days ago. As I am sure many of you have been noticing, the accuracy this season has been rather remarkable, and this is yet another example. Look at this forecast that has been unchanged in the 1Weather app database since we issued the forecast in January:
We have had our weather prediction pulse beating on this year’s pattern with accurate forecast after accurate forecast. Remember, our prediction for this winters snowfall total in KC was 26″ from myself, and 27″ from Jeff Penner by using our knowledge of the LRC. Kansas City had 29″ of snow this winter. Add onto that the accurate prediction of the January 12th snow storm 45 days before it happened, and it was down to the date as we got 15 days out predicting a major snowstorm possible on January 12th. What happened? 12″ of snow in the KC metro area, which impacted tailgating for the Indianapolis/Chiefs game out at Arrowhead stadium. And, this is following many years of increasingly accurate predictions, including the 8-month prediction of Tropical Storm Gordon, and the 55-day prediction of Major Hurricane Harvey the year before. And, the incredible prediction for the weather outside at the 2014 Super Bowl in East Rutherford, NJ where the forecast of “no snow and temperatures warming into the 50s” verified, while other forecasts were calling for brutal cold and snow. How is this being done? By understanding the cycling pattern and the peer reviewed LRC. Over 30-years of research is now coming to fruition in these accurate forecasts.
As many of the bloggers and viewers at KSHB remember, we predicted that the second half of May would be wetter than the first half of May, and this latest prediction was made before May began. We ended up with 3.59″ of rain in the first half of May, so the bar was set pretty high. Kansas City is currently sitting at 2.11″ so far in the second half of May, and a lot more is on the way……..so much more rain, that we have been working hard at preparing Kansas City and surrounding regions for a potential extreme weather event. Predicting extreme weather days, weeks, or even months ahead (which is what Weather2020 has done many times in recent years) is quite difficult. Predicting an extreme event a day or two ahead of time is hard.
This storm developing now is absolutely fascinating. How will it come together today? Let’s take a look:
Again, there is a High Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and Texas. From the Storm Prediction Center: “An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition, many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas, into western Missouri and western Arkansas. An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75-90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough.
Ahead of the system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very favorable for severe thunderstorms. As the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains. The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property.
This next map on the right shows the climatology for where severe weather is most likely on May 20th, right over Tornado Alley.
The set up is far from easy to explain, in other words, complex:
This map above shows the upper level flow at the 500 mb level, or around 18,000 feet up. There is a big ridge aloft extending from Mississippi northwest to the North Pole. This is splitting the jet stream with one stream over northeastern Canada, and another powerful jet stream being forced south over the southwestern United States. There is an upper level storm intensifying over the Four Corners states today and this energy will move out over the plains tonight. And, then this happens:
The powerful storm forms into a closed upper low over Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a second strong storm diving south over California, and this will back up the surface features, and Kansas City will never really have any cold front passage, or it may have an Occluded front get to near KC, and then it will fall apart and back up in response to the southwestern storm. More on this tomorrow.
The best chance of any severe weather near KC will come from the Tuesday Occluded front (purple), warm front, and dry line. Notice how KC will not have a wind shift to the north.
Flash Flood Watch: KC is under a Flash Flood Watch. And, an extreme rain event is possible in the next two to ten days. Look at the rainfall forecast from last night’s Canadian Model for the next ten days:
This rainfall forecast shows extreme rain amounts over a large area of the United States. KC is in the 15″ range. With storm systems continuing to drop into the southwestern United States, it will continue to force the fronts to approach KC and stall. Where the focus of thunderstorms is from day to day will have to be analyzed on a day by day basis. It appears that these fronts will be stalling in a position to bring many more thunderstorm chances to our region, and KC is a target for the highest rainfall amounts.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Increasing clouds and dry through 4 PM. After 4 PM there is an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. The chance of rain increases to nearly 100% by 8 PM or near sunset. Heavy rain is possible on the leading edge, but the leading edge may weaken a bit as it approaches. High: 60° Wind: East to northeast at 5-15 mph.
- Tonight: A 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms. It will be heavy at times. 1″ to 3″ likely with flooding possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.
- Tuesday: Becoming sunny after 4 PM. There is a 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms, a few thunderstorms may be severe on the leading edge of a new band of increasing thunderstorms from late morning into the early afternoon. An additional 1″ to 2″ of rain is possible with a flooding risk continuing. High: 74°
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. There will be some moderation today, so we would appreciate it if everyone follows the rules and we continue this great place to share in this weather experience. Have a great day!