A Series Of Wet Storm Systems Is Developing

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Good morning bloggers,

An extreme weather event is possible in the next two weeks.  A major flooding event is likely going to materialize over the plains states, and Kansas City is a potential target.  The weather pattern is evolving into one that will produce multiple chances of heavy thunderstorms.  There will likely be a zone that gets hit by each of these storm systems, and given the time of year and moisture available there is a chance of 4 to 6 inch rainfall amounts from smaller scale convective features that form over the plains.  This forecast map just happened to pop up on my screen during the 6 PM newscast after the new GFS came in showing nearly 15″ of rain near KC, and nearly 10″ near Wichita.  Is this really possible, because if it happens, it will be an extreme weather event that would be record breaking.

10

Every model I have seen has at least 4″ to 6″ over the next ten days in this region with a 10″ bullseye.  Here is last night’s GFS model:

1

Last night’s 06z GFS model had a 20″ bullseye.  It is something to pay close attention to.  What is causing this set up? The LRC!  The weather pattern that set up last fall was a very wet one in this same area. Remember October when 10″ of rain fell in KC?  This is the same pattern now, and we are getting the late May version of this.

2

This upper level, 500 mbar, forecast map shows the flow valid tomorrow night. There is a blocking upper high over central Canada that is influencing the jet stream and helping push it way south.  A storm will be ejecting out across Kansas Saturday night.  A more energetic pattern then sets up for early next week:

3

A strong jet stream will be intensifying over the eastern Pacific in response to the blocking over Canada.  There is a lot going on here, and the blocking and resulting flow east of the blocking over Canada will provide the conditions for a strong baroclinic zone (frontal zone or temperature contrast) to be maintained near the Kansas/Missouri region for around a week at least.  And, with the moisture available from the warm Gulf of Mexico, the fuel will be available for flooding and severe weather set ups through Tornado Alley.

4

The flow by next Friday weakens a bit, but the blocking upper highs are still a major influence, and this will likely keep the front (baroclinic zone) near Kansas and Missouri which will provide the conditions for the generation of more thunderstorm complexes, severe weather risks, and flooding.

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The set up for Monday has our attention for many reasons, but we also have to monitor Saturday closely.  Here are the risks:

day1otlk_1200

day2otlk_0600

day4prob

These are the 1, 2, and 4 day severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.  There is a lot to discuss here, and today’s risk is way out northwest and southwest of KC allowing us a day to breath and analyze.  I need to do my own in-depth analysis and see how Saturday looks as the new data comes in.  We will update you on 41 Action News tonight, and then in the blog comments on Weather2020.com. Join in the conversation over there.

Have a great day! Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Lots of convection showing up on radar now. Anyone thinking about severe weather this evening should put that thought to bed. It’s going to be raining all morning.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Not so sure that’s the case…

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Blue skies are moving in here in Lawrence. I think the main determiner will depend on how fast the storms in Texas get here and how much cloud cover they send this way.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

It’s interesting to see that EAX has been completely disregarding the excessive rainfall amounts forecast as convective contamination, while TOP is now anticipating an increasing chance of a “significant flooding event.” Normally the offices try to coordinate and stay on the same page.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Wow! The SPC has already issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather for Monday!
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Matt
Guest
Matt

In Tornado Alley and we are under Marginal Risk. At moment only tip of Southeestern MO under Enhanced Risk today. Hail/Wind are big frets and if Sun can come out for a couple of hours then Tornado’s even Isolated could happen.

Brandon Aubrey
Guest
Brandon Aubrey

The couplet for that tornado is crazy as is the reflectivity off the Dodge City doppler. Thankfully it will miss Greenburg to the north.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

Large tornado ongoing just NE of Dodge city. Scary Stuff.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Classic hook echo. Hopefully it’s not violent.

Craig
Guest
Craig

This is from about an hour ago. Central Nebraska, near Cozad. Crazy stuff!!
https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu/status/1129556321844506624?s=21

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Thats one of the most amazing weather videos I’ve ever seen

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Holy moly!
I can’t decide who are crazier: People who climb Mt Everest, or storm chasers. :-/

Adam
Guest
Adam

The offspring of a person who climbs MT. Everest and a storm chaser would be a wild child.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

If the HRRR has anything to say about tomorrow, things could get a little bad.
comment image
comment image

If we’re going just straight off of this model run, then the main thing to be concerned about would be individual cells, especially north of the metro, but then again, none of those storms might not be severe at all, so it could go either way I guess.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Upgraded STW to Tornado Watch in KS.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Maybe Gary can chime in on this. If that’s right Johnson and Jackson,Cass County would be getting a Bad Storm. The Weather channel has no Rain at 6am Leawod.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

This particular model is valid for 19z, which is 1:00 tomorrow afternoon. It’s hard to tell the intensity of one particular storm based on a model. If you want severe weather, (which I don’t know why you would) then that’d be mainly later in the day.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Good reason to point out, this is only modeling the base reflectivity, so it would be hard to tell for sure.

Matt
Guest
Matt

NWSKC says 11am Western MO when Severe Weather starts.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Severe weather isn’t even a guarantee, dude.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Is second half of May still projected to be wetter than the first half ? Or will the rain cut off Tuesday leaving us dry until June.
Hoping for a dry Memorial Day weekend.

Joe
Guest
Joe

It looks likely that we will see twice as much rain over the next 10 days as we received during the first half of the month so yes. The LRC doesn’t change based on model data. As for Memorial Day weekend, I believe it will be wet.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I can’t wait until the snowflake contest starts.

Bob
Guest
Bob

/dying

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

lol
Atta boy Snow Miser 😁

Nate
Guest
Nate

This is so scary, I already pulled out my WWII Helmet and M1 Carbine from the basement

Bob
Guest
Bob

Pro tip… when you shoot at the floods, shoot at an angle.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

comment image Mo river basin gonna be in trouble big time.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Basin and basements

Mike h
Guest
Mike h

Gary, The storm you’re referring about was the October 6-9 storm where we got 11 inches, correct? The same event to set the record for rainfall in a four day stretch? Saturday will be 223 days since October 6.

Gabe
Guest
Gabe

This is the beginning of the “trough that doesn’t move” phase of the pattern, which I think is the end of the cycle. A new one should begin the 1st week of June to match that early Oct storm you reference, which was the kickoff to this “year’s” pattern.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

The new cycle begins around the June 6-10 area.

I pinned it down as June 8 several months ago, but these events seem to sometimes not quite be landing exactly on the predicted date.

As for where we are now: The coming storms probably correspond to the March 30 rain/snow event and the February 15 snowfall, respectively.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary,
I am going to go on a trip up to Canada between July 12-18th, how does the weather look for Sioux Lookout, Ontario, Canada during that period?
Thanks!

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC will potentially upgrade the hatched area to an enhanced risk… it is all depends on storms before 2:00 o’clock and how much the atmosphere can destabilize.. storms will potentially develop along the dry line in western ok and southern ks… these would move up our way and would need to be watched. If you want severe weather, you do not want storms before 2:00 o’clock in the afternoon.

Jack

matt
Guest
matt

Thanks was going to say just updated day 2 Outlook with Enhanced Risk to include all of border of Arkansas/MO/OK but Kansas not in it.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

It is the hatched area that they are talking about upgrading to an enhanced risk.

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

The snow crap is nuts and the MISSOURI river will be goin, back up too

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

There are 20 comments on here. 18 of them have a net negative rating from all the downvoting.

There’s so much negativity on here. Why? There’s no point in it. It’s literally a weather blog.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

why even pay attention to it…I dont even look that anymore. There is some trolling action going on there…don’t acknowledge/feed the trolls.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Those that build/live on a flood plain should know it’s a floodplain. Why are the taxpayers burdened with paying the eventual bailouts? That goes for farmers too. There should be consequences for their actions.

John
Guest
John

They do, that is why there is flood insurance. Your comments are repetitive and not well thought out, but whatever the problem is that you have with farmers providing your food you eat I do not get it? Maybe you do not like vegetables or anything made with corn, but I do not see what your point is.

Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

I am guessing Spooky doesn’t know any/many farmers.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

The forecast from NOAA is .25 all weekend for areas west of Salina, so like I said a couple of days ago, a nothing burger west of hwy I-135. But big time rains in KC and especially SE Kansas look out.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Up here in leavenworth there is a nice trail/park downtown along the river. It’s been closed since the last flood and the whole trail is covered with sand. It was smart of the town to not clean it up just yet, and leave the sandbags along the riverfront community center. The river is still high and if we get this kind of rain as predicted it’s going to be bad.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

FV3 holds a bullseye of 12-18 inches of rain in, and south and east of the immediate metro. (Goes from today through 1AM June 2nd).
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Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Isn’t this the same model that kept over predicting snowfall totals this winter?

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

Even if we get half that, it is a huge amount of water!

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Correct, even if we get just 7-10 (I say just, but that’s still a lot of water), that would near the record for all-time wettest May.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

That rainfall is nuts. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a potential flooding threat in the 20+ years I’ve lived here. As for severe weather, the models don’t show too much happening, except for maybe some storms coming in late tomorrow night.

matt
Guest
matt

Just updated Risk for Today and almost all of Nebraska under Enhanced Risk. Also H. Outlook shows Severe Weather the next couple days for area besides Flooding.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

So, I’m trying to figure out what your deal is. Are you one of those people that is easily entertained by severe weather or are you just looking for something to add? Almost all your comments on this blog are about severe weather risks in areas that really don’t matter to us, but then you go on to talk about the media and the hype train they love building so they can get ratings, as has been mentioned previously. I think it would do you a lot of good to stop watching the big media tycoons and their hyped up… Read more »

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Calm down. We’re in a slight risk for tomorrow and the models aren’t showing anything significant. You need to move to Oklahoma or Texas, dude.

matt
Guest
matt

At Moment they don’t but can change with future updates before tomorrow like Enhanced Risk in Nebraska right know get shiffeted into KS but cloud cover and Morning Rains might not make that happen.
I like watching Severe Weather coverage on TV but no damage please and no need to go Chasing them.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The problem is this is just the late may version of this pattern. I shutter to think what this holds in late June/July.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

And even if it shifts north, it won’t help…still all going into the river. Some of these models have us reaching over 20″ in total for the month. This is the ray of hope: Warm Cycle. April was dry in the early part of the month, and it was a warm cycle. In December, same thing. (Yes, it was above average, but it mostly fell in two events at the end of the month. Most of December was dry.) Maybe, possibly, hopefully, this will dry June and July out a bit? August though…we could see multiple events like that post-eclipse… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

June/ July version much likely much drier than the May version, which is by far our wettest time of the year. What got you so concerned about July? I’m praying we get much drier summer pattern sooner than later, I will be glad when July comes around as it should finally dry out. The Mid-Summer version of this won’t feature nearly as strong storm systems, and they will be much further north. Sounds good to me?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

He’s worried about nightly storms like in July of 1992 and 1993.

July 1992 had just 8 days with 0.0″. July 1993 had only 6. 15.47″ and 10.90″ respectively.

It wouldn’t be unexpected this year, I’ll say that.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Absolutely agree! This July could easily rival those infamous two………….

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I think I see Foods point they’re concerned about nightly MCS systems coming down. The only thing there is you never know where an MCS is going to track they’ll often times March straight East so if they’re in the Dakotas and Nebraska and maybe Iowa and MN get most of it? Crap shoot, but many signs point to above avg precip

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Actually many times they turn south into the hot humid air.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

We set a record for Maryville yesterday. We had 95 degrees and the old record was 92 set back in 1930’s. It was hot mowing!
Michael

CaptainKU
Guest
CaptainKU

If this hits in the right spots, many of the Kansas lakes and reservoirs will cross into emergency territory.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

That’s coming for sure. Even if not in the next few days sometime in June if this pattern continues, which the LRC says it will.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Not necessarily. Remember, April was quite dry, which was last cycle.

John
Guest
John

You cannot say April was a dry month because we had above average rainfall. At least my comment at the beginning of May was called hilarious because I said April was a dry month.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But only because the storm on the last day. :S

John
Guest
John

I get both sides because I argued with Gary about it for an entire day. It is all in how you perceive it because to me April was a very dry month until the last 2 days of the month, so yes technically we ended April above average on precip., but it for the most part was very dry. I would take that dry 40 day stretch again here real soon.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

But I am talking about the reservoirs – they simply have not been able to let any water out at all.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

https://www.wibw.com/content/news/Manhattan-city-officials-stress-the-importance-of-flood-preparedness-509921551.htmlMay 14, 2019  | Updated: Tue 5:25 PM, May 14, 2019
MANHATTAN, Kan. (WIBW) – Manhattan city leaders took to social media on Monday to notify residents they should start preparing for potential flooding due to Tuttle Creek Lake releases. . . For officials at Tuttle Creek to start releasing water, without regard to downstream conditions, the lake will have to rise to 1,136 feet. “We need people to start getting prepared now, so that if we, if we get to that point that evacuation becomes necessary, it can happen quickly and safely.” City of Manhattan, Public Information Officer, Vivienne Uccello says.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Some of those rainfall amounts are just insane.