Video Blog Today As The Weather Pattern Heats Up

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Good morning bloggers,

A very active pattern is continuing across most of the USA.  Today, I will share my thoughts on the video blog, and then on 41 Action News we will go in-depth as we describe this fascinating weather pattern. Just look at one of the precipitation forecasts for the next two weeks:

fv3p_apcpn_us_64

  • Four feet of snow is likely in the Sierra, NV in late May, which I am not sure has ever happened before?
  • Look at how wide spread the 2″ plus rainfall totals are. The pink shade shows the 2″ or more totals
  • Kansas City is in the 8″+ range, and the rainfall amounts go all the way

Today’s Video Blog:

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Sunny & Hot.  It will be breezy with southwest winds 15-30 mph.  High:  87° to 90°
  • Tonight:  Clear and staying warm and breezy with south winds 10-20 mph. Low:  65° to 70°
  • Friday:  A few more clouds, very warm, and muggy. South to southwest winds 15-25 mph. High:  87°

We hope you are having fun, learning, and enjoying this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great day, and go over to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here,     ,to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Emily BBeccaEastOfEdenf00dl3RickMcKC Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Wonder if they have such a thing as a PDS Flash Flood Watch – that may be what is needed Tuesday morning. The scenario GFS shows I do not know if some of it could be false convective feedback but wow this wall of water would form near Emporia and pivot NE along I-35 into KC and stall with raining torrential tropical nature downpours for 5-6 hours. Would be a setup such as the Plaza Flood ’78, Brush Creek / Plaza flooding ~2 years ago, but 30-60% more rain and over a much larger area if that were to happen

Becca
Guest
Becca

I saw that in the models. We are selling our home and have our home inspection Monday. We have never had water in our basement and I fear this would be the one time we could. At least the rains come a day later. Not good.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

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RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Ridiculous. (Not you Foodl3, but that amount of rain). It looks like a hurricane forecast over us.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What’s even more interesting is this:
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EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That would render May the wettest month on record (current record: 16.17″, September 1914) by a huge margin.

Wow.

Emily B
Guest
Emily B

This does not shock me in the least. We had almost 8″ from the last multi-day bout of rain (SE corner of Shawnee County – Berryton). The water is still trickling into the basement (1930’s house with old stone foundation & concrete overlay) so I bought some Quick Dam’s to at least direct the water in a certain direction so half the floor isn’t a river again.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Gary did not seem concerned at all with severe weather for Saturday, and said we may have “some” severe weather for Monday-Tuesday set up. Very much more concerned about large amounts of rainfall and flooding.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Expanded Enhanced Risk into to par of Southwestern MO.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

My A/C is cranking tonight.

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

Today was our first day this year in Kirksville in the 80’s, & it was 89! Almost had our first day in the 90’s before we had highs in the 80’s! Incredible when just a few mornings ago it was 36!

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Anybody want an avocado?
comment image:large

Matt
Guest
Matt

Why we are under only a Slight Risk at moment.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Because literally all the models (GFS, FV3, and NAM) have been showing storms way south of us.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Those storm chasers tweets really ruined everyone. Even Gary was very calm on the news tonight.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Because he’s waiting for more data and it’s just Thursday evening.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I’m still trying to figure out why you think Saturday holds a severe weather risk. It really doesn’t. Flooding risk? Sure, but not severe weather.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Media Outlets do and they know more so do some Websites.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Matt

STOP! Sure, other media will hype this system up as much as possible for the ratings. Follow the LRC and you will get a forecast without hype. There is a potential for the KC metro to experience severe weather, but the main show will most likely be South and West of us. Watch the trends, not click bait media

Matt
Guest
Matt

I’m not talking about local stations/SPC at moment but like Weather channel,Chasers,Accuweather.

Bob
Guest
Bob

That’d be your problem. Don’t listen/watch Weather channel,Chasers,Accuweather. They only exist because of eyeballs and ads.

Saturday will be fine. Enjoy your day. It might rain. It is May in Kansas.

Matt
Guest
Matt

If theirs Clouds then just Heavy Rain. We won’t know what happens intil Saturday.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Guys, I was just trying to make a funny comment, not start a revolution.

Rob
Guest
Rob

This is the best comment in the history of this blog.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

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GFS 18z shows up to 13″ of rain near KC metro by WED AM.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

WOW!! GFS currently has some real heavy thunderstorms moving into the city on Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning around 12/1. I really hope that changes because we sure as crap don’t needn’t 13” of rain here!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This would pretty much mean everyone who has a basement will have it flood, even those who like me have been fortunate to never have it flood before…. that much soil erosion – this would be historic if it happened. Bulk of the rain would fall in a 7 hour period which would be 3-4″/hr rain rates at time.

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019051618&fh=39

Latest 3km NAM tells me that we need watch out Saturday evening– no morning t storms at all, cloud cover may be an issue, but it has lots of storms developing tells me there should be an enhanced risk in eastern Kansas. Tornado threat looks to maybe be not as big of an issue with lower helecity values.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Theirs some out head of line of have to watch.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Greg Forbes just said 40 percent chance of seen a Tornado on Saturday Kansas City at moment but could go down if theirs Cloud cover or up it theirs Sun.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

This weekend has the makings of a nothing burger for Kansas if you are NW of the turnpike. Storm chasers go east, north or south of Kansas, or go home.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Shocked a Flash Flood Watch isn’t out yet. This could be a life threatening flash flood situation if some areas like the GFS 12z shows get 14″ of rainfall in 12 hours.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

That’s not in 12 hours. That’s the total through next week.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Some serious lift from about Marysville, MO to Olathe and down south toward El Dorado and Wichita at about 1 PM, but again, it’s still 2 days away, so things could change.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sbli&rh=2019051606&fh=60&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Must be a snowstorm coming. Lots of weather experts weighing in.

Farmers should be out finishing their planting today and tomorrow. Guaranteed taxpayer payments.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Most fields are still too wet to work. Try sticking to the concepts you know and understand. You are clueless about Agriculture, but maybe you can contribute if the discussion ever turns to being a bitter A-Hole

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Here’s what tomorrow at 7pm looks like with the lift index. Click in purple area out in western Kansas for the Sqew-T charts. They show significant hail and tornados as possible hazard.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sbli&rh=2019051606&fh=42&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Here’s the SigTor map. Clicking on the purple/pink blob in SW Kansas, the Skew-T chart indicates a PDS Tornado. Particularly Dangerous Situation is type of warning associated with tornado watch/warnings.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2019051606&fh=42&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

So basically, we’re doomed. Got it.

Matt
Guest
Matt

So you want know bad Weather instead on Snow.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But here’s what Saturday looks like for KC metro – no sigtor

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Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019051612&fh=44

The nam is really hinting at some good most likely super cells developing and heading our way in the early to middle afternoon period. The thing that is different about Saturday’s set up for KC is that we would be on the eastern side of the risk, not the wester, so we would be more in the zone where the storms develop. Usually, the developing area is more out by Salina, Dodge City, and Wichita.. something to watch.

matt
Guest
matt

I would second it and expand the Enhanced Risk more into Central Nebraska.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

There was a tornado warning about thirty minutes ago in Illinois about 30 miles SW of where I was staying. Fortunately the inbound plane made it here and will be headed home soon. Looking forward to being home.

matt
Guest
matt

Illinois under STW.

Becca
Guest
Becca

Gary, it looks as if the bulk of severe weather continues to be concentrated down South. When the jet stream shifts North in June would that also shift the severe weather risks North closer to us and the heavy rains we have been getting farther North?

mizzou_fan87
Guest

June is usually when severe weather starts to wind down.

Becca
Guest
Becca

I realize this, but in this LRC the severe stuff has all been way South and it has been relatively quiet this year in KC. So that is why I am wondering if in this LRC the severe risk will shift more towards our area when the jet retreats.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think in this scenario we get into nightly MCS setups when this happens as the retreating jet stream implies below that jet stream a anticyclone sets up. Coupled with this patterns stalled warm front that wavers back and forth for prolonged periods… yeah… not good

Becca
Guest
Becca

So we are pretty much going to be dealing with a flooding scenario all summer?

matt
Guest
matt

Not good means Tornado’s.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

No it doesn’t. A stalling front that wavers back and forth would probably mean flooding. Why don’t you move to Oklahoma if you want to see tornadoes so bad?

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Does anyone know if a sporting Kansas City game has ever been moved up to an earlier time due to threatening weather? Just wondering based on the forecast if it’s possible that the game could be moved up to earlier in the day instead of at 7:30 PM Saturday night if timing of storms could make the game unplayable or delayed. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

The map you displayed shows 2″ for central KS where I live for the rest of the month (but I know the maps are unreliable beyond 6 days), I’ll take it but not quite the monsoon I thought the second half of May would be. But it could change.

Just 596 Days til Trump’s re-election.:)

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Thursday to you sir!! It has been a while since I have been able to write as things have been trying to keep up with mowing and end of the year school. I have had to push so much this year because many areas are still too wet to take the 0 turn mower. Just wanted to quickly write and say thanks for the excellent discussion this morning; really liked the example of the divergent flow and the description-of that upper level ridge in Canada. This would be one of the features I would never have caught onto… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Looks like the SPC is in agreement with the severe storm setup according to their discussion.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

matt
Guest
matt

It can change before tomorrow so can Saturday here before Saturday

Ross (N. Overland Park)
Guest
Ross (N. Overland Park)

36 days and the days start getting shorter again! Time to get all the seed pods out of the gutters before the monsoons arrive.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Severe weather looks to be on tap for tomorrow from the Texas panhandle northwards into SW Nebraska near Ogallala. From Ogallala it cuts NE towards Sioux Falls. Afternoon is ripe across central Nebraska along this line as shown on the SIGTOR map. Also, west-central Kansas is in play.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2019051606&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

In the evening the severity ramps up across west-central Kansas southwards into Oklahoma.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2019051606&fh=45&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

These are supported by high CAPE values, and energy/helicity shown here.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ehi03&rh=2019051606&fh=45&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Gary, do you think there will be numerous tornado outbreaks tomorrow as these seem to indicate?

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

The issue with tomorrow is the cap… models do not have a lot of storm initiation in western Kansas, up where the enhanced risk now is the most likely spot for the moderate risk because it is near the triple point and storm initiation is more likely there.

matt
Guest
matt

Also Dryline.

matt
Guest
matt

Yes if theirs a high Torcon.

craig
Guest
craig

This is some pretty stout stuff for tomorrow. If you were ever to go chasing, head west.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2016042418&fh=loop&r=us_c&dpdt=

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Gary, are you expecting it to rain all day Saturday or will it be more scattered with some breaks. Planning an outdoor graduation party, and I just want to know what to expect.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

So Gary, it sounds like the Weston Wine Festival may be impacted by the wet weather. Will it be severe or is that to be determined since it depends on how much heat builds in the area? Leading to an unstable atmosphere.

craig
Guest
craig

In 2017, the Oroville Dam in northern California nearly failed. After $1B in repairs, the hope is that the primary and emergency spillways are ready for 2019.
The snowpack above the dam was 150% of normal this year and now, as Gary shows, 4-8″ of rain is on the way with 4 feet of snow at higher elevation. All of this is coming with Lake Oroville already at 99% of capacity.
http://oroville.lakesonline.com/Level/

Jack in Overland Park
Guest
Jack in Overland Park

Gary, I know you said the question for Saturday will be whether or not it will be rainy or sunny in order for the atmosphere to destabilize, but being 2 day away, what do you think at this time is the potential answer to that question? Based off the nam it looks like it has thunderstorms forming in Texas late Saturday night and maintaining its juice to then intensify during the day, leaving us dry and 2500-3500 cape values to build in with some shear but not very high helicity. GFS builds in the same levels of cape with ongoing… Read more »

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Love the fact that the weather is going to cooperate tomorrow so I can get all of my landscaping finished, yard mowed, second round of fertilizer down, and be able to enjoy some sunshine. I know it will be hot, but not going to complain, because I love sunshine. Here’s hoping that the models once again overstate the precipitation amounts. It’s been nice not having to water the lawn, but too much of a good thing is not always a good thing. Happy Friday Eve!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Just 223 days until Christmas!

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Only 7 weeks until Independence Day, 24 weeks until Halloween and 28 weeks until Thanksgiving!

DustinTheWind
Guest
DustinTheWind

And 52 weeks until May 16th!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

That’s funny right there I don’t care who you are…

Nitpicker
Guest
Nitpicker

Nope. 52 weeks from today is May 14th.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Memorial Day about 11 days away. My birthday is three days away.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Only one day left until tomorrow