Tornado Season Has Only One Month Left

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Good morning bloggers,

Traditional Tornado Alley has had a very quiet severe weather season thus far, even though there has been no lack of storm systems and rain.  It has just been too cool thus far.  Iowa has yet to have one tornado in 2019.  And, Kansas City has yet to have a Tornado Watch:

2019_torww_to_date

As you can see above, Tornado Alley has been very quiet when it comes to a lot of things so far this season. And, tornado watches have yet to be issued from Kansas City northward in 2019.  There have been a few severe thunderstorm watches as you can see below, in fact tornado alley is more apparent by looking at the severe thunderstorm watches:

2019_svrww_to_date

Severe Weather Reports as of today:

2019_annual_map_all

This can and likely will change fast in the next two weeks.  Her is the climatology for tornadoes on May 15th:

136

Why would I say tornado season has only one month left?  By June 15th, the average position of the jet stream shifts north, and with it the conditions favorable for tornadoes decreases after around the middle of June and shifts into the northern plains.  There are still occasional chances during the summer months, and there are still severe weather risks. It is just that the frequency and strength of tornadoes usually dramatically falls off as summer begins.

The Developing Pattern:

day3otlk_0730

The risk of severe weather over the plains will be increasing Friday into Saturday, and then early next week as well.  The day 3 risk, shown above, still has some big questions surrounding it, and then there are two storm systems that will move out over the plains states with risks shifting north and east, and then backing up to the west as the next storm approaches.

1

This surface map above shows Friday’s set up, and the map below shows the set up for Saturday.  This set up would once again have rain cooled air affecting the instability near KC. Now, it is still quite undetermined.

2

The Monday storm is looking much more impressive:

3

There is some blocking going on over Canada and the jet stream is being forced stronger and farther south.  A series of strong storm systems is about to interact with high humidity, the low level fuel for thunderstorms from the Gulf of Mexico, which will lead to some significant severe weather risks.  I still need another day of analyzing before I get too specific.  Storm chasers are likely flocking out to traditional tornado alley as these set ups approach!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We hope you are enjoying the daily conversation!  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog and let’s track these development.

Gary

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TerryMattJack in Overland ParkGaryNick Recent comment authors
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Terry
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Terry

comment image GFS 00z wow look at all the Heavy thunderstorms near KCk

Matt
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Matt

Saturday?

Terry
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Terry

That’s for Tuesday

f00dl3
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f00dl3

18z GFS continues trend for dangerous flash flooding situation setting up Monday early in the morning and lasting all day Monday, with the higher severe weather risk over areas that have seen the higher severe risks all Spring along I-44.

comment image

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Tuesday early in the morning*

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

On the 12Z GFS 384hr map it looks like a schnauzer is running towards the east coast and left a present behind over Southern Missouri, into Oklahoma and Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019051512&fh=384

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I never would have noticed something like that if somebody didn’t point it out to me.

Adam
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Adam

Animals in radar images. Nice

Nick
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Nick

Move over sun dog… Rain dog.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

comment image

Wowzie look at that GFS rainfall – heavy rain all day Monday would limit severe risk but if this is accurate someone could get 5-8″ of rain Monday alone. I think this scenario sadly would fit the LRC more than a severe weather outbreak – I mean look at October.

Jack in Overland Park
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Jack in Overland Park

Gary, when you analyzing severe weather set ups, do you look at primarily the location of the triple point, dew point levels, and cape levels? Or do you also look at the SRH and EHI values and supercell composite? I know the supercell composite is just a combination of overlapping cape values, shear, and helicity so it will contain a higher error because it is just multiplying parameters that already contain error in themselves. I am much more in the dark when it comes to analyzing models for severe weather set ups compared to winter storms and would love to… Read more »

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Now the GFS has heavy thunderstorms coming into KC early in the morning on Tuesday and then nothing for the rest of the day.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

Why are you modeling something a week out?

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Just looking at models.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Why are we (TWC, Accuweather, Chasers on twitter) hypecasting something a week out?

Bob
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Bob

#Pageviews

Matt
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Matt

Just in case it gets really bad like Greatest Threat is issued meaning High on all types.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Models all over, saw a map last night on Weather Channel, Euro had 3-5″ over central Kansas, GFS had .50-.75 for a 7 day total. I would say isolated tornado’s over NE, none in Kansas, and Moore, OK will have two. Not complaining, mother nature can keep the severe weather (even though hail would have a slight benefit if it wasn’t on my home, I have a high mileage exotic that’s worth more dead than alive).

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Keith…..lmao buddy. I’m pulling for some hail for you, ive been there!

Urbanity
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Urbanity

lol

matt
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matt

Accuweather is right for Friday but Weekend is a wait and see. Kansas will get Tornado’s coming up

Josh
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Josh

Hey Gary when will the KC Metro have another Tornado Outbreak? Do you think an 03 outbreak is even possible again. It has been so long since the city had a true Severe Weather outbreak that I dont think it is possible any more. Tonganoxie Split?

Bob
Guest
Bob

“Hey Gary when will the KC Metro have another Tornado Outbreak? ”

“Tonganoxie Split?”

I really can’t tell if this is satire or real. Just because I’m in a good mood today you get the Plus 1 merely because this can’t be real and by default must be satire.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Looks like we might have to bring back the wondrous Northland Split!

January 12 2019 never forget

(lol)

Bob
Guest
Bob

Every time someone tries to legitimize the Tongie Split, I wanna drive them to Tonganoxie (most have never been) and point out the 300 foot hill that supposedly splits a part 30,000 foot thunderstorms.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Anything is Possible!!!!

Josh
Guest
Josh

Minus 3!!!! I’m a terrible person!

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

There is a risk area highlighted for severe weather every day on the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) day four through eight outlook. This is the first time that has happened since that SPC product became operational in 2007, according to Harold Brooks, a senior scientist of the Forecast Research and Development Division at the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What is driving this? Maybe they just decided to start using it? I mean models this morning – yeah severe weather risks are there but TBH they didn’t even use this for the 4/27/11 outbreak. Which begs one to wonder, what use is forecasting that far out when so many factors are determined the day of the outbreak? I mean yeah you could put it out there that every storm this time of year could have a 35% chance of producing severe weather. Doesn’t mean it’s necessarily a violent tornado outbreak, or any tornadoes – they could put that out… Read more »

mizzou_fan87
Guest

That must be from yesterday, because there’s no highlight for Day 8 as of today.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

its from accuweather

mizzou_fan87
Guest

Wasn’t accuweather also the same site that said OK and KS were gonna have like a crap ton of tornadoes this spring?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

U models R crazy! 06z GFS FV3 now has thunderstorms erupting at 6 AM Monday Morning over Oklahoma. If this happens the whole notion of this wave of energy producing a major tornado outbreak is in flux – heavy AM thunderstorms forming at 6 AM and reaching Kansas City around 12:30 PM to 1 PM Monday Afternoon will make it impossible for our atmosphere to destablize alot Monday. But storms would fire east of KC along I-44 around and up to St Louis and Central IL. At hour 162 / 6 PM WED / it shows us under the cold… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Of course nobody really knows….. they are reacting to the possibilities and the overall setups. You might want to pay attention when seasoned storm chasers are getting amped over a setup. They aren’t rookies, and can usually read a storm Alot better than average weather nerd. Of course severe setups are fickle, maybe they happen and maybe they don’t, that’s always the case. You are buying the model output as gospel right now, the morning setup might not exist at all!
Better to spread the word to general public that the potential is there

Bob
Guest
Bob

“heavy AM thunderstorms forming at 6 AM and reaching Kansas City around 12:30 PM to 1 PM Monday Afternoon will make it impossible for our atmosphere to destablize alot Monday.”

Completely agree with this as the main possibility. Which, is good. This is just how it works here.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Do you expect any impacts from storms on Saturday evening that would affect the Sporting KC game at 7:30. It’s my daughters first MLS game in person. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Terry
Guest
Terry

So Gary you dont think will have Any severe weather here on Saturday Saturday night? Where is it still too early to know? Because we know how models can be?

matt
Guest
matt

Also have Fall time for Bad Weather. Counties like Douglas,Franklin have been under a Tornado Watch. We will have bad storms coming up.

mizzou_fan87
Guest

The latest GFS model has all the heavy/severe stuff mainly south of here on Monday/Tuesday and has been pretty consistent with this.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary,

How does the weather look for Saturday’s Weston Wine Festival? Hoping there is not any rain to contend with.