The Next Two Weeks Will Be Quite Active In Tornado Alley

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Good morning bloggers,

Severe weather risks and flooding risks will be increasing again in the next seven days, and it will be quite active for the next two weeks.  The weather pattern is cycling with the LRC describing the order to what many think is just chaos. It is anything but chaos, as we have been sharing with you for two decades now.  If you just go back and look at the blog, you will find this part of the pattern approaching as being quite active.  It was more on the winter side in previous cycles, and this time it is going to be more like spring, which means an increasing risk of severe weather.  From the SPC this morning:  “An active stretch for severe weather will occur during the entire day 4 to 8 period, mainly over the central and southern plains“.

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This map, valid Saturday evening, shows the blocked up weather pattern forcing some rather fascinating things to happen near the surface.  This map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us valid 7 PM Saturday night. There is blocking in the form of upper level highs closing off over Canada north to near the North Pole.  This is resulting in forcing the jet stream to be much farther south than normal near the California coast.  There is a lead upper level storm that is modeled to be moving out into the plains Saturday night, and there is a ridge over the eastern states which will help warm them up significantly.

f5weather-29

What is this?  30″ of snow in mid to late May will be a very rare weather event for the Sierra Nevada. Oh, it snows in May and June up at higher elevations almost every year, but 30″ of snow, maybe 40″ of snow?  Now, that will be interesting to see happen.  And, look at what is forecast at lower elevations:

f5weather-28

This is the European Model, above, showing a precipitation total forecast for the next ten days.  Kansas City is in the 2 to 6 inch range with just as much forecast over California. The rainy season ends in April out west in most years, but this will be an incredibly wet weather pattern for California with the jet stream forecast to be forced farther south by the blocking.  And, look how wet it is forecast to be over Montana and the Dakota’s. Something to monitor closely is the amount of rain falling near the Missouri River upstream from Kansas City.  That is a lot of water predicted in these next ten days and the river will rise if this indeed does happen.

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The first severe weather risk will set up Friday into Saturday.  This map above shows one possible solution for Saturday. It is still too early to lay out a severe weather risk, but there will be one setting up over the central and southern plains, and this is just the lead storm. That energy over the Pacific will be heading out over the Rockies and plains states next week.

Today:

day1otlk_1200

The SPC put this little marginal risk for today.  There is a little warm front forming, and I need to do a bit more analysis to see if there is any chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon or evening. There is a weak disturbance moving overhead tonight.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation!  Have a great day!

Gary

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Moved to new blog*

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Moved?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Todays blog is over at kshb
Am I the only one not seeing it here ?

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

1 hour ago pea sized hail and 45/50 mph wind and over in 6/8 minutes at 22nd and 36 hwy in ST JOE MO

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

The storms that were approaching from the north are going poof! However, some of these packed a punch when they were active. May be a pre-cursor to what’s to come Saturday through Tuesday.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Lol, the FV3 modeling snow in Thunder Bay for the 28th. Models are great.

Johnny
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Johnny

Where’s thunder bay

Matt
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Matt

Near Canada.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Ontario, Canada. Northeast of Duluth MN.

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison
f00dl3
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f00dl3

Just 6 hours ago it showed that Monday. Now it shows it Tuesday. We expect it to be accurate when the timing is +/- 36 hours still?

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

When it comes to severe weather compared to snow storms, it seems to me that we can have more confidence because we aren’t quite focused as much on the details. With snow, people want more than just “we know we are going to have measurable snow” because people want to know how much snow… but with severe weather, it can be a little bit more broad. Saying somewhat confidently that we are going to get measurable snow 4-5 days before a winter storm, we can also say somewhat confidently that there is going to be a significant severe weather set… Read more »

Matt
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Matt

Weather channel showed on Weather Undeground tonight KC best chances Saturday and Monday. Sunday Morning leftovers Rain.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Storms at 9 AM are far less intense than storms at 4 PM though. Timing is everything for tornadoes.

Becca
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Becca

I am hearing words such as “historic” as describing what could begin this Friday through next Tuesday. Again, this is mainly coming from storm chasers. Sounds like Monday and Tuesday are rivaling that of May 2003 and April 2011. I was living in Chicago in 2011, but I definitely remember 2003! The SPC has never issued a 15% severe weather risk for five straight days on their outlook.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

really? where have you heard that? I want to go check it out.

Becca
Guest
Becca

Follow Mike Scantlin, Reed Timmer, Tornado Titans, Prairie Storm Chasers, Michael Ventrice…just a few.

Greenhead
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Greenhead

Reed timer is a fool

Mark
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Mark

How about Reed Timmer, though?

Becca
Guest
Becca

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmarshwx/status/1128305684003655682
As far as first time SPC issuing 5 straight days on their severe weather outlook.

mizzou_fan87
Guest
mizzou_fan87

Nothing too significant showing up for our area via the GFS for next Tuesday…but that could change.

Edit: Looks to maybe start out as supercells on Tuesday and then move towards our immediate south as a cluster. But this is just one model. Hopefully all the real nasty stuff stays south of the metro!

Becca
Guest
Becca

I don’t concentrate on the timing too much right now. Bottom line, there appears to be significant severe weather in or around our area beginning Saturday and it remaining quite active all week.

mizzou_fan87
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mizzou_fan87

We’re still seven days out from this “apparent” big storm. I get time of the year and everything and some people are itching and antsy to go out and chase, but I think throwing around words like “historic” is kind of foolish. So much can change between now and even tomorrow.

Matt
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Matt

Even 35% percent out.

mizzou_fan87
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mizzou_fan87

Yep. Because guess what? That can change. Remember the storm that was supposed to produce a severe weather outbreak a couple weeks back? It didn’t really do much.

blue flash
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blue flash

What about the thunderstorm threat for this afternoon? A lot of talk about it on the NWS discussion but I don’t see anything remotely resembling development on the satellite images.

Matt
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Matt

Yes theirs some Warnings right know.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Westbound K10 & Ridgeview fatality accident probably cause of the construction backups and people not paying attention.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Well this doesn’t bode well for our planet. It was 84 degrees near the Arctic Ocean this last weekend. Also, CO2 levels reached an all time new high of 415.26 ppm. “Carbon dioxide levels have risen by nearly 50 percent since the Industrial Revolution.” The extent of sea ice in the Arctic is near record lows. Sea ice is melting at a record pace. In the mean time, we have had record breaking rainfall events in some parts of the county and massive flooding. Snowfall continues out west and in the inter-mountain west, and now over New England. Sure hope… Read more »

Joshua
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Joshua

Spin Zone: Higher CO2 emissions lead to longer human life expectancy. Deaths from natural disasters are WAY down since industrial revolution right? What has led to longer life expectancy? The technology/modern medicines that allow for longer life expectancy have CONTRIBUTED to CO2 emissions.

thetophat
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thetophat

Citing the WaPo isn’t a good thing……………just saying.

BigSteve
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BigSteve

Citing the WaPo is a good thing, unless you’re a partisan loon when it comes to scientific evidence.

Adam
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Adam

Partisan runs both ways

BigSteve
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BigSteve

Science is not partisan. It doesn’t care who you vote for.

Ben
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Ben

Citing the Washington Post is just fine, as long as the data cited is accurate. Is there a particular inaccuracy with this data that is bothering you?

matt
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matt

SPC for 4 thru 8 days out has 35 percent chance of Severe Weather on Friday.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I really second that about not taking much faith in the models this far out. We do know the plains will be active. We don’t know where the active weather will be each day. Look at Saturday for example – yesterday GFS FV3 showed us being under the gun, now it looks the threat shifted further west Saturday night into Sunday. Monday looked like the primary threat this morning on the FV3 and GFS models, with GFS normal being south of KC for biggest severe and FV3 having biggest severe out west. Now the FV3 shows everything north over NW/NC… Read more »

Justin
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Justin

Will KCI hit 100 degrees this summer?

mizzou_fan87
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mizzou_fan87

Dear god I hope not, but I’m sure we probably will a couple of times, especially once July rolled around.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

If it does happen it will likely be between June 8 area and July 27 area. Warm cycle.

Bob
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Bob

You mean during the summer?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

100 is possible in this climate from late May to late September. This LRC’s pattern of “odd cycles cold, even cycles warm” will likely prevent them in May, August, and September. (cycle 5 and cycle 7).

That’s what I mean.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Thing I forgot to add. July 1-4 area or July 10-15 area. That’s my prediction.

There should be cooler days in the gap between (5-9 July) and a precipitous drop after the second warm spell (like the two 50+ days February 13-14 followed by the high of 17 with snow on the 15th).

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I am going to say no for KCI as far as a temperature, but heat index yes. This LRC will remain wet and keep lawns green. That reduces the opportunity for us to hit 100. We went a long stretch without hitting it until last summer and we were in drought conditions to get there. With high humidity levels, that reduces the likelihood of 100 degrees even in the warm stretches of this LRC. Just my opinion.

DesertQueen
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DesertQueen

I’m okay with 100! Much preferred over cold.

thetophat
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thetophat

Shot in the dark……………….late June.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Yep

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

Hello, Gary!! What do you think of the 12z GFS? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2019051412&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

With moderate cape values and good shear this looks to be a lot of severe thunderstorms moving our way. I think we will be dealing with cloud cover from morning t-storms, though. This looks to be a potential moderate risk in southern to southeast Kansas and northern and northeast Oklahoma. Thoughts?

Hope you are doing well! I am looking forward to tracking these storms this week!!

Jack

Joe
Guest
Joe

Lessoned learned over the past year or two…never put much faith in any forecasting model > 3 days out.

Kathy
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Kathy

Took a trip to Lexington, MO this weekend and the first thing I noticed was the huge amount of flooding around the Missouri River. Highway 224 is closed because of the flooding. This is reminiscent of 1993, and I truly worry about the folks and farmers just east (and north) of here. No crops were in, and the bottoms were all lakes. If we get any more rain, I fear we may be looking at 1993 again…but I realize that this is a different pattern than 1993. I know the flooding issue has been discussed on the blog before, but… Read more »

Steve
Guest
Steve

93 was this time of year so far!!!

thetophat
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thetophat

The main difference between now and 26 years ago is it all started a lot earlier this year plus flooding is much more expansive especially on the Mississippi where warnings have literally gone all the way down to the Gulf coast. As has been pointed out before the REAL flooding rains of 1993 began mid-May and lasted until mid-July (believe the 17th was the one that prompted evacuations in Northtown and caused the MO to flood the area where I was working at the time, something NOBODY thought possible).

mizzou_fan87
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mizzou_fan87

Here’s to hoping we get more of a flooding risk than a severe weather risk.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

we’d rather severe weather than flooding because at least severe weather ends shortly. it does not go on for days

mizzou_fan87
Guest
mizzou_fan87

Eh, good point. But I’d still rather see flooding. I’m fine with severe weather as long as it’s not tornadoes and baseball size hail raining down on my car.

Mareina
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Mareina

I agree with Kaden, flooding doesn’t always end shortly.

Steve
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Steve

Insn’t 15 May thru 15 Jun our wettest time of year?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

BTW I just looked at something I haven’t looked at in a while: The drought monitor map. There’s almost no drought anywhere in the US right now!
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

DustinTheWind
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DustinTheWind

That’s incredible, given where we were at the end of last summer. I had completely forgotten about this map! Thanks for sharing.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

“The rainy season ends in April out west in most years”

Just a footnote: I lived in Seattle for some 25 years and Spokane for 3, and the farther north up the west coast you go, the earlier the wet season starts and the later it ends. I think April would be true for California, but farther up the west coast April is still somewhat moist, and also May to a lesser extent. Up in Washington state the dry season doesn’t really start until June.

Bentley
Guest

First!