A Warm Up Will Eventually Lead Into Increased Severe Weather Risks

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Good morning bloggers,

KCI Airport has now had 3.59″ of rain this month, and we are just getting to the part of the pattern that is more likely to produce the potential severe weather set-ups across traditional tornado alley.  The first strong set up for severe weather will most likely happen around Saturday.  We will go in-depth as it gets a bit closer.

Finally, a big warm-up:

namconus_T2m_us_40

It has been a cool first half of May, and this is about to change, and big time.  The map above shows a prediction of temperatures at 4 PM central time Tuesday.  The 80s will be surging north all the way to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  The humidity will be on the rise too, and then we will be setting the stage for some thunderstorms.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_11

As you cans see above, a rather big ridge is forming and moving out over the Rocky Mountains and out over the plains states this week. The models have been making horrible errors in showing some of these ridges growing and stopping the flow, or blocking the flow and it was causing panic in some storm chasers a few days ago. There is little chance of what they call “the ridge of death” as it causes severe weather season to go dormant. Well, in this year’s LRC, we know better, and…….

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny with a high near 67°.  Expect light winds and just a bit cool this afternoon.
  • Tonight:  There will be a light southeast breeze at around 5 mph. Low:  55°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with light winds.  It will be nearly perfect outside and comfortable with a high of 77°  There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
  • Wednesday:  After a possible early morning thunderstorm, expect mostly sunny and breezy conditions to develop.  It will be warmer with south winds 10-20 mph.  High:  83°
  • Thursday:  Mostly sunny and warmer.  South to southwest winds 10-25 mph.  High:  86°

The storm to watch this week:

This is one of many solutions valid at 7 PM Saturday evening.  The FV3-GFS is modeling a very strong surface cyclone over Kansas by Saturday evening:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23

If this is at all correct, and it fits the LRC better than the operational GFS model, then we will have the potential for significant severe weather over tornado alley by Friday or Saturday.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the LRC which describes the Order In Chaos, published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine.  If you have any questions, or would like to join the conversation, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the discussion.  We will be moderating the blog to make sure it is an enjoyable experience for everyone reading!

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

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Snow MiserBlue FlashTed in STJoeHeat MiserBecca Recent comment authors
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Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Fairly cool up here this morning 37°. Did not get that warm this afternoon 68°. I expect tomorrow morning will probably be 50° or cooler. Eventually it will warm up however I would like to see normal temperatures or above for two or three week. Just to see what they feel like! When we have them in the winter it was 45° because normal is 35°.

Becca
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Becca
Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I want snow.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Google street view now has some winter snow coverage around downtown Independence from February:
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.0937357,-94.4156124,3a,75y,222.88h,87.21t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s_WZ2nhMoGMiB4fJmqYzRBA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
Might be fun to try to figure out the date!

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Can’t tell the date, except it is very windy, flag is stretched out straight. And its Uptown Independence lol

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Sorry, I own this time of year icicle head.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I’m trying to steal your thunder. Sorry it’s my job.

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

We’ve had 2.73” of rain so far this month in Kirksville – and it was 36 F this morning!

craig
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craig
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craig

SEVERE WEATHER: the end of next week could be the start of one of the more active periods this generation of storm chasers will remember! Reminds me of early May 2003 and late season 2004 with day after day of tornado potential, ski-jump upper-level setups! Starting next Friday pic.twitter.com/NhU1iqA1Cm

— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) May 12, 2019

Becca
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Becca

This is what I referenced yesterday. He isn’t the only one thinking this.

Lainie
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Lainie

No storms on Wednesday please! Honor Flight of Kansas City has a flight going out early Wednesday morning and coming home that night!

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Most models showing the wet pattern shifting north, this contrasts significantly with the LRC forecast. I suspect the NOAA will drop the heavy precip chance from the area they had been advertising last week. I like that Gary is sticking to his guns, will be a true testament to the power of the LRC if the second half of the month is wetter than the first half, doesn’t seem possible right now.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Well late last Summer the areas that kept getting hammered were to our north too…

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I follow a couple AG related long range forecasters as well, they are also screaming severe weather chances and copious rainfall for entire plains region starting this weekend so they are now saying what Gary has been saying for along time. And with the SE high bringing up plenty of gulf moisture, and a near constant trough to the west ejecting pieces of energy, its a very wet pattern that will not end any time soon. Very little planting will be accomplished in the next few weeks, so Corn is in trouble until further notice. This rain is good for… Read more »

Three7s
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Three7s

Another Meteorologist from another network seems to think the main severe weather for this weekend will be in the western plains and we would just get the remnants from the action they get. I’m inclined to agree because that’s really how it’s been for us for several years. I can’t remember the last time the KC metro was the prime target for severe weather, not that it’s a bad thing.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Correct. Gary said traditional tornado alley. I think that is western /central KS. Not KC metro.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Finally a nice day Time to mow.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It was really foggy this morning.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

We had some heavy downpours yesterday off and on just north of Liberty. They reminded me of the type you would get in Florida where there was so much moisture in the atmosphere that it would dump rain for 20 minutes or so at a time. Needless to say, no mowing again and will likely not get to it until Friday. Hopefully it will be dry enough and can double/trip mow the forest. In Chicago this week, have a great week bloggers!

Mike h
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Mike h

What a nice spring, after last years cold/hot. My guess is a dull severe weather season for the metro. I wouldn’t have said that during the fall/winter. Seemed like it would be very active.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I’m thinking more “just rain” events than thunderstorm events this summer. Most likely time for a big heatwave is probably in the first few days of July – the return of the warmup that’s coming in the next few days.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

only takes 1 single bad setup and it can all change very quickly! I’m not sure severe weather season is done with us, not by a long shot. The end of May should feature our most violent setups once we get some hotter weather in play and more available CAPE.