The LRC describes the order in chaos! This graphic is from the article in the recent Meteorological International Technology Magazine which showcased the accurate predictions of Tropical Storm Gordon, Major Hurricanes Michael, Florence, and Harvey and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. In the article, the relationship between Super Storm Sandy and the El Reno and Moore, OK Tornado disasters of 2013 are also highlighted. These are just a few of the accurate predictions made by Weather2020, LLC over the past few years.
The coldest part of this year’s LRC:
The part of the pattern that produced the coldest air this season is cycling through right now. A brutally cold air mass developed in this part of the LRC in January. Chicago had one of the coldest days in its recorded history on January 30, 2019 when the high temperature was 10 degrees below zero, and the low temperature was 23 degrees below zero. The next day, on the last day of January it was 21 degrees below zero with a high of 1 degree. That was 98 days ago, and as many of you who have been following this blog know that 98 days is perfectly on cycle to return right now. Yesterday, it was 50 degrees in Chicago, well below the average high of 67 degrees.
The coldest temperature of this years pattern in Kansas City happened on January 30th, or exactly two cycles ago. And, right on schedule we have a cold front coming through tonight and Thursday with tomorrow likely to be way below average again. It was -6° in late January, and Thursday appears it will have a very cool May day with highs in the lower to middle 50s. The storm system responsible for this part of the pattern is going to split in half with part of the storm dropping southwest, and the other part moving out into the plains.
Today’s Weather Pattern
The storm impacting the plains this morning produced a huge area of rain and thunderstorms, some severe weather, flooding, and a developing cold air mass. As you can see above, the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us, shows a few important features that exist right now. There is a blocking upper high over southern Greenland, and is has forced a seasonal difference with this storm in the flow. A storm similar to this one existed in all previous cycles (we are currently in the fifth LRC cycle). This time, however, it is being forced out into the plains, and it is breaking into many pieces. The seasonal difference was predicted by the meteorologists at Weather2020 to produce severe weather this week and flooding, a prediction made weeks ago. Take a look at what happens next.
By early Thursday morning, the blocking high is breaking down, and the storm is now in at least four big pieces as shown above, and then look at what happens by Friday morning below:
By Friday, the blocking high has turned into a high amplitude ridge, and there is a second high amplitude ridge off the west coast extending over Alaska. A new storm develops over the southwest, and this storm needs to be watched closely for this weekend and next week as it will provide some weather forecast problems.
Severe Weather & Flooding Risk Today:
4:30 AM Radar:
This was the radar image from early this morning. There were thunderstorms active with lightning and very heavy rain moving into KC. Flooding is a threat in the usual spots this morning. KCI Airport has now had 1.93” of rain from this weeks storm with one more round of rain likely tonight. There is a slight risk of severe weather over a large area today, with an enhanced slight risk farther south.
And, here is the latest risk just out at 8 AM:
The huge area of rain last night has impacted the decision from the SPC, and as you can see, the risk of severe weather has been taken out for our entire area. I still say we need to monitor this closely, as we will get the sunshine and warmer air in here as a result of this.
Much colder air will arrive tonight in the wake of this lead system moving into the Great Lakes. Look at the snow over parts of Colorado that may sneak into western Kansas, and also over Minnesota. We are moving into mid-May and we are talking snow, and well of course we are as this is the coldest part of this years LRC:
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