A Cooler Stormy Pattern Continues

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Good morning,

Screen Shot 2019-04-28 at 5.05.06 PM

The LRC describes the order in chaos!  This graphic is from the article in the recent Meteorological International Technology Magazine which showcased the accurate predictions of Tropical Storm Gordon, Major Hurricanes Michael, Florence, and Harvey and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  In the article, the relationship between Super Storm Sandy and the El Reno and Moore, OK Tornado disasters of 2013 are also highlighted.  These are just a few of the accurate predictions made by Weather2020, LLC over the past few years.

The coldest part of this year’s LRC:

The part of the pattern that produced the coldest air this season is cycling through right now.  A brutally cold air mass developed in this part of the LRC in January.  Chicago had one of the coldest days in its recorded history on January 30, 2019 when the high temperature was 10 degrees below zero, and the low temperature was 23 degrees below zero.  The next day, on the last day of January it was 21 degrees below zero with a high of 1 degree.  That was 98 days ago, and as many of you who have been following this blog know that 98 days is perfectly on cycle to return right now.  Yesterday, it was 50 degrees in Chicago, well below the average high of 67 degrees.

The coldest temperature of this years pattern in Kansas City happened on January 30th, or exactly two cycles ago.  And, right on schedule we have a cold front coming through tonight and Thursday with tomorrow likely to be way below average again.  It was -6° in late January, and Thursday appears it will have a very cool May day with highs in the lower to middle 50s.  The storm system responsible for this part of the pattern is going to split in half with part of the storm dropping southwest, and the other part moving out into the plains.

Today’s Weather Pattern

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The storm impacting the plains this morning produced a huge area of rain and thunderstorms, some severe weather, flooding, and a developing cold air mass.  As  you can see above, the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us, shows a few important features that exist right now.  There is a blocking upper high over southern Greenland, and is has forced a seasonal difference with this storm in the flow.  A storm similar to this one existed in all previous cycles (we are currently in the fifth LRC cycle).  This time, however, it is being forced out into the plains, and it is breaking into many pieces. The seasonal difference was predicted by the meteorologists at Weather2020 to produce severe weather this week and flooding, a prediction made weeks ago. Take a look at what happens next.

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By early Thursday morning, the blocking high is breaking down, and the storm is now in at least four big pieces as shown above, and then look at what happens by Friday morning below:

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By Friday, the blocking high has turned into a high amplitude ridge, and there is a second high amplitude ridge off the west coast extending over Alaska.  A new storm develops over the southwest, and this storm needs to be watched closely for this weekend and next week as it will provide some weather forecast problems.

Severe Weather & Flooding Risk Today:

4:30 AM Radar:

Screen Shot 2019-05-08 at 4.24.38 AM

This was the radar image from early this morning. There were thunderstorms active with lightning and very heavy rain moving into KC.  Flooding is a threat in the usual spots this morning.  KCI Airport has now had 1.93” of rain from this weeks storm with one more round of rain likely tonight.  There is a slight risk of severe weather over a large area today, with an enhanced slight risk farther south.

day1otlk_1200

And, here is the latest risk just out at 8 AM:

day1otlk_1300

The huge area of rain last night has impacted the decision from the SPC, and as you can see, the risk of severe weather has been taken out for our entire area.  I still say we need to monitor this closely, as we will get the sunshine and warmer air in here as a result of this.

Much colder air will arrive tonight in the wake of this lead system moving into the Great Lakes. Look at the snow over parts of Colorado that may sneak into western Kansas, and also over Minnesota.  We are moving into mid-May and we are talking snow, and well of course we are as this is the coldest part of this years LRC:

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Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great day!

Gary

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f00dl3Blue FlashKstatermizzou_fan87Matt Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Interesting how 20 years after 5/3/99 the same general belt from the TX Panhandle to Oklahoma to Arkansas is having the majority of the severe weather this year. If we had global warming at the last 20 years’ alarmist rate, that would suggest the severe weather would have shifted further north as TX/OK/AR would now be a bit too warm for severe weather and instead have droughts every year as South Texas does.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Poof!

mizzou_fan87
Guest
mizzou_fan87

This storm wasn’t nearly as potent as what everyone was thinking. Even on Monday morning, the wording in Gary’s blog had be a little worried.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

Tell that to everyone dealing with all of this flooding. Severe weather was lacking but rainfall wasn’t for most areas.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary just said break out the heavy winter coat for tomorrow.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Storms are trying to get forming but I doubt anything severe would happen. Just some moderate to heavy rain out of that complex to the west of Topeka that’s inching closer to KC. 76 and 59 with little in the way of instability is pretty weak even for some small hail.

LenexaGirl
Guest
LenexaGirl

I don’t really think it’s going to rain that much

jeffnKs
Guest
jeffnKs

We have had since friday at my place 6 inches of rain and as i type this it just started raining hard again. and for the last 7 days I have had 8 inches and counting. I live in the NW part of town which had the least amount of rain. Major flooding going on down here in Wichita.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

NWS forecast discussion says there is an “agitated cumulus” ahead of the cold front. Heaven forbid we have some real angry clouds coming our way. Hopefully they will have time to calm down before they get here!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Well I think the question has been answered about whether there would be sufficient heating today for severe weather. Its feeling mighty warm and sultry out right now. 75 degrees here in Independence with a 60 degree dewpoint. Maybe we should not rule out severe weather?

Matt
Guest
Matt

I second that we should get Severe Weather even if it’s pop up ones.

mizzou_fan87
Guest
mizzou_fan87

I feel like you want severe weather regardless.

Matt
Guest
Matt

No but do like watching it on TV.

John
Guest
John

I don’t know every single one of your posts seems like you are hoping for severe weather. If you like watching it on tv why does it have to be a local channel. Every major city in the country when there is severe weather has live streaming now. I can go without the severe weather here it can stay in rural Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Does not need to have major impacts on peoples livelihoods around here though.

Blue flash
Guest
Blue flash

I think just about every person who visits this blog has mixed feelings about severe weather. We have a scientific interest in it, as well as a great appreciation for it. But we don’t want it hitting our house. Is it OK to be an enthusiast without wishing for the damage that results? There’s nothing we can do to prevent severe weather, so we might as well make the best of it.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

still just feels cloudy and cool here in Lawrence

John
Guest
John

I feel like 71 and overcast, with a dewpoint of 57 is not the right combination to get severe storms at least for my location. The instability for today was weak already and the sun never really broke all the way out up here by 152 Highway there were even occasional sprinkles this afternoon. That breeze feels dry and cool also. I’m not an expert or anything, but I just do not see any severe weather happening tonight, at least in my location. I don’t want it anyway so I am perfectly happy with just some regular old thunderstorms again.

Terry
Guest
Terry

It’s gotten warm and humid outside in KCK And the SPC has pull the plug early on the severe weather lol

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

Starting to clear here in downtown kck

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Gary,

Have you spoken with Reed Timmer about the LRC and how it can help predict severe weather outbreaks and can also assist him with his research? Some of his drone footage has been unbelievable. Thank you Sir.

craig
Guest
craig

Getting a pretty generous dose of sunshine here in Lenexa, at present.
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satellite/regional-visible/ussln

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

I-35 South into Oklahoma closed due to high water from Wellington to Ks/Okla state line.

Jason (Lawrence)
Guest
Jason (Lawrence)

Roads closed all over the state due to flooding. Getting ridiculous.

craig
Guest
craig

Bothe the NAM3km and the HRRR bring a pretty vigorous line of storms through here at about 9:00 pm tonight. We’ll see, I guess.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Look at the lake elevation at Lake Perry today – wow!

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
Tuttle Creek Reservoir is more than 44′ above normal pool level and still rising. It is predicted to be less than 16′ below the spillway (1136′) by tomorrow.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What happens when it hits the spillway – will that flood the lower Blue River?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

A lot hinges on the volume of water rushing through the spillway. The outflow from Tuttle Creek was cut to only 160 cfs on February 25th, and in recent weeks I’ve seen fishermen standing on sandbars in the middle of the river below the dam. The stretch of Blue below the dam isn’t very long before it flows into the Kaw (roughly 7 or 8 miles.) See page 35 in the linked PDF for details of the water flow in 1993. Page 68 shows pictures of the flooding downstream from the spillway in ’93. The 60,000 cfs torrent cut a… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This link to the Corps’ 3-day forecast for Kansas reservoirs shows Tuttle Creek will be 12′ 9″ below the spillway by Saturday.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary After the rain and storms last night storm and rain do you think SPS To pull the slight risk area out of our Viewing area do This has it even comes to earlier the decision With the Sun coming out even now at 9 o’clock in the morning. And youband we have to watch his very close

DustinTheWind
Guest
DustinTheWind

Looks like all the predictions are for the high to be around 70 today. I guess we’ll know by about 1 pm if that’s going to hold or not.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Two nights in a row here in Independence I recorded 0.9″ So I’m up to 6.6″ in the last ten days.

Sheryl
Guest
Sheryl

Gary, Do different parts of the country have different length of cycle?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Cold core upper level lows not producing the severe weather we thought they would but we are getting the rain for sure.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Wow the SPC just completely changed the day 1 risk and KC isn’t even in a marginal risk for severe weather today. Just thunderstorms it says
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

John
Guest
John

That is a good thing. I do not need severe weather. I can watch videos of severe weather from other places.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Shouldn’t be surprising at all for KC. This happens multiple times a year. Overnight storms fortunately sap the atmosphere and we can go about our day without worrying about severe weather.

matt
Guest
matt

But at 95th street and Nall Ave. area Sun trying to come out and clear and I second what Gary said we should moniter it and so should SPC if need to add area back in Slight Risk or higher Risk.

Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

Sun is starting to peek through in Prairie Village.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded 1.15″ of rain this morning up here in Maryville. With 2.59″ since May 1st. We’ve been pretty lucky. Counties to our west have got way more rain than us. We need Mother Nature to Dial up about ten days of dry weather! Have a great “Hump Day” Bloggers!
Michael

Jason (Lawrence)
Guest
Jason (Lawrence)

Gary,

Even up until last night, this weekend into next week was forecast to be sunny and nice except for a tiny chance of a shower on Saturday. Now this —– “A new storm develops over the southwest, and this storm needs to be watched closely for this weekend and next week as it will provide some weather forecast problems” What gives?

Mike h
Guest
Mike h

Finally in the right spot

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

for what?

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Precipitation

Matt
Guest
Matt

I would say it has stopped Rain at Lamar Ave and 1O1st in OP if it has it gives a enough dry time and for Sun to come out and get close to 80 degrees meaning more fuel for storms later today and that’s maybe why SPC is waiting to see if it needs to upgrade Risk in areas.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Someone sure loves his outbreaks.

matt
Guest
matt

I like it warm out and not cold

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

It’s amazing how consistent this years LRC has been. The Houston area got pounded yesterday. At some point, there were some 4” per hour rains. Better there than here.

CRD10
Guest
CRD10

I am in Houston on a business trip, I can confirm this. The rain here was intense. The streets basically turned into rivers, not sure I’ve seen anything like it in KC.