The Wet Pattern Continues

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Good morning bloggers,

The weather we experienced yesterday produced some rather great moments to see natural art in the sky.  KSHB-TV Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily snapped this picture from down west of Ottawa, KS late yesterday afternoon:

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The structure of this storm was similar to other weaker thunderstorms closer to KC as you can see below near Overland Park, KS:

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Look at all of those layers as this non severe thunderstorm tracked across areas of the KC metro.  And, then look at this incredible picture taken by Travis in Desoto, KS.  He tweeted this picture out capturing the double rainbow and lightning forking out across the sky:

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What is going on with this current pattern?  The weather pattern continues to cycle perfectly according to the LRC, and it is being influenced by some blocking that has developed in early May near Greenland.  There is an upper level storm near Yuma, AZ this morning, and this energy will be ejected out into the plains during the next two days:

1

As this storm ejects out, severe weather, bands of heavy thunderstorms, complexes of thunderstorms, and cold rain and snow will be forming over the plains and southern Rocky Mountains.  The risks of severe weather and the location of the highest flooding risks will still depend on how the surface pattern sets up.  The surface pattern has been influenced by all of the rain and thunderstorms and here was a quick analysis I plotted from 7:30 AM this morning:

surfa

The risk today is now upgraded to a moderate risk over the Texas Panhandle extending into western Oklahoma:

day1otlk_1200

Here in Kansas City, we will monitor where these thunderstorms develop today. Since tonights activity will be associated with that upper low kicking out, the thunderstorms will more likely hold together as they move into eastern Kansas later tonight into early Wednesday.  Wednesday’s risk of severe weather will then be influenced by how extensive the thunderstorms will be tonight into early in the day tomorrow.  Most of the models have KC in south winds on Wednesday afternoon with a dewpoint surge into the middle to upper 60s.  The front would then move across around 10 PM Wednesday evening, and we will have to watch this closely. Only one model, the NAM model does not do this, and this model shifts the winds to the northwest earlier on Wednesday.  Since it is the only model to do that, I lean against that solution.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms tapering off later this morning.  The chance of rain increases near sunset again.  High:  70°
  • Tonight:  Rain and thunderstorms developing west and moving in later tonight into early Wednesday:  Low:  61°
  • Wednesday-Wednesday night:  Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms.  A few severe thunderstorms are possible during the evening if that front lines up west of KC.  High:  74°
  • Thursday:  Mostly cloudy and much cooler with a chance of drizzle or showers.  High: 55°

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here,  Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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BrittanyMr. PeteMattHeat MiserCraig Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Here comes the rain, again! ☔️

Craig
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Craig
Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

That’s the most amazing close up lightening footage I’ve ever seen..wow!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Totally awesome! I watched that three times.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Whoa that’s nuts!!

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Storms down near Le Cygne don’t seem to be any closer than they were at 6:00.

Matt
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Matt

comment image?1557265554287 right know it shows clearing at KS/MO boarder.

Brittany
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Brittany

Meaning what…?

Matt
Guest
Matt

But Clouds never cleared in OP.

John
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John

Means that this person wants severe weather here for some reason. Maybe tomorrow evening for a couple of hours, but hopefully it stays well south and we just get the anvil showers and storms like tonight appears to be. I’m still not sure about the people on here hoping for severe weather I don’t know of anyone that wants to deal with that.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes I do like to watch cover on TV and was just posting Map showing trying to clear in Marginal Risk area but never did.

Brittany
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Brittany

I’ve never understood it, either. I get that some of it is fascinating but it’s also damaging. Tomorrow isn’t looking too bad. Hopefully it stays that way.

Bob
Guest
Bob

On the way off chance all that dies out before it gets here tonight/early tomorrow morning, tomorrow will be wild. Otherwise, tonight/early tomorrow morning a MCS, a lotta of rain and lightning and tomorrow will be much like today. Grey and boring. Which is fine with me. But it does seem to sliding more NNE than NE as I thought was supposed to happen. Maybe today’s dull weather has sapped it of its predicted potential for overnight rain. I’m an amateur. Just me spitballing. I’d bet this is the normal Western Kansas severe weather forms into flooding rains for us… Read more »

Bob
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Bob

Never mind. I just saw that development in SE KS coming our way on a bigger map. OH IT GONNA RAIN. Severe bad stuff should hopefully (I’m an amateur) hopefully be diminished.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Appears severe threat is diminishing for tomorrow, due to another significant MCS will slide through overnight. Looks like that will eat up most of the convective potential for the afternoon ( per latest models ) , leaving a very cool rainy morning. Morning storms are a saving grace for many otherwise ominous setups, another bullet dodged (maybe lol)

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

Good, don’t want it to hail on my new car.

Matt
Guest
Matt

The severe storm risk will slowly march eastward at midweek, targeting the I-35 corridor, mainly between I-10 and I-70. “The severe weather threat on both Wednesday and Thursday will shift away from the wide-open spaces of the High Plains to the more heavily populated areas on the lower Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio valleys,” Sosnowski said. San Antonio; Dallas; Oklahoma City; Kansas City, Missouri; and Little Rock, Arkansas; are among the larger metro areas that will be at risk for damaging storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wed Severe 3 pm Similar to Tuesday, all modes of severe weather… Read more »

Matt
Guest
Matt

From Accuweather today The severe storm risk will slowly march eastward at midweek, targeting the I-35 corridor, mainly between I-10 and I-70. “The severe weather threat on both Wednesday and Thursday will shift away from the wide-open spaces of the High Plains to the more heavily populated areas on the lower Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio valleys,” Sosnowski said. San Antonio; Dallas; Oklahoma City; Kansas City, Missouri; and Little Rock, Arkansas; are among the larger metro areas that will be at risk for damaging storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wed Severe 3 pm Similar to Tuesday, all modes… Read more »

jeffnKs
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jeffnKs

We have 2 inches of rain down here in Wichita. As im typing this its thundering outside and starting to rain again. we had 6 inches of rain so far in may at my place.

Dan M
Guest

With this wet pattern expected to continue for May, based on the LRC, what is the early forecast for Memorial Day weekend?

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Outside of over the weekend not much rain up here. Photos are beautiful. River is on the rise from the rain in Nebraska and eastern Iowa.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Remind me again what makes a storm severe. Last evening, the northland NE of 152/169 had 20-30 minutes of sustained 50mph winds. Lots of heavy rain and pea sized hail. Serious lightning and a rumble of thunder that wouldn’t stop the duration of the storm. Some damage too. Tree limbs down, some roofs even lost shingles.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

That is an incredible photo of the rainbow and lightning together.
Received just close to an inch of rain last night and this morning in NW Olathe.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Had 1.7 inches of needed rain here in RP county with a lot of hail. Most was marble size but some was quarter size. Not much corn up yet so that was good. Looks like quite a bit more rain to come too.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Me and my cat had a hard time sleeping last night. Lots of loud rumbling thunder!

Ross (N. Overland Park)
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Ross (N. Overland Park)

We use a Marpac Dohm Classic White Noise Machine. It helps cancel out some of the loud storms. I slept great last night. Might be worth checking out.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I use white noise machines of various kinds as well, but some of those thunder booms are so loud and shake my house so much that no noise machine could possibly drown out the rumble.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

2.25″ at Farm in NW Vernon Co
With this rain Pryor Creek has been out or bank full 10+ times this year, last year it got out Only 1 time! Water gap fences are going out left and right

Jason (Lawrence)
Guest
Jason (Lawrence)

Sure hope that nice 3 day stretch over the weekend holds true. Could stand to dry out just a little.

Roger
Guest
Roger

5.35 inches in Chanute, KS

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

We got 1.04” of rain here in Kirksville.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

1.32″ from the evening and night storms at KCI.

We are now one week into May…and 6 of 7 days have recorded at least a trace of precipitation!

Oh also, for those uncertain of exactly where in the pattern we are: The cooler weather on Thursday and Friday is the late January cold blast, which also showed up around the vernal equinox (though, thanks to it being a “warm cycle,” it was rather weak then!)

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Those are some really cool pics!

I had a great lighting bolt show to the south out my window last night.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

That was a heck of storm last night. Great shelf cloud and some intense rain and wind for about 20 minutes. The lightning was amazing. The thunder was a constant rumble. Today will be milder here from a severe weather standpoint, and all eyes will turn to the Texas Panhandle region as there looks to be a great chance for tornadoes. Fortunate to be working from home today and tomorrow to watch it all unfold. Then I will pay attention to tomorrow for our area to have additional severe weather opportunities. Hoping the extended is correct that we may hit… Read more »