Severe Weather & Flooding Risks The Next Three Days

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Good morning bloggers,

An active weather pattern continues with the risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding increasing the next three days.  The set up for Wednesday is the most menacing at the moment, and as usual the thunderstorms that form the next couple of days will likely influence where the risks will be located.  Flooding is also a rather significant risk and there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for tonight.

2

There is a stalled front currently located near the Iowa/Missouri and the Nebraska/Kansas borders.  This front is barely moving and will be the likely focus to where thunderstorms form later this afternoon and evening. As you can see above, this front is being modeled to be located north and west of KC, and this is in a position that will place the KC metro area in the Flash Flooding risk for later tonight.  1″ to 5″ of rain is likely tonight into Tuesday, and then an additional 1″ to 5″ of rain is possible on Wednesday with the main storm system.  This map below shows the RGEM rainfall prediction for the lead system, ahead of the main storm:

rgem_apcpn_scus_48

The pink to purple shade shows the 2″ to 5″ potential centered near KC.  There are severe weather risks as well:

day1otlk_1200

Tonight’s risk is shown above, and the risk for Tuesday shifts south and west on Tuesday:

day2otlk_0600

The more significant risk is most likely on Wednesday. This is when there may be the set up for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms.  The enhanced slight risk will potentially end up farther north and closer to KC depending on the earlier thunderstorms on Wednesday morning.

day3otlk_0730

The enhanced slight risk shown above will likely be increased to a moderate risk by Wednesday.  Here is the surface set up:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11

The set up shown above, is one that seems to be unaffected by morning thunderstorms.  As we often experience near Kansas City, the morning thunderstorms often change everything and risks that look significant change very fast. So, we will be monitoring this closely.  The models have been trending in the direction of the above solution, and if this is close to being accurate, this is a rather impressive surface set up for significant severe weather over parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.  The storm in the upper levels is looking like it is strong enough to force the stronger surface low as shown.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_8

We will discuss this Wednesday set up a bit more tomorrow.  Let’s monitor today’s front and thunderstorm development first.  The thunderstorms that initially form this evening will have the best potential to be strong to severe, and then we will be looking at a large complex of thunderstorms evolving leading to the heavy rain event overnight.

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here,  Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

 

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Brittany
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Brittany

Checked SPC’s website this morning and was kind of surprised at the “moderate” risk issued for today and also that they pushed the “enhanced” risk way down south for tomorrow. Fine by me, though! Checked the GFS, HRRR, and NAM and all of them have more activity to the south as well.

John
Guest
John

1.84″ of rain overnight here in far northern kc.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

0.9″ overnight in Independence.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Moderate Risk down South today and Enhanced Risk just in LA tomorrow at moment and we are on the outskirts of Slight Risk but still in it.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Looks like there is a MCV just west of Great Bend, KS. Another just SE of Colby, KS.

Kstater
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Kstater

Radar now is insane. Almost the whole state of KS is getting heavy rain

Brittany
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Brittany

Lol I woke up randomly at 2:37 this morning and checked my app and noticed there was like, a freaking deluge of water covering the whole state of Kansas. I smirked then fell back asleep LOL.

Roger
Guest
Roger

4.65 inches of rain has now fallen in Chanute, KS. 2.80 inches fell in 1 hour.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

We got some moderate rain in PVKS tonight. Some lightening and thunder. No hail thankfully.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

My cat likes thunderstorms. She loves sitting on her perch looking out an open window when there’s one passing through, and sometimes she even likes to go out on my back steps, if the spot beneath the overhead awning is dry enough.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

1.44 so far off 119th and K-7 with rain still falling.

2Doghouse
Guest
2Doghouse

1.5” in the gauge in the last hour out in west olathe

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Absolute deluge coming down right now in Spring Hill. Rainfall rates have got to be at least 2 inches/hour.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Nasty looking line of storms coming into the city now…I’m in Independence so they’re heading my way. Ah! I guess they’re not at a severe level, though. I got a message from my Storm Shield app that said “nickel size hail and gusts of 50 mph”.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Very weak dying storms

John
Guest
John

Well that was an impressive storm that moved through up here off 152 Highway in the last half hour. Feels like it came out of nowhere because there was no thunder and lightning and then all of a sudden the wind was blowing the rain sideways. Nothing severe but a good thunderstorm. Appears to be done raining for now. More rain forming to the NW, but the storms west of here appear to be diving SE rather quickly.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Storm seems to be moving almost exactly due east. Hopefully that hook-like thing near Ottawa won’t creep up near us.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

That cell between Ottawa and Emporia is showing some rotation and seems to have a hook out ahead of it. It looks like that storm and the ones just west of it are the most likely to be severe tonight.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

This area of storms is also more expansive than what the models have been showing, which could make a difference on how much rain we get through the rest of the night.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Ominous clouds to the north in Parkville.

Guido
Guest
Guido

Initial line is looking like it might be a bust for the immediate metro on radar

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Tornado Watch for Franklin/Douglas Counties, and STW for most of NE Kansas except for Nemaha, Brown, and Marshal. I bet that Miami and Linn will eventually get added to the STW, maybe even the Tornado Watch. Could get interesting.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Like in Lyon Country Baseball size Hail and 70 Miles Winds but no Tornado Warning.

Matt
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Matt

Don’t know why Johnson County is under STW and Douglas Country the Country before it is under Tornado Watch and wait intill other parts of Eastern KS like Miami Country get under maybe Tornado Watch.

John
Guest
John

I will take some regular thunderstorms any day, but the severe stuff can stay away. Who wants to deal with hail damage, or wind damage, or destroyed property from a tornado? Sure I like all kinds of weather, but could go without the severe weather.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Agreed. I’ll take some good, loud thunderstorms but anything that threatens to damage someone’s property or hurt people is something that can stay FAR AWAY from me. I like tornadoes, but only if they’re in the middle of a field, away from everything.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Everyone keep an eye to the sky and on the news. Could have some nasty storms this evening. IMO after seeing last night, all modes of severe weather are on the table. Couldn’t believe the rotation that storm had from Great Bend to around Haven last night. The hook echo was signature of a tornado! Only thing it luckily didn’t have was a debris ball because it went over open ground!

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

NWS in Topeka’s short term forecast used the word strong tornados possible for a narrow area from about salina to manhattan to just NW of topeka tonight. Once they start using those words it’s time to take it seriously.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater
Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

We’re doomed. Head for the hills.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I would prefer snow.

Brittany
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Brittany

Me too. I’d rather have a blizzard than any severe weather.

Matt
Guest
Matt

80 Miles per hour Winds out their and no Tornado Warning and could be Damage to Mobile Homes,Cars.

Logan
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Logan

Tuttle Creek Lake continues to go up and up and up. Is there any concern of Manhattan experiencing some serious flooding with all this rain we’ve been getting? I haven’t been able to find any solid predictions or outlooks with this kind of stuff and I’d like to know what everyone has been thinking. As of 2:00 PM the lake was at 1,116.72 ft which is the third highest the lake has ever been, and the Big Blue River is still incredibly swollen as well. What’s the probability of this becoming an issue?

Mark
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Mark

Could be ’93 all over again. I heard that back then, more water was coming in than they could let out.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’d say there are definitely concerns for sure.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Gary are you still going with the areas you plotted the other day in those 2 maps? ( the black dashes)
I can’t get back to those maps for some reason

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

stl78 must be losing his mind.
comment image

Tilt 1
Guest
Tilt 1

Plenty of sunshine. Is there any cap in place?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Haven’t from any Media Outlets about a Cap out their.

jeffnKs
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jeffnKs

We had alot of hail that cover ground down here last night and a tornado warning for the city of Wichita which is rare. I got over a inch and half of rain in a short time as well. Was a active evening down this way.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Car thermometer says 75 and nothing but sun today in Lansing. Should help with storms later this afternoon.

Matt
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Matt
Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

The rain seems to be less up north which should help the Missouri River stay down.

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

Will there be an issue with the cap on Wednesday? A lot of the models do not have a lot when it comes to storm development in the warm sector.

Matt
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Matt

Then No.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Then no? I am asking if that is why the models could be showing not a lot of storm development…

Matt
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Matt

Per Mark Elliott Morning Storms could effect later day Storms down South.

Spooky
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Spooky

Good call early on the May flooding Gary. You nailed it.

1993 was a completely different set up than what is being experienced right now. We were stuck with a large high in the SE and we were on the wrap around train.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

It is (pardon the phrase) the same but different. The commonality is the persistent western trough that dug in to our north/northwest in 1993. I still think flooding this summer will be at least 1993 level if not well above in some locales (something I am definitely NOT rooting for).

John
Guest
John

So the EOI is good for lunch time today?

CaptainKU
Guest
CaptainKU

Perry and Clinton lake might get to record levels if this rain keeps up. With the Missouri rive as high as it is they have not been able to release any of the water from the recent storms.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The water levels on Clinton & Perry are nothing compared to Tuttle Creek, which is nearly 42′ above normal pool level. In ’93 the inflow into Tuttle Creek spiked to 95,000 cfs, which made the water level climb 41′ in 20 days (from June 30th to July 19th) and the resulting deluge carved a canyon below the spillway. The water level on Tuttle Creek was only 1095′ on June 30, 1993, and it is currently 1116.72′.
The Big Blue River is the Kaw’s main tributary.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Perry is already 16 feet above pool.

craig
Guest
craig

And man oh man….IF the LRC is a real thing…and I’m quite certain that it is…I’m getting quite concerned that the mid-May through late June time frame is going to be pretty nasty in terms of severe weather and tornadoes.
If the LRC can produce a system that creates this type of storm with 75 degree temps and 50+ dewpoints, what’s going to happen the next time through with 85 degree temps and 70+ dewpoints???
Lincoln, NE yesterday:
comment image

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

No substantial tornadoes were reported yesterday. Some of those storms looked intense, but nothing too out of the ordinary for this time of year.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

That area could be in the initiation zone again tonight. If that shifts south look out here…………

Matt
Guest
Matt
Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.weather.gov/top/weatherstory Orange Shade area Tornado’s near Topeka.

Matt
Guest
Matt

But wasn’t a Tornado.

Turd Ferguson
Guest
Turd Ferguson

Yes it was . Confirmed f2 touched down

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

That just looks eerie.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

That looks so awesome and viscous at the same time!!

craig
Guest
craig
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

wow, those are nasty storms

Matt
Guest
Matt
KSUstudent
Guest
KSUstudent

Wow, fascinating pattern we are experiencing!
On the GFS model, with the drawn dotted lines, it seems to show the triple point over center Kansas on Wednesday. From my knowledge the most significant risk for severe weather is usually centered on, or just east of, the triple point, with a lesser risk south, along the dry line. Based on that assumption, wouldn’t ,then, the highest risk on Wednesday be somewhere around Salina to Topeka? Or is that the risk area you mentioned would be dampened by morning thunderstorms?
Thank You

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd_b&rh=2019050612&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

I am seeing that here as well… you can see dryline near Wichita with upper 60’s dewpoints streaming up our way so wouldn’t the moderate risk be between an area from Wichita to Salina to Topeka to Fort Scott?

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Starting to build an arc I may get it done by the end of the day, have a good day bloggers!!

Lainie
Guest
Lainie

I’ll start gathering the animals!

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

you are not noah

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

How do you know he isn’t Noah?

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Don’t forget to put two of each creature onboard. That includes two Misers.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I concur!

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded .33″ of rain overnight in Maryville. One county to the West had way more than us! Need the severe weather to not happen! Bad for everyone. Have a great Monday Bloggers!
Michael

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Last night was so odd – the radar was blooming with moisture all over the place and then I got nothing measurable here in Prairie Village. Kinda glad I am going to make one more run at the lawn mower this afternoon before the real stuff hits.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

….and the “second have of May will be much wetter than the first half”…..this sounds like trouble, big time flooding, Tuttle puddle is nearing its overflow limit as is. Gary have you compared this weather season to 1993, any similarities?

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary,

What do you forsee for the rest of the month. You have stated that the this month could be rather wet. Do you have any model that shows what is in store for the rest of the month for the predicted precipitation? Does the summer look to be active as well or will we be looking at a hot dry stretch?

Jim
Guest
Jim

Is flooding the main risk? Are hail and tornados a risk as well?

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

yes all forms of severe weather are possible.

Matt
Guest
Matt

At the moment 1 or 2 Isolated Tornado’s.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

low chances though…tornados the lowest

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

low chances

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

its too early to say anything

Matt
Guest
Matt

I second that and SPC still might post more updates later today if they see changes and because near 80 degrees and Dryline some where. Also Whictia was under a Tonado Warning yesterday but not have done any damage.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

I agree with you. I think the threat of tornadoes today is very limited.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Matt
Guest
Matt

https://m.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/photos/a.129569323764386/2109418079112824/?type=3&source=48&ref=story_permalink and says all types could happen including Tornado’s and not Isolated ones. Tornado Watch maybe.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

you mean like ef1 or higher

Matt
Guest
Matt

Nobody has predicted yet EF scale for today because no Watches out yet.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

with the fccebook you posted

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Many of the models I’ve been watching for Wednesday have been insinuating that the storms that form will form way out west and then ride in to KC…which makes me think (or at least hope) that we’ll be dealing with linear/a cluster of storms instead of just singular cells. Hope the models continue to trend this way.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes Fort Scott/Pittsburg under Enhaced Risk and up what Gary’s thinking Enhanced Risk gets expanded in KS,MO/Arkansas get in it and Moderate Risk parts of Texas/LA/Southern OK/Arkansas.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

I cant go outside, i want t chase but im not old enough. any ideas?

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

update:to

Matt
Guest
Matt