Good morning bloggers,
An active weather pattern continues with the risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding increasing the next three days. The set up for Wednesday is the most menacing at the moment, and as usual the thunderstorms that form the next couple of days will likely influence where the risks will be located. Flooding is also a rather significant risk and there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for tonight.
There is a stalled front currently located near the Iowa/Missouri and the Nebraska/Kansas borders. This front is barely moving and will be the likely focus to where thunderstorms form later this afternoon and evening. As you can see above, this front is being modeled to be located north and west of KC, and this is in a position that will place the KC metro area in the Flash Flooding risk for later tonight. 1″ to 5″ of rain is likely tonight into Tuesday, and then an additional 1″ to 5″ of rain is possible on Wednesday with the main storm system. This map below shows the RGEM rainfall prediction for the lead system, ahead of the main storm:
The pink to purple shade shows the 2″ to 5″ potential centered near KC. There are severe weather risks as well:
Tonight’s risk is shown above, and the risk for Tuesday shifts south and west on Tuesday:
The more significant risk is most likely on Wednesday. This is when there may be the set up for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. The enhanced slight risk will potentially end up farther north and closer to KC depending on the earlier thunderstorms on Wednesday morning.
The enhanced slight risk shown above will likely be increased to a moderate risk by Wednesday. Here is the surface set up:
The set up shown above, is one that seems to be unaffected by morning thunderstorms. As we often experience near Kansas City, the morning thunderstorms often change everything and risks that look significant change very fast. So, we will be monitoring this closely. The models have been trending in the direction of the above solution, and if this is close to being accurate, this is a rather impressive surface set up for significant severe weather over parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. The storm in the upper levels is looking like it is strong enough to force the stronger surface low as shown.
We will discuss this Wednesday set up a bit more tomorrow. Let’s monitor today’s front and thunderstorm development first. The thunderstorms that initially form this evening will have the best potential to be strong to severe, and then we will be looking at a large complex of thunderstorms evolving leading to the heavy rain event overnight.
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