Good Sunday bloggers,
We are tracking upper level disturbances today and tonight. Then, we are tracking a cold front, series of disturbances and a main storm system Monday through Thursday. These weather features will combine to bring our area a second straight week of active weather. Flash flooding will be the main threat with some severe weather possible as well.
SUNDAY: There is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as weak disturbances drift across the Plains. Highs will be 70°-75°. Overall, it will be a nice Spring day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Another disturbance will track in from the west-northwest and this will bring a bigger area of rain and thunderstorms. This round may track just west, but it certainly has a chance to cover all areas as Gulf of Mexico moisture increases overnight. If you plan to head to the Sporting KC match that starts at 8 PM, the weather looks good. The rain should hold off until after 9-10 PM.
MONDAY: The round of rain and thunderstorms from later tonight will exit early Monday. The rest of Monday will be mostly dry until later in the afternoon and evening. It is at this time when a slow-moving cold front arrives from the northwest. This front will sag slowly south as a series of upper level disturbances track along it from the west and southwest. This is a recipe for several rounds of rain and thunderstorms Monday night. Highs will be in the low 70s.
TUESDAY MORNING: The front will be sagging south with more rain and thunderstorms along, ahead and behind the front. Lows will be in the 50s.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: The front stalls to our south, putting our region in the colder air. So, highs may get stuck in the 50s. This keeps the severe weather threat low with the flash flooding threat high. More rounds of rain and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night as more disturbances track along the front.
WEDNESDAY: A main storm system will come out of the southwest USA. This will generate many areas of rain and thunderstorms. This is going to cause a high flash flood threat. What about severe weather? This will depend on where the warmer air is located. Right now it looks like southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, south. We will have to watch this closely.
THURSDAY: The main storm pulls away and any rain should exit early with highs in the 50s, maybe even 40s. Friday into next weekend look drier with highs in the 60s and 70s.
RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEK: 1″ to 5″ of rain is likely over the middle of the USA. May and June are the wettest months of the year, so having a wet week is not unusual. What makes this different is that this wet week has been preceded by countless wet weeks and the rivers are over flood stage with a saturated ground.
Our viewing area is looking at a widespread 2″ to 4″ of rain. A few locations may see 4″ to 6″ of rain if training echoes (thunderstorms repeating over the same location) set up in a particular area. You can get rainfall rates of 1″ to 2″ per hour in the thunderstorms.
“TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” It only takes 6 inches of flowing water to float and SUV.
It’s Cinco de Mayo, please don’t drink and drive.
Have a great and safe week ahead.