A Second Straight Active Week of Weather

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Good Sunday bloggers,

We are tracking upper level disturbances today and tonight. Then, we are tracking a cold front, series of disturbances and a main storm system Monday through Thursday. These weather features will combine to bring our area a second straight week of active weather. Flash flooding will be the main threat with some severe weather possible as well.

SUNDAY: There is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as weak disturbances drift across the Plains. Highs will be 70°-75°. Overall, it will be a nice Spring day.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: Another disturbance will track in from the west-northwest and this will bring a bigger area of rain and thunderstorms. This round may track just west, but it certainly has a chance to cover all areas as Gulf of Mexico moisture increases overnight. If you plan to head to the Sporting KC match that starts at 8 PM, the weather looks good. The rain should hold off until after 9-10 PM.

2

MONDAY: The round of rain and thunderstorms from later tonight will exit early Monday. The rest of Monday will be mostly dry until later in the afternoon and evening. It is at this time when a slow-moving cold front arrives from the northwest. This front will sag slowly south as a series of upper level disturbances track along it from the west and southwest. This is a recipe for several rounds of rain and thunderstorms Monday night. Highs will be in the low 70s.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The front will be sagging south with more rain and thunderstorms along, ahead and behind the front. Lows will be in the 50s.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: The front stalls to our south, putting our region in the colder air. So, highs may get stuck in the 50s. This keeps the severe weather threat low with the flash flooding threat high. More rounds of rain and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night as more disturbances track along the front.

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WEDNESDAY: A main storm system will come out of the southwest USA. This will generate many areas of rain and thunderstorms. This is going to cause a high flash flood threat. What about severe weather? This will depend on where the warmer air is located. Right now it looks like southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, south. We will have to watch this closely.

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THURSDAY: The main storm pulls away and any rain should exit early with highs in the 50s, maybe even 40s. Friday into next weekend look drier with highs in the 60s and 70s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEK: 1″ to 5″ of rain is likely over the middle of the USA. May and June are the wettest months of the year, so having a wet week is not unusual. What makes this different is that this wet week has been preceded by countless wet weeks and the rivers are over flood stage with a saturated ground.

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Our viewing area is looking at a widespread 2″ to 4″ of rain. A few locations may see 4″ to 6″ of rain if training echoes (thunderstorms repeating over the same location) set up in a particular area. You can get rainfall rates of 1″ to 2″ per hour in the thunderstorms.

“TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” It only takes 6 inches of flowing water to float and SUV.

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It’s Cinco de Mayo, please don’t drink and drive.

Have a great and safe week ahead.

Jeff Penner

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BrittanyMattf00dl3Tim in Lone JackBlue Flash Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Looks like the severe threat his shifted a lot further south than what Gary’s map showed last week. Cold air still winning out it appears?

That being said – GFS shows us having 3-6″ of rain again this week now.

Matt
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Matt

Under Slght Risk today and should start about 5pm Eastern KS. Also Slight Risk at moment Wednesday and Marginal tomorrow. Enhanced Risk just to the South of KS on Wednesday.

Brittany
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Brittany

HRRR doesn’t have anything making it to KC until around 10. Maybe it starts earlier way out west. Also, the enhanced risk isn’t that close to KC on Wednesday.

Matt
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Matt

That’s why I said the state just below Kansas and that can change before Wednesday same with today’s Risk later in the day. H. Outlook for Overland Park says for today starting across Eastern KS the Severe Storms 5pm.

Brittany
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Brittany

Well, let’s hope nothing shifts anywhere closer to us. I’ve been watching the GFS/NAM and every model I’ve seen has been showing (bigger) storms south of KC. As for the weather tonight, I don’t think anything will hit the metro until later this evening. I hope we don’t get any bad severe weather. We don’t want it!

L.B
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L.B

so once spring floods away what are we looking at?

Terry
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Terry

Look at that bow echo coming down from the North move in southeastwards KC metro area.

Brittany
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Brittany

It’s still 1.5-2 hours away. It should weaken by then.

John
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John

It is weakening quickly none of those storms are even severe anymore. Looks like just a overnight period with lot of thunder to wake me up.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Yes, the gust front is way outrunning the convection. That pretty well dooms it by the time it gets here.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Wichita under Tornado Waring.

Troy
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Troy

Storms moving SE out of Nebraska produced an 87 mph wind gust at the Lincoln, NE airport. Also tennis ball size hail in the storms around Hastings.

Greenhead
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Greenhead

Man look at the radar out west two tornadoes confirmed on ground one by post TX and one near flower KS.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes the one in KS is near Hutchison,KS. Some counties in Metro under Watch and more might be added Southeastern part of KS in area.

Andrew H
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Andrew H
Terry
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Terry

Lol not true

John
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John

It is definitely true. There are multiple reports and research over the last 50 years showing that more tornadoes are happening farther east than they were before. I think this can be seen in the lack of severe weather we have had the last several years. Oklahoma and Texas see nowhere near as many tornadoes as they once did, but now appears to be Arkansas and Louisiana and points east. Sure we still get severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the plains, but they are not as common as before.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

Interesting read.. but is it shifting east due to actual increase in tornadoes or a combination of lack of reporting/lack of social media 50+ years ago vs tech and chasers today? How many tornadoes are not included in data even 30-40 years ago just because an eye, chaser, or smart phone was not in a rural area to report a tornado on the ground for 30s. Just saying looking more than 20-30 years back… that becomes a factor in any trend.

John
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John

Well people would still know if there were tornadoes because of damage to property, even in very rural areas someone could have damage to something on their land. You don’t have to witness a tornado first hand to see damage in the aftermath. There are storms today that do not even have tornado warnings on them that when you go back and look at the damage they decided a tornado must have passed through. Even 40 or 50 years ago there were still more people per square mile in the eastern states than out in the plains of Kansas, Oklahoma,… Read more »

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Its a theory, nothing more. It reminds me of living in South Florida through the 80’s. We had experienced 20 years of lack of hurricanes….after Donna and Cleo in the 60’s, nothing. There were theories of how the hurricane impact zones had shifted. All baloney, then came Andrew. If you wait long enough, things average out.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

I’m just saying a number of tornadoes make the data now because it touched down just long enough and was lucky enough to be spotted by a chaser and reported to NWS. I saw 3 times this happen last week in OK. Had it been 30-40 years ago these would not even have been documented because there was no warning and had it not been for a chaser it would not have been seen for the 30secs or so it was on the ground. It’s the same thing with hurricanes… prior to satellite.. if there was no ship there was… Read more »

Terry
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Terry

SPC is saying severe weather for Monday and Wednesday so the metro area .

Matt
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Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Updated Southern parts of Metro under Slight Risk.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I spent something like 4 hours yesterday working on my backyard. Am tempted to mow my front yard today even though it doesn’t need it that bad, since I just did it last weekend.

Backwoods4ever
Guest
Backwoods4ever

Mowing my wet yard best I can today. No way I could mow end of next week. Would have to hire a brush hog to mow my 5 acres. Garden is in so rain is welcome for sure. Don’t think I need 4 inches lol

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

So much better than last May!

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

True, in terms of temperature, but it’s just a little more wet, at least starting off. Feels like every square inch of my backyard is covered in dandelions, but I can’t cut it ’cause it’s still too wet!

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Most everybody south of State HIghway 36 is in the Marginal risk, but it looks as though the SPC added a Slight risk from about Emporia running southwest to Amarillo.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Update: SPC has added the southern portion of the Metro in the Slight Risk.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Impossible to mow my back yard at the moment. It’s still a lake from last week’s rains.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Still can’t mow the lower areas of my lot and yet more rain. Need a week of dry weather to help out, but not looking good this week.