A Brief Break from the Rain and Thunderstorms

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We are getting a mostly dry and nice weekend of weather as you still get nice days in an active weather pattern.

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The rain and thunderstorm chances go way up on Monday and will continue through Wednesday or Thursday.

TODAY: It will be near perfect with highs around 70° and a light wind. We are in a pattern this weekend where we will see small disturbances track in from the northwest. These disturbances will contain showers and thunderstorms. There will be one this evening across Nebraska and Iowa, but as it moves southeast the rain will likely fall apart. It may limp in early Sunday with a brief shower or T-Storm.

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SUNDAY: It will be a mostly dry day with highs 70°-75°. Now, that being said, there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm as we track disturbances coming in from the west and northwest. Any rain and thunderstorms that form to our northwest Sunday will be weakening as they move into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. So, if we see rain Sunday, it will be mostly light and brief. That will change later Sunday night and Monday morning.

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LATER SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING: We will be watching for the potential of seeing a more organized cluster of heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms. We will be getting into juicier air and this will allow any thunderstorms that form to our northwest to survive.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: After the chance of a morning thunderstorm cluster we will be tracking a cold front. This front will be stalling Monday night. It will then waver around through Wednesday or Thursday as a series of systems track along it from the southwest USA. So, we have a chance of some thunderstorms Monday afternoon. It depends how warm it gets and that depends on what happens during the morning.

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MONDAY NIGHT: A training echo event is possible along and north of the front. Flash flooding will be a problem as some locations will see 2″ to 5″ of rain. This data has the heavy thunderstorm zone just south of KC.  We will be watching this closely.

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TUESDAY: The front will be near as a system tracks in from the southwest. This will bring more rain and thunderstorms to the area. The rain chances will end Wednesday or Thursday after a main system moves by and pushes the front south for the final time in this latest rain and thunderstorm episode.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: 1″ to 4″ of rain is likely across much of the Plains and Midwest. A few locations could see 4″ to 7″. This is not that unusual for this time of year as we are into the wettest time of year. The problem is that the rivers are at or over flood stage and the ground is saturated. So, flash flooding and river flooding will be an issue. 36 people have died this year from flooding. Most of these deaths have occurred due to people driving around barricades. You can avoid being a flooding death statistic by following one simple rule. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

5″ to 10″ of rain is possible from Texas to Tennessee. This could have big impacts on the lower Mississippi river.

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If you need to mow, this is the day. Sunday is even a good day. The ground is wet and squishy, but you may have to deal with it as it will not have enough time to dry out before the next big thunderstorms arrive. Be careful with the mower as it can slide and slip on the wet ground.

Have a great week and enjoy the dry hours!

Jeff Penner

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Terry
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Terry

Maybe what Gary was talking the Black Dotted line and yesterday blog for severe weather for Tuesday/Wednesday maybe he’s on to something.. But maybe it’s not showing any severe weather now but maybe that will change and that’s reason why he was talking about it yesterday in the blog.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Thanks Jeff! And good reminder mowers hurt Alot of people each year.
I left town 8 Days ago on a cruise, it was dry!!
We flipped a switch apparently, boy did it get ever get wet. 2 water gaps destroyed by flood debris and 3 trees blown over various fences. I’m going to Hodge podge these water gaps…..destined to be destroyed over and over again this year. Beautiful weekend!!!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

BTW … May the Fourth be with you.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

There is not an 80 degree temperature in sight. Look what we had last May:
https://www.wunderground.com/calendar/us/mo/kansas-city/KMCI/date/2018-5

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Although May two years ago was pretty cool as well:
https://www.wunderground.com/calendar/us/mo/kansas-city/KMCI/date/2017-5

Weather Enthusiast
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Weather Enthusiast

Thank you for the forecast, I hope we see the lower amounts because everything needs to dry out

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Be careful with those mowers sliding around lol.

Dyl
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Dyl

Looks like our severe risks have gone down. Yay!

Brittany
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Brittany

SPC has the KC metro and a huge chunk of the Plains in a 15% chance for Wednesday, but the GFS doesn’t really have anything around us in the latest model. Of course and as always, that could change. I’m hoping it doesn’t, though. I’m fine with no severe weather!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

15 percent is super low…liking that

Dyl
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Dyl

Definitely, 15% is miniscule compared to average around this time of year, which is a good thing. Nobody wants hail/wind/tornado damage.

Matt
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Matt

But will go up closer to event. Also just Severe at moment for Tuesday thru Thursday. Marginal Sunday and Monday. Slight Risk today.

KSUstudent
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KSUstudent

From my experience it seems that when the SPC forecasts 15% of severe weather 5 days out, it is not a question of if, but where. The 15% means they can’t be certain where the primary risk will be, they can only give a more general forecast. All that to say, by seeing that forecast I would guess a moderate risk being issued is more likely than not, in the next 4-5 days. I am not saying KC will be in a moderate risk, but someone in the current 15% shaded region will be. This is not based on any… Read more »

j-ox
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j-ox

First?!