Severe Weather Risks Next Week

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Good morning bloggers,

Today is Kansas City’s sixth day in a row with measurable precipitation.  There is a disturbance moving across the plains this morning that will bring cloudy skies and a few periods of rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm.  It will be a cool day with highs in the 50s.  The weekend looks fantastic with highs in the 70s, and then we have an interesting set up next week with a stalling front. Let’s  take a look.

Monday:

This first map shows the dewpoint temperatures rising with a moisture surge into the plains from the Gulf of Mexico.

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The dewpoints are modeled to go up to 70 degrees in Kansas by Monday evening. This will be the fuel for thunderstorms, a few of which will likely be strong to severe.

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Tuesday Setup:

The warm front, the red line, is going to be a very long front stretching from a developing surface cyclone centered near Pueblo, CO Tuesday afternoon.  The front will extend all the way to near New York City.  South of this front, the humidity will be high and conditions will become favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms:

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I dashed in the black line showing where I see a severe weather risk on Tuesday.

Wednesday Setup:

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An upper level storm is likely going to move out over the Rocky Mountains and out into the plains around the middle of next week.  This will increase the winds aloft, and increase the chance of severe thunderstorms that may be a bit more significant.  The set up is increasingly looking a bit stronger and I dotted in the black line to show where I see a severe weather risk around next Wednesday.

We will go a bit more in-depth with our analysis in the next few days.  For now, let’s track two disturbances coming our way today with areas of rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be in the 50s all day with thickening clouds and rainfall amounts of under 1/4″ expected.  Next week will likely be much wetter.

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weather2020 Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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L.B
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L.B

The biggest trouble I see with the LRC is it can add to depression. Weather has an effect on the human physic I love this blog but at the same time dislike it. some times it makes me happy witch is good but sometimes it makes me look to far ahead and anticipate the bad, sometimes I am glad when he is wrong. Im not sure knowing what it will do ahead of time will be as great as we think it might be. if your life revolves around an indoor setting ,it might be different……….just food for thought

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

Odd question but on my phone and pad (Apple) I can not now seem to utilize the drop down menu at the top of the home page. Have to scroll down to the bottom of the page and then select the current blog. Not a big deal but don’t know if it’s just my devices or not?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Just dumped 4.5 inches out of my rain gauge. That’s my total since Sunday night. PV, KS.

Ross (N. Overland Park)
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Ross (N. Overland Park)

Interesting weather-related flight yesterday from Connecticut. My Baltimore to KC flight leg was cancelled due to storms between KC and Baltimore, so they re-routed me to Denver and then to KC. The route they had to take went clear up over the great lakes into Canada and then back down to Denver. Crazy long flight!

craig
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craig

Wednesday = Chase Day

Matt
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Matt

Their will be Storms some where in KS/MO next week to chase and maybe KC area or near it.

Troy
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Troy

Glad to see the forecast for rising dew points. I don’t think we have had one above 50F this year this far NW. Hopefully that gets us some rain.

Rodney
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Rodney

Gary: At this early stage do you think the day baseball game next Wednesday at 12:15 in St. Louis will be impacted by storms/rain? I’m going to the Cardinals vs Phillies game. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

So severe wx next week for the metro south? or does it include all of the metro and north.

DustinTheWind
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DustinTheWind

00z ECMWF aggressively drives cold air south of I-70 across KS into the TX south Plains during the day5 period. This strong frontal penetration will likely undercut an otherwise potentially favorable zone of large-scale forcing ahead of a southwestern US trough mid week. A considerable amount of convection may ultimately evolve along/north of the boundary, and some of this convection could be strong. However, the greatest risk of severe would likely occur south of the wind shift but the aforementioned boundary should be contaminated by precipitation, likely displacing the effective boundary and greater buoyancy. Predictability is too low to warrant… Read more »

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

More than half the lawns around me are these unmowed things with mass dandelions growing up because nobody’s had a chance to mow their lawns yet because it’s been so wet.

Dyl
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Dyl

Well, dandelions are also “the bee’s first food”.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

That’s what those with unkept yards keep telling themselves anyway lol. Funny thing, in my pastures I rarely ever see a dandylion! Cattle love to eat them, but they only proliferate in urban environments for whatever reason. They are an awesome species really

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Maybe related to them not being native to the Western Hemisphere? Not sure. I had never thought of them only being common in cities, but now that I think about it I’m amazed it wasn’t obvious to me already. Weird.

Ben
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Ben

Yeah, I’ve got a few hives in the backyard, and the bees are bringing in mostly yellow pollen. I’m thinking the dandelions are providing a majority of it. On another note, is anyone else’s basement ridiculously wet? I’ve got water coming up through cracks in the floor as well as from cracks in the wall. There are several constant trickles of water flowing into my floor drain, and I have to jump from dry spot to dry spot to avoid puddles.

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

same in my neighborhood, but I would say it is more like 75% are unmowed “weed farms”

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Oh, you can mow, but you might tear up the grass in the process, LOL

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

My 2 year thinks that dandelions say, “roaaarrr!!!” ha ha