Flash Flood Watch & Severe Weather Risk

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for a large area of the plains into the midwest.  There is also a severe weather risk today.

6 AM Radar:

Screen Shot 2019-04-30 at 5.50.57 AM

An area of snow is shown in the blue over Nebraska, and the band of thunderstorms was tracking north northeast into the KC metro area early this morning.

Lightning Strikes at 6 AM:

Screen Shot 2019-04-30 at 6.00.48 AM

The band of heaviest rain was moving into KC early this morning.  This first area of rain with embedded heavy thunderstorms is not an area of severe thunderstorms. Flooding is the main risk from this mornings band of rain. There may be a break in the thunderstorms and rain, and then we will see the next wave of energy approaching the area later this afternoon, and this is when the severe weather threat will increase.  The surface conditions will need to be monitored closely to see how unstable the lower layers of the atmosphere will become.

Today’s Severe Weather Risks:

day1otlk_1200

day1probotlk_1200_torn

The highest tornado risk is over eastern Oklahoma extending northeast into extreme southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri.  From the SPC:  “A lingering uncertainty revolves around the northward retreat of the surface boundary this afternoon across Oklahoma.  A more westward/northwestward position of this boundary is possible pending evolution of early -morning convection, and this may result in a higher afternoon and evening severe weather threat than currently depicted on this outlook.  This area will be monitored for possible upgrade later today”.

This mornings complex of rain and thunderstorms should be well off to the east and northeast by early afternoon.  Will another band quickly form and move in, or will there be enough time for the front to retreat north which will provide some higher instability and an increasing threat of severe weather later this afternoon?

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now through noon:  Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times with lightning, thunder and the potential for some minor flooding.  Rainfall amounts of 1/2″ to 2″ likely.  Temperatures gradually warming up into the upper 50s
  • Noon to 6 PM:  There may be a break in the rain, with southeast winds increasing.   Temperatures will continue to struggle to warm up.  If there is any break in the cloud cover, then it may get a bit warmer. Right now it appears it will stay in the 50s to lower 60s.  If this is the case, then the severe weather risk will be highest in that enhanced risk area to the south.  There is a strong wave of energy moving across the area, directly related to the “bomb cyclone” from 48 days ago, and this may be strong enough in this LRC cycle to produce a few severe thunderstorms in the cooler air.  An additional 1/2″ to 2″ of rain are possible.

Right now, it appears the warm front will be forced to stay way south of KC.  This may change, and we will be monitoring the higher instability associated with the warmer air to the south closely.

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Today’s Blog , to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great day!  We will be discussing this weather pattern in-depth on 41 Action News!

Gary

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Rodney’s Clockwork AngelsMr. PeteHighway of HeroesJohnBlue Flash Recent comment authors
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Rodney’s Clockwork Angels
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Rodney’s Clockwork Angels

Had left a plastic tote outside in the yard. I measured over 4.5 inches of rain in it. The tote has been there sense Sunday this week. My location is in East Lawrence on E 19th St.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Eastern Kansas lakes are super flooded early this year. With the Missouri River still flooded I think these lakes could reach the 93 flood levels.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The Royals game would be starting about now if they hadn’t postponed it. Wouldn’t be the longest rain delay ever!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

So, April was a “normal” month for rainfall, even though almost all of the rain came in the last two days of the month?

John
Guest
John

Most locations will be well above normal for April even though all of the rain came in the last 48 hours of the month. Like at my house I had .41″ for the month, but when I last checked my rain gauge about 20 minutes ago I have received almost 5″ of rain since Sunday afternoon. So I will wind up the month almost 2″ above average.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Tuesday evening to you sir!! I haven’t had a chance to check our gage as I’ve been monitoring our pond dam and neighbor’s lake dam…..at least 5 inches since Monday morning. Flooded mess here in Washington Creek Valley. Washington Creek looks like the Wakarusa River tonight and is out into the surrounding fields. Will be interesting to see if it goes over the County roads tonight……a lot of lakes running over into it at the moment… What a rain….biggest here since the night of the eclipse in 2017……. Have a great evening everyone…..please don’t drive into flooded roads… Read more »

craig
Guest
craig

Gary, I’ve now had 5.7″ of rain in the past 48 hours here in W Lenexa.

1.3″ Sunday night
1.4″ last night
3.0″ today

comment image

craig
Guest
craig

Here’s another
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Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

My camera did not capture this weird orange color. It came out more pink.

BP in OP
Guest
BP in OP

At the back end of the storm the wind switched toward the west, the lower clouds were racing westward and swirling over the house, and the most beautiful rainbow was formed.

I’ve never experienced clouds switching directions that quickly or that obviously.

Highway of Heroes
Guest
Highway of Heroes

Noticed that as well. Definitely very abrupt.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It just keeps coming!

Feels almost like the October event. Similar temperatures too.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Double rainbow visible to the southeast in west Parkville!

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Drove through a small patch of very dense fog on 9th st between Iowa and Emery here in Lawrence. It seemed out of place considering the rain and a moderate breeze blowing through.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Had close to 5.5 inches of rain since Sunday night, which boosts my rainfall for the month up to almost 6.7 inches.

George
Guest
George

Dumped another 1.5″ just now. That make 3″ since Sunday – 87th & Antioch in OP

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Man it’s just a wall of water heading in from the west.

John
Guest
John

Yes it is, and it has been that way all day. It has been pouring rain since 5:30 this morning.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Had a break from lightning around 10:30 AM to do a bike ride. Hoping I have another break here in an hour after this band near Ottawa passes through maybe it will taper off some to just anvil rains.

Drew
Guest
Drew

stream that runs into Indian creek behind my house has covered the whole walking path very fast be careful.

John
Guest
John

Flash Flood Warning for pretty much everybody in the Metro now.

Drew
Guest
Drew

Flash flood warning North Joco very hairy rain for the past 15 minutes

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Good call on the bomb cyclone repeating Gary. Just glad it didn’t turn into the super outbreak of 1974. It certainly had the potential.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes but Moderate Risk out and Davenport,Iowa has a Flash Food Emergency. Sun trying to come out at 101st street and Larmar Ave.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

I really don’t think we’re gonna get much severe weather here, dude.

craig
Guest
craig
weatherdancer
Guest
weatherdancer

does anyone know where the front is located right now? I’m trying to decide as to hold a practice at a high school until 5 or to cancel. I don’t like new drivers driving in bad conditions.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

231 FXUS63 KEAX 301629 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 .Update… Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019 The combination of the MCS that moved through the area this morning, the warm front just to our south, and renewed shower/storm development in south central KS and southwest KS, will help to keep the area clouded over. This will really limit surface based instability. Forecast soundings for later this afternoon and this evening do show some elevated instability developing. Latest convection allowing models are doing a decent… Read more »

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

roughly 5-9pm

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

I know a lot of people here are already discounting the severe weather, but we are not out of the woods completely– last year our roof, cars and driveway were severely pummeled by hail here in Lone Jack– at 7am in the 50s with cloud cover throughout the night. Literally hailed for 20 minutes– so its not impossible.

matt
Guest
matt

Paola had a Tornado on Monday Morning and it was not in the 70’s.

Brittany
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Brittany

Yeah, a small tornado that was only 45 feet wide. Barely anything.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

are we out of the woods completely yet?

matt
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matt

If you go to KCTV5 Website Brett Anthony did an update 30 minutes ago and says Watch will be issued in area today.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

where on the site?

Jason
Guest
Jason

I just read his post on twitter about 30min ago and it said the severe threat is trending further south. Still could be flooding, small hail, 60mph winds, etc. in our area.

craig
Guest
craig

Check the severe probabilities for this watch. That’s a pretty significant situation down there.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0111.html

John
Guest
John

I think if you want to see severe storms you may have to travel down to Wichita-Springfield area. These heavy rain storms up here keep regenerating and keeping the temperatures cool. I really don’t see the sun making any peaks out there today, but it still is early in the day. Watching local Oklahoma City stations because they have 4 or 5 active Tornado Warnings down there. Looks like we are setup for multiple hours of heavy rain about what we have had all morning so far.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Tornado watch for Oklahoma, south east kansas, and southwest Missouri

matt
Guest
matt

Mostly Enhanced Risk but part of Slight Risk in KS.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Based on Radar trends looks like it may be hard for anywhere north of I-44 to destabilize.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Severe weather risk is over. All this rain is making the atmosphere stable.

matt
Guest
matt

You never know because SPC hasn’t downgrade KCMO past Marginal Risk yet. MD for Tornado Watch down by Tulsa.

mizzou_fan87
Guest
mizzou_fan87

You sound like you want severe weather.

matt
Guest
matt

KCMO under Marginal Risk.means not over. MD for Tornado Watch to the South.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

A marginal risk means most likely no severe weather for at least 99 percent of us.

Grambo624
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Grambo624

Marginal risk = regular thunderstorms

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Don’t think it’s OVER but I think it’s going down. Even if we got severe weather later, idk how intense it would be. The continuous thunderstorms are helping though.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

The words “severe” and “strong” are not to be found in the updated NWS forecast.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Slight risk severe weather has shifted farther south looks like the cooler air will keep things stable around here thankfully.

matt
Guest
matt

It could always go back North.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

Yeah I’m not entirely convinced we are completely out of the woods yet– although its looking more positive than last night.

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

Have received 2.5″ since Sunday afternoon, got under a huge storm on Sunday that dropped .75″ in about an hour.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Good morning guys – that front seems like it will get awfully close to the south side of the metro, but I’m pretty concerned about flooding. It was like driving through a pond from the plaza to crown center this morning! It wasn’t even raining that hard either. Also looked at the possible rainfall totals through tonight and YIKES.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Good morning all!

Here’s my rainfall totals:

2.3″ of rain since Sunday afternoon.
Sunday – .2″
Monday – 1″
Today – 1.1″ thus far

This 2.3″ brings my April total up to 3.4″.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

So over the winter some of the bloggers were talking about the persistent anchor trough that set up and when that part of the pattern returned in the spring if a nearly stationary front got trapped in the trough it could lead to days & days of rain & flooding. I’ve noticed there’s been a boundary hanging around wavering north and south so are we in that set up now or is that part of the pattern yet to return? Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think this is one of those setups. We will likely see this more.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Gary,

Are we going to see any severe weather chances KC northward this spring? It feels like a dud of a severe weather season thus far.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

its only april

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

It’s May literally tomorrow though.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

May and June are our big severe weather months.

mizzou_fan87
Guest
mizzou_fan87

May can definitely be a big month, but generally June (at least, most of June) is when things start to settle down.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

early June into July can bring prolific wind storms though.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Here are my April totals for Maryville, Mo. I had five rain events for the month. The biggest recording was 1.78″ on April 29th. The least was a trace on April 24th. Things are really lush and green around here.Have a great day Bloggers! Stay dry!
Michael

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I believe the proper meteorological term for the conditions outside would be “yucky mess.”

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Morning all! HRRR has a complex/line moving through later this evening, but it doesn’t look anything too gnarly. I hope we don’t have that much severe weather. We don’t need it!

Weatherman2003
Guest
Weatherman2003

Thanks for the info Gary, I really hope that the boundary stays further south and we don’t see as much severe weather

Zachary
Guest
Zachary

First. And Gary what’s your gut feeling on what Northtowne will see today. Thanks and love having you as our weatherman

matt
Guest
matt

Clearing out by Topeka looks like meaning Rain has stopped their for moment looks like.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Storms extending out past Emporia and into Central Kansas. Would think if these keep training NE, will keep severe threat lower.

matt
Guest
matt

Then keeps all of KS/MO out any Risk.