Good morning bloggers,
Weather2020, LLC has made yet another incredibly accurate LRC® prediction. The “Bomb Cyclone” part of the LRC is cycling back through this week. Weather2020 predicted that it would cycle through near the end of April into early May, and here it is. Take a look at, what was called a “bomb cyclone” due to its incredible pressure drop from 994 mbar to 968 mbar in a short 16 hour period. Again, the surface pressure in Colorado dropped from 994 mbar (29.35 inches of mercury) to 968 mbar (28.58 inches of mercury or inHG) in just 16 hours. The definition of a “weather bomb” or “bomb cyclone” is a storm that undergoes a pressure drop of 24 mbar (0.71 inHG) in 24 hours. Nearly 100 mph winds occurred in the Texas Panhandle. Blizzard conditions formed over many states and flooding of the Missouri River began soon there after due to heavy rain and snowmelt in the next few days. And, now that part of the cycling pattern has returned perfectly on cycle.
A tropical storm, that became known as Tropical Storm Gordon, was predicted 8-months before there was even a cloud over the Gulf of Mexico in 2018. In the past two years, Weather2020, LLC has predicted Major Hurricanes Harvey, Michael, Florence, Irma, and Maria, Tropical Storm Gordon, and Subtropical Storm Alberto by using the LRC®. Gordon was the one predicted 8 months ahead of time, and on some level all of the others were identified weeks to months before they developed as well.
Seventy years of research has lead to this innovative method of weather prediction, and it is now published in the latest publication from Meteorological Technology International Magazine. Here is the link to the latest issue: The Latest Issue. And, I am honored to have been invited to Geneva, Switzerland to help open up the World Weather Conference in June, and moderate the opening day.
The Developing Weather Set-Up
A strong storm will be moving out of the western part of the nation and developing east of the Rocky Mountains this week. A series of disturbances will be monitored closely for excessive rainfall which will lead to flooding risks; severe thunderstorm set ups, and some snow farther north and west.
This is the 500 mbar flow, which is half way up in the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight, and thus 0 mbar. The surface has near a 1,000 mbar pressure, so the 500 mbar level, around 18,000 feet up, is a good level to track storm systems aloft as they are not influenced by surface friction. On this map above, valid this morning, there are a few very important features. First of all, this is very similar to the set up aloft before the “bomb cyclone” in March. We have a seasonal difference, as it is now no longer winter and we are deeper into spring. There is a kicking storm just like there was in March, and this will eject out the Southern California system out into the plains by Tuesday evening. There is another feature that is easy to miss. There is a blocking upper level high near the east coast of Greenland way up over the northern Atlantic Ocean. This is having an influence on this pattern as well. In the January cycle of the LRC, the cycle before the “bomb cyclone”, we had a brutally cold outbreak. We are in that part of the pattern as well, and parts of the upper midwest and Great Lakes just had a rare snow storm over this past weekend, and snow is likely in some areas again from this system.
Looking Into Tuesday:
There is an Enhanced Slight Risk on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring this day 2 set up for an increased risk of severe thunderstorms near the front I plotted on the surface map above. There are still many questions. One of them will be ongoing morning thunderstorms. From the SPC: “Based on sizable spread evident with/among the various model and model ensemble output, predictability of convection and convective evolution for this period still appears to be relatively low. There may be multiple rounds of thunderstorm development impacting the region, including at least one during the morning through midday and another during the late afternoon into Tuesday night. Both may be accompanied by at least some severe weather potential, but the primary severe threat seems likely to accompany the late afternoon into overnight convection. Aided by forcing for ascent in advance of the developing surface wave, and in the presence of strong shear near a 50-70+ knot 500 mb jet, the environment is expected to become conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells. It is possible that this may be focused near the intersection fo the front and lingering early day outflow, somewhere across northeastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, before activity tends to develop northeastward with the frontal wave.”
Where will the morning thunderstorms be located, and how wide spread will they be? If the morning activity is organized, then the front may be forced farther south, which is something we will be monitoring closely on Tuesday. Here are the risks the next three days.
Excessive rainfall is likely near the front. The LRC is providing the set ups for more thunderstorms as we approach the middle of May, and the second half of May will likely be wetter than the first half. This will lead to increasing flood risks as discussed and forecast in our spring severe weather special.
Here is a rainfall forecast from the GFS for the next 15 days:
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Mostly cloudy. The chance of rain is low until later tonight. Southwest winds shifting to the north at 10-25 mph and gusty. High: 63°
- Tonight: A front will begin moving northward as a warm front near the KS/OK border, and this will ignite an increasing chance of rain with a few heavy thunderstorms. The chance of rain increases to 100% later tonight. Low: 54°
- Tuesday: Rain and thunderstorms likely. There is a 100% chance of rain. A few thunderstorms may be severe with hail and damaging winds the main risks. Flooding is possible. High 65 northwest to 75 southeast. Total rainfall by Wednesday will be in the 1″ to 4″ range with locally higher and lower amounts likely.
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Have a great day! We will be discussing this weather pattern in-depth on 41 Action News!