ORDER IN CHAOS: Another Incredibly Accurate LRC® Prediction From Weather2020

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Good morning bloggers,

Weather2020, LLC has made yet another incredibly accurate LRC® prediction.  The “Bomb Cyclone” part of the LRC is cycling back through this week.  Weather2020 predicted that it would cycle through near the end of April into early May, and here it is.  Take a look at, what was called a “bomb cyclone” due to its incredible pressure drop from 994 mbar to 968 mbar in a short 16 hour period.  Again, the surface pressure in Colorado dropped from 994 mbar (29.35 inches of mercury) to 968 mbar (28.58 inches of mercury or inHG) in just 16 hours.  The definition of a “weather bomb” or “bomb cyclone” is a storm that undergoes a pressure drop of 24 mbar (0.71 inHG) in 24 hours.  Nearly 100 mph winds occurred in the Texas Panhandle.  Blizzard conditions formed over many states and flooding of the Missouri River began soon there after due to heavy rain and snowmelt in the next few days. And, now that part of the cycling pattern has returned perfectly on cycle.

Screen Shot 2019-04-28 at 5.14.48 PM

Screen Shot 2019-04-28 at 5.05.06 PM

A tropical storm, that became known as Tropical Storm Gordon, was predicted 8-months before there was even a cloud over the Gulf of Mexico in 2018.  In the past two years, Weather2020, LLC has predicted Major Hurricanes Harvey, Michael, Florence, Irma, and Maria, Tropical Storm Gordon, and Subtropical Storm Alberto by using the LRC®.  Gordon was the one predicted 8 months ahead of time, and on some level all of the others were identified weeks to months before they developed as well.

Seventy years of research has lead to this innovative method of weather prediction, and it is now published in the latest publication from Meteorological Technology International Magazine.  Here is the link to the latest issue:  The Latest Issue.  And, I am honored to have been invited to Geneva, Switzerland to help open up the World Weather Conference in June, and moderate the opening day.

The Developing Weather Set-Up

A strong storm will be moving out of the western part of the nation and developing east of the Rocky Mountains this week.  A series of disturbances will be monitored closely for excessive rainfall which will lead to flooding risks;  severe thunderstorm set ups, and some snow farther north and west.

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This is the 500 mbar flow, which is half way up in the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight, and thus 0 mbar.  The surface has near a 1,000 mbar pressure, so the 500 mbar level, around 18,000 feet up, is a good level to track storm systems aloft as they are not influenced by surface friction. On this map above, valid this morning, there are a few very important features. First of all, this is very similar to the set up aloft before the “bomb cyclone” in March. We have a seasonal difference, as it is now no longer winter and we are deeper into spring.  There is a kicking storm just like there was in March, and this will eject out the Southern California system out into the plains by Tuesday evening.  There is another feature that is easy to miss. There is a blocking upper level high near the east coast of Greenland way up over the northern Atlantic Ocean.  This is having an influence on this pattern as well.  In the January cycle of the LRC, the cycle before the “bomb cyclone”, we had a brutally cold outbreak. We are in that part of the pattern as well, and parts of the upper midwest and Great Lakes just had a rare snow storm over this past weekend, and snow is likely in some areas again from this system.

Looking Into Tuesday:

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There is an Enhanced Slight Risk on Tuesday.  The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring this day 2 set up for an increased risk of severe thunderstorms near the front I plotted on the surface map above.  There are still many questions.  One of them will be ongoing morning thunderstorms.  From the SPC: “Based on sizable spread evident with/among the various model and model ensemble output, predictability of convection and convective evolution for this period still appears to be relatively low.  There may be multiple rounds of thunderstorm development impacting the region, including at least one during the morning through midday and another during the late afternoon into Tuesday night. Both may be accompanied by at least some severe weather potential, but the primary severe threat seems likely to accompany the late afternoon into overnight convection.  Aided by forcing for ascent in advance of the developing surface wave, and in the presence of strong shear near a 50-70+ knot 500 mb jet, the environment is expected to become conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells.  It is possible that this may be focused near the intersection fo the front and lingering early day outflow, somewhere across northeastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, before activity tends to develop northeastward with the frontal wave.”

Where will the morning thunderstorms be located, and how wide spread will they be?  If the morning activity is organized, then the front may be forced farther south, which is something we will be monitoring closely on Tuesday.  Here are the risks the next three days.

Screen Shot 2019-04-29 at 6.09.19 AM

Excessive rainfall is likely near the front.  The LRC is providing the set ups for more thunderstorms as we approach the middle of May, and the second half of May will likely be wetter than the first half. This will lead to increasing flood risks as discussed and forecast in our spring severe weather special.

Here is a rainfall forecast from the GFS for the next 15 days:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy.  The chance of rain is low until later tonight.  Southwest winds shifting to the north at 10-25 mph and gusty.  High:  63°
  • Tonight:  A front will begin moving northward as a warm front near the KS/OK border, and this will ignite an increasing chance of rain with a few heavy thunderstorms.  The chance of rain increases to 100% later tonight.  Low:  54°
  • Tuesday:  Rain and thunderstorms likely. There is a 100% chance of rain.  A few thunderstorms may be severe with hail and damaging winds the main risks.  Flooding is possible.  High 65 northwest to 75 southeast. Total rainfall by Wednesday will be in the 1″ to 4″ range with locally higher and lower amounts likely.

There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great day!  We will be discussing this weather pattern in-depth on 41 Action News!

Gary

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Skylar
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Skylar

All this rain moving through does not look like the kind that suddenly falls apart after sunrise. Flash flooding looks like a much bigger threat though.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=2019043000|NAM|MW|con|scp|21|38.8,-94.7|ml|severe

mmmmmm Tasty Tasty

Matt
Guest
Matt

Is that for today?
Also in Southeastern KS Dime size Hail right know with a Storm. We are still under Slight Risk at moment. Back end of Rain is in Central KS meaning where it starts.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Tomorrow will be a fascinating day to watch. The new NAM run has shoved the warm front way south, while the GFS has it pretty much bifurcating the KC Metro. All in all, we probably won’t know anything until tomorrow at noon.

George
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George

1.5″ at my house in OP 87th and Antioch

John
Guest
John

Well I got under that one storm last night with all the hail and torrential downpours for almost 2 hours. Add in what fell overnight and my rain gauge recorded 3.36″. That one cell got me above average for the month of April. Wish it could have been more spaced out over several days.

Josh
Guest
Josh

It appears the threat for severe weather is shifting south of the area for tomorrow

Matt
Guest
Matt

Still under Slight Risk.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

not really, just the enhanced risk

Troy
Guest
Troy

Everything seems to end up SE of where the models originally put it. We keep looking wet up here in Republic county on the 7 day and especially the 10 day but then it ends up farther South and East. I have only had .40 this month and missed everything last night. The models have now pushed the rain for tomorrow S again and it looks like we will get minimal amounts.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

A trend I noticed way back in midwinter. It either goes southeast (usually) or northwest (sometimes). Those are the only directions storms can go.

Terry
Guest
Terry

The slight risk that severe weather has shifted some North Meanwhile Enhance risk has shifted some South. If you look at Gary’s chart shows from this morning chart.from SPC. . But we all know things will probably change again and it may come up more north again!

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Hopefully it won’t come up again. The models have been trending for everything to move SE of Kansas City. We don’t need severe weather here.

Matt
Guest
Matt

I was going to say that. We haven’t been in Enhanced Risk yet.

Matt
Guest
Matt
Matt
Guest
Matt
Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Wow Gary – a big congrats to you today. How exciting.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

Whats the chance the storms will be severe?

Matt
Guest
Matt
David McGuire
Guest
David McGuire

0.9″ of rain here just NE of McLouth KS

Screaming Yellow Zonker
Guest
Screaming Yellow Zonker

Great article as well as the headline graphics and photos. Congratulations!

Steve Huff
Guest
Steve Huff

Congrats, Gary! Thrilled for you to have the article published and the invitation. Geneva is great and Switzerland is outstanding in its beauty. Looks like a post card in many places. I hope you have some time to explore while you are there.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Haven’t posted or read comments in weeks, but continue to read the blog daily. HUGE CONGRATULATIONS GARY! You should be very proud, and we are lucky to have you in Kansas City. Intersting to see how this week unfolds. Hoping all this rain now means Mother’s Day weekend won’t be a washout for our yearly Crawfish Boil.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded 2 inches of rain up here in Maryville Missouri much-needed. have a great day bloggers,
Michael

Bill
Guest
Bill

Congrats Gary! Also between the stress and fear created by GOT’s epic white walker battle and the thunderstorms, I hardly slept last night.

I’m a little concerned for tomorrow for the general area. The enhanced helicity index is pretty impressive. Just add some instability and our local meteorologists will have a long night tomorrow.

DustinTheWind
Guest
DustinTheWind

Ugh. 47 days from right now is the Symphony in the Flint Hills in Chase County, KS, just in time for the Bomb Cyclone to be circling back through. Here’s to hoping we get a 12 hour window of dry weather, but I’m concerned the next cycle is going to be accompanied with some very strong storms.

https://symphonyintheflinthills.org/

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Congrats Gary!

Ben
Guest
Ben

10-14 inches over the next 15 days? I don’t believe that map. I’ve had an inch in the last 30 days. It’s going to get wet for sure but these rainfall maps have been wrong for a solid month now.

sierravista
Guest
sierravista

Congratulations Gary! What an honor to be invited to Geneva and to be published in the magazine. Wow! I expect no one on the blog doubts the LRC now.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Fascinating weather that is for sure. How was it possible for the thunderstorms to ignite over night with the cool air mass in place? They seemed pretty strong even though it was cooler.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m not sure, but it reminds me of the strong overnight storms one Friday night in March with temperatures around 40.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Raise your hand if you were awoken in the middle of the night by thunder.

*raises hand*

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

*raises hand*

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

I missed out on the whole thing. Did we even have any thunder here in NW Lawrence? Though, I particularly enjoy extra deep slumber during rain events. Woke up to .75″ in the gauge.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

The storms were not severe, but very productive for rain and thunder when they made it to Lawrence. The city emergency management team does lots of good updates on social media for when things are expected to be bad or safe.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Also will there be a Dryline and will Temps try and get in 70’s or near 80 tomorrow.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Eh, don’t think so. I think the thunderstorms that develop tomorrow morning will push that front down further like Gary was saying.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

That is an awesome honor Gary! Congratulations! Looking forward to hearing about the experience. Unfortunately, I am headed out of town today and won’t be back until Wednesday so I will miss the event tomorrow. Guess there will be more opportunities after this based on the LRC.

Weatherman2003
Guest
Weatherman2003

Thank you Gary, very cool