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Good Sunday bloggers,

The cold front that blew through Saturday afternoon has stalled in the southern Plains. It will return north as a warm front later today and tonight as a system tracks out of the Rockies. This will generate some strong to severe thunderstorms in central and northwest Kansas this evening where there is a slight risk of severe weather. The main threat is large hail. Our area is in a marginal risk for severe weather as the event will transition into a heavy rain event.  Tonight is just round one of about three to four rounds of heavy thunderstorms this week.

1

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening as the main show organizes across northwest Kansas. Highs will be in the 50s around here.

2

TONIGHT (7 PM-MIDNIGHT): The thunderstorms in northwest Kansas will organize into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). This MCS will contain frequent lightning, very heavy rain and possibly small hail as it arrives. This time period will also see new showers and thunderstorms increase across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.

3

MONDAY (MIDNIGHT-7 AM): This is when we have the best chance for very heavy thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will be 1″ to 2″ per hour. It will be a loud night in the region and we will have to watch for the chance of flash flooding. Temperatures will rise to the mid and upper 50s.

4

MONDAY MORNING: The heavy rain and thunderstorms will end 5-7 AM, leaving lingering showers and a few thunderstorms the rest of the morning.

5

MONDAY AFTERNOON: The chance of rain is near zero and we may see some sun allowing highs to reach the 60s. If it stays cloudy, highs may be stuck in the 50s. The front that came through Saturday as a cold front, that returns north tonight as a warm front will head south as a cold front tomorrow morning, stalling tomorrow afternoon. This front is waiting for a bigger system to track across the Plains Monday night and Tuesday.

6

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: Rain and thunderstorms will increase Monday night and continue Tuesday. The front will be drifting north as a series of disturbances track along the front ahead of the main system. More very heavy rain and flash flooding is possible. Temperatures will rise to the 60s.

7

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: The main storm arrives and the rain and thunderstorms will likely increase even more. Flash flooding will be more likely, but what about severe weather? It will depend on how warm it becomes. If it rains all day which keeps temperatures in the 60s, we will have mostly a flash flooding threat. If the rain breaks during the afternoon and the front drifts farther north and we see highs in the 70s, then severe weather will be more likely.

8

WEDNESDAY: The front will head south as a cold front and will not return. So, later Tuesday night the heavy rain and thunderstorms will shift southeast and weaken. We will still see lingering showers and drizzle on Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

9

RAINFALL FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: It looks like our viewing area is being targeted for the most rain. 2″ to 4″ is likely for most locations with a few areas possibly seeing 4″ to 5″ of rain. Keep in mind, 1″ to 2″ of rain can fall in one hour and that is where flash flooding can become an issue.

10

Thursday-Saturday look mostly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. If you need to mow the yard, this is the day, because it will be the end of the week before you can get out in the yard. The grass will be growing rapidly!

Have a great week!

Jeff Penner

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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)Mr. PeteShoedogGaryEmaw Recent comment authors
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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Wow look at that large swath of rain on the radar headed east!!

Emaw
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Emaw

What was the official low at KCI this morning? There was a lot of talk about frost/freeze the last few days. Warmed up nicely down here in Linn Valley this afternoon to 65 with quite a bit of sun, the fish are biting baby! Hoping for beneficial rains without flooding.

Dyl
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Dyl

NWS calling for a good 2-4 inches across much of the area, which could be a blessing and a curse.

https://www.weather.gov/media/eax/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

shoedog (Leawood)
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shoedog (Leawood)

Gary: Part of the volunteers putting together the Web.com tournament here Mother’s Day weekend. What is your call For Wednesday 8th through Mother’s Day? Will the rain clear the area or will we be battling more of what we see this week? Thanks

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

Absolute deluge happening right now, guess this is something to get used to over the next few days

Matt
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Matt

Severe Thunderstrom Warning intill 6:45pm and includes Northeast OP but not Raining.

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

Pea sized hail in Kirksville… up til now we’ve had 0.93” of rain for the month – looks like more on the way.

Matt
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Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Looks like clearing KS/MO line that’s under Marginal Risk for today.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

And as usual, these thunderstorms will arrive in the middle of the night and wake me up. 🙁

Brittany
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Brittany

Right?!

Terry
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Terry

comment image looks like some big Thunderstorms!

Matt
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Matt

Hopefully no longing tracking ones.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Third?

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

Currently in Lansing, it is sleeting/tiny hail with the shower that just went through.

Matt
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Matt