Good Sunday bloggers,
The cold front that blew through Saturday afternoon has stalled in the southern Plains. It will return north as a warm front later today and tonight as a system tracks out of the Rockies. This will generate some strong to severe thunderstorms in central and northwest Kansas this evening where there is a slight risk of severe weather. The main threat is large hail. Our area is in a marginal risk for severe weather as the event will transition into a heavy rain event. Tonight is just round one of about three to four rounds of heavy thunderstorms this week.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening as the main show organizes across northwest Kansas. Highs will be in the 50s around here.
TONIGHT (7 PM-MIDNIGHT): The thunderstorms in northwest Kansas will organize into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). This MCS will contain frequent lightning, very heavy rain and possibly small hail as it arrives. This time period will also see new showers and thunderstorms increase across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
MONDAY (MIDNIGHT-7 AM): This is when we have the best chance for very heavy thunderstorms. Rainfall rates will be 1″ to 2″ per hour. It will be a loud night in the region and we will have to watch for the chance of flash flooding. Temperatures will rise to the mid and upper 50s.
MONDAY MORNING: The heavy rain and thunderstorms will end 5-7 AM, leaving lingering showers and a few thunderstorms the rest of the morning.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: The chance of rain is near zero and we may see some sun allowing highs to reach the 60s. If it stays cloudy, highs may be stuck in the 50s. The front that came through Saturday as a cold front, that returns north tonight as a warm front will head south as a cold front tomorrow morning, stalling tomorrow afternoon. This front is waiting for a bigger system to track across the Plains Monday night and Tuesday.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: Rain and thunderstorms will increase Monday night and continue Tuesday. The front will be drifting north as a series of disturbances track along the front ahead of the main system. More very heavy rain and flash flooding is possible. Temperatures will rise to the 60s.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: The main storm arrives and the rain and thunderstorms will likely increase even more. Flash flooding will be more likely, but what about severe weather? It will depend on how warm it becomes. If it rains all day which keeps temperatures in the 60s, we will have mostly a flash flooding threat. If the rain breaks during the afternoon and the front drifts farther north and we see highs in the 70s, then severe weather will be more likely.
WEDNESDAY: The front will head south as a cold front and will not return. So, later Tuesday night the heavy rain and thunderstorms will shift southeast and weaken. We will still see lingering showers and drizzle on Wednesday with highs in the 50s.
RAINFALL FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: It looks like our viewing area is being targeted for the most rain. 2″ to 4″ is likely for most locations with a few areas possibly seeing 4″ to 5″ of rain. Keep in mind, 1″ to 2″ of rain can fall in one hour and that is where flash flooding can become an issue.
Thursday-Saturday look mostly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. If you need to mow the yard, this is the day, because it will be the end of the week before you can get out in the yard. The grass will be growing rapidly!
Have a great week!