Good morning bloggers,
There is a large risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the plains, and Kansas City is on the northern edge of this risk. An upper level storm is forecast to be over western Texas by late this afternoon. This map below shows the flow aloft around 18,000 feet above us. Look at the closed circle near Lubbock, TX:
The closed circle is showing where the upper level storm is located. If that would bodily come out into the plains, then a very heavy and wide spread rain event would happen near Kansas City. The models, however are not holding this system together, and it is predicted to stretch out and this may limit the extent of the area of rain and thunderstorms, and even more likely limit the northern extension of the area of rain. This northern edge of the storm is likely going to be near Kansas City, which makes our weather forecast difficult today.
I plotted the map below:
The position of this surface front will be one of the most important factors for where the rain will fall tonight. If that front is a bit faster, then Kansas City will be left high and dry tonight as the thunderstorms will be developing near the front and growing as they gradually shift south and east. If the front is a bit farther north than this position, the KC could have 3″ of rain. 3″ of rain is likely near where the front is located at 8:30 PM. This will be the most important parameter of this storm that we will be monitoring closely. When I am on at 5 and 6 PM tonight we should be able to narrow down where the heavy rain will hit, and where it will miss.
The NAM model last night had this prediction, which did have KC in the thunderstorms, with the northern edge rather close. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms, especially when the thunderstorms first form. Large hail is possible in that first two hours of development, and then it will transition to a heavy rain event near that front. Farther south the risk is a bit higher.
This is a three day severe weather risk storm, as you can see the risks shifting east over the next two days:
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
Today: Periods of clouds with a high near 78°. South winds 10-25 mph. The chance of rain is zero before 4 PM, and then there is an increasing chance of evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are likely south of I-70 between 5 PM and 10 PM with some severe weather possible. The chance is lower north of I-70. 1/2″ to 3″ of rain are possible.
Have a great day!