KC Is On The Edge Of This Storm

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a large risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the plains, and Kansas City is on the northern edge of this risk.  An upper level storm is forecast to be over western Texas by late this afternoon.  This map below shows the flow aloft around 18,000 feet above us. Look at the closed circle near Lubbock, TX:

1

The closed circle is showing where the upper level storm is located. If that would bodily come out into the plains, then a very heavy and wide spread rain event would happen near Kansas City.  The models, however are not holding this system together, and it is predicted to stretch out and this may limit the extent of the area of rain and thunderstorms, and even more likely limit the northern extension of the area of rain. This northern edge of the storm is likely going to be near Kansas City, which makes our weather forecast difficult today.

2

I plotted the map below:

6

The position of this surface front will be one of the most important factors for where the rain will fall tonight.  If that front is a bit faster, then Kansas City will be left high and dry tonight as the thunderstorms will be developing near the front and growing as they gradually shift south and east.  If the front is a bit farther north than this position, the KC could have 3″ of rain.  3″ of rain is likely near where the front is located at 8:30 PM. This will be the most important parameter of this storm that we will be monitoring closely. When I am on at 5 and 6 PM tonight we should be able to narrow down where the heavy rain will hit, and where it will miss.

4

The NAM model last night had this prediction, which did have KC in the thunderstorms, with the northern edge rather close.  There is a risk of severe thunderstorms, especially when the thunderstorms first form. Large hail is possible in that first two hours of development, and then it will transition to a heavy rain event near that front. Farther south the risk is a bit higher.

day1otlk_1300

This is a three day severe weather risk storm, as you can see the risks shifting east over the next two days:

day2otlk_0600

day3otlk_0730

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

Today:  Periods of clouds with a high near 78°.  South winds 10-25 mph.  The chance of rain is zero before 4 PM, and then there is an increasing chance of evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are likely south of I-70 between 5 PM and 10 PM with some severe weather possible.  The chance is lower north of I-70.  1/2″ to 3″ of rain are possible.

Have a great day!

Gary

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EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

KCI reported 0.4″. Probably about the same at my location.

John
Guest
John

Rainfall total was .21 at my house at 152 Highway. Pretty disappointed in that total.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

1.3″ near old town Lenexa

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

1.3″ here in west central Independence. Looks like a lot more just a couple of miles south of us.

Doug
Guest
Doug

1.62″ near 143rd and Switzer.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Crazy lightning but dry in Parkville.

Most comments since the early March snowstorm! 🙂 The blog is back alive my friends.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Update, finally getting some precipitation here. A few loud thunderclaps too.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Tornado Warning in Anderson and Franklin counties just southwest of the metro!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Were tornados expected tonight?

Matt
Guest
Matt

No but a chance.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

That was a POOF.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Looks like i-35 Is in that 3 inch band. Getting slammed in west Olathe off 119th and K-7. Getting some small hail mixed in with the heavy rain right now. Looking at around dime size. Lots of lightning looking off to the SW

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Looks like a strong line of severe thunderstorms will clip the south side of town– some in which half 2 inch hail! I’m in Overland Park for the weekend so hopefully I will get to see some good storms!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Nothing in the northland yet.

John
Guest
John

Cold front already passed by also, storms just blew up southeast of I-35 in the last 15 minutes. If you watch the radar you can see the cold front pass by and then the storms formed. Looks like us up here might not get any rain tonight other than a shower or sprinkle.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Is it just me or does this setup later in the season scream a narrow corridor where a band of training thunderstorms will set up producing 5″+ rainfall?

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

The Slow moving MCS along warm front coming in June

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

1.2 inches of rain just south of St Joseph, much needed and can’t wait to mushroom hunt! Finally my area got hit and not missed. Hope everyone that needs rain gets enough but not too much it causes issues

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

POOF!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Not POOF!

davec
Guest
davec

East side of town. Zip. One sprinkle. Sigh

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Got hail at my house in Independence. First severe thunderstorm of the year in the books!

Ross (N. Overland Park)
Guest
Ross (N. Overland Park)

Light Hail/Heavy Rain in Shawnee

ginapuff
Guest
ginapuff

New MD discussion by NWS, 95% chance of T-storm watch being issued for metro.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0370.html

Matt
Guest
Matt

Watch intil 11pm.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Johnson/Miami/Cass under warning.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Severe TS Warning for Spring at 5:13.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Severe TS Watch for Douglas County (Lawrence)

Craig
Guest
Craig
Matt
Guest
Matt
Craig
Guest
Craig

That lone wolf down there in Coffey county just went severe with quarter-sized hail and 60 mph winds.
Moving NE at 55 mph places it on a direct path to the southern metro. Arrival sometime after 6:00 pm.

Link
Guest
Link

Accompanied by an interesting swath of special weather statements as well. I’m in it’s path it looks like. Bout to get loud over here in an hour.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

We’re doomed. Head for the hills. Take cover.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Why? Bad Weather might happen.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes we will have Severe Weather doesn’t mean it will be Tornado’s.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Can’t read sarcasm can ya? Lol

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Storms look to be popping alot further north than SPC thought….

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TWX-N0Q-0-24#

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I was just about to mention this. The latest HRRR had the front go through much slower resulting in the metro in the heavy storm activity. Looks like the threat is still there.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

These storms are moving into totally uncapped air.

comment image?1555536388533

Matt
Guest
Matt

Means more chance of Severe Weather here. Soon KC area will be under a Watch can bet.

Craig
Guest
Craig

On the Topeka radar, the front appears to be way the heck out there still…stretching from NW of Manhattan to NW of Hiawatha and then up toward Des Moines…or well over 100 miles NW of the metro as of 3:30.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Just like every other weather event, it’s fair to say, nobody has any idea what’s going to happen ? That’s what I thought. Need more Asian guys in the field of Meteorology

Link
Guest
Link

We need less people like you in the world.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

so true

Kadens Mom
Guest
Kadens Mom

Oh my goodness!

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Yes, we totally need more Asian guys in the field, because any American doing it is immediately bad right?

Bentley
Guest

first!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

If you miss out on rainfall tonight, better chance for widespread rains starting later Sunday into Monday. Then middle to end of next week a systems seems to get cutoff and Brings most of the region repeated rainfall setups. Still early enough this dry spell won’t hurt anything, but now that Alot of fields have been planted time for some rain!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I’d be laughing if we were too far north with 3/4ths of the storms this Spring.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

You also said it would snow here in late April, like 27-30th time frame if I recall. Ready to eat that crow?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It fits the LRC. It’s just that the temperatures are uncooperative. October 14…January 22…and others.

I remember I went on and on about April 28 as the date to save throughout the winter. Sometimes it just doesn’t happen, unfortunately.

2018-2019 winter was lots of fun, but also the most anticlimactic I’ve ever personally experienced.

KSUstudent
Guest
KSUstudent

Is there a public calendar or set of dates/weeks severe weather is predicted? I watched the forecast last night but did not see anything about specific dates. Looks like an active season though and I’m ready for it!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

HRRR being very consistent with where the thunderstorm development hits. It takes it just barely south of the immediate metro. Not to say there won’t be rain though, as Kumke said, as we’ll get into the northern part of the MCS so we won’t be left high and dry. That might be the best case scenario if we want to avoid severe weather.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

What’s MCS?

anshad
Guest
anshad

Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than extratropical cyclones, and normally persists for several hours or more.

What they are saying above is that we will just have the general rain and rumbles possibly instead of the wrath from the exploding thunderstorms.

matt
Guest
matt

MD out for Watch.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

The only MD on the NOAA website is down in Texas.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

that’s for the enhanced area

FARMERMIKE
Guest
FARMERMIKE

so who shut the faucet off. here in north central kansas we sure need a good rain again.
i thought the rain part of the pattern was repeating at the start of this cycle???

JC Joe
Guest
JC Joe

I agree. This is the third storm that failed to produce in my area (South of Junction City). The ground is beginning to crack from lack of rain.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Clouds are slowly breaking up here in St Joe. Will this have any impact on the “POOF” warning I’ve issued?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

The clouds are going POOF.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Yes.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

same in liberty

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Nope…looks to me like BIG PAPA POOF for the win…especially areas to the north and west of KC.

matt
Guest
matt

Same with OP. Yes we will have Hail and Winds and also near Enhanced Risk.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

We are not going to be anywhere close to the Enhanced risk.

matt
Guest
matt

On KS side near it.

John
Guest
John

No breaks in the clouds by KCI. Have not seen the sun at all today. Very thick overcast.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

The same applies in Parkville.

Nick
Guest
Nick

So this would be the first cycle where the “blizzard” part of the pattern doesnt produce for St. Joe. Starting to build the “ice” up here.

Craig
Guest
Craig

It’s National Haiku Day

The floods are over
We need some rain for our lawns
Help us out Gary

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

POOF POOF POOF

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Keep on poofing, big papa!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Poof the severe weather, but please not the rain.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

He is lots more fun in the winter…………..hope next year he is right right right.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Nah, snow isn’t as bad as severe weather.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

When will we ever get a cool summer with lots of rain/storms *without* severe risk? I think in the Midwest such a thing may always be a dream…

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I want snow.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
I missed your spring forecast last night at 6:30. Is there a way I can watch on this blog or KSHB weather? Just curiuos, thanks and Happy “Hump Day”!
Michael

Ross (N. Overland Park)
Guest
Ross (N. Overland Park)

Something right with the world today
And everybody knows it’s wrong
But we can tell ’em no or we could let it go
But I’d would rather be a hanging on
Livin’ on the edge
You can’t help yourself from fallin’
Livin’ on the edge
You can’t help yourself at all
Livin’ on the edge
You can’t stop yourself from fallin’
Livin’ on the edge (everybody, everybody)

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Funny you’d quote a song. As soon as I saw the blog title I mentally sang “I’m on the edge…of stormy” (original lyric: glory).