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Good morning bloggers,

Moisture is surging north from the Gulf of Mexico and it is forming into what meteorologists named “the moisture tongue” many years ago.  The dew points can appear to be in the shape of a tongue, as you can imagine below:

2

This is the forecast dew point profile valid tomorrow morning, and then the map below shows how the dewpoints increase with 70°+ dewpoints forecast to surge to near the Red River Valley alone the Texas/Oklahoma border by Wednesday afternoon and evening. This map below shows the surface forecast and I plotted the fronts on there.  Thunderstorms are most likely going to be generated near and just east of these frontal boundaries.

3

The Storm Prediction Center has placed this risk out for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and you can see how it fits the pattern I plotted above.

day2otlk_0600

1

From the SPC:

A moist air mass will already be in place across the region beneath
   a well-developed EML. Resultant capping should preclude thunderstorm
   development across the region until the afternoon when the
   combination of daytime heating, large-scale ascent, boundary-layer
   mixing and surface convergence act to overcome the convective
   inhibition. Narrowing down the best location for initial development
   is difficult given the prevalence of surface boundaries. Initiation
   is also possible within the open warm sector. Once convective
   initiation occurs, quick and strong updraft development is
   anticipated, with the potential for very large hail (i.e. greater
   than 2" in diameter). Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected
   into the evening as large-scale ascent strengthens and the entire
   system shifts eastward. 

   Primary severe threat is large hail. A tornado threat exists, but
   weakness in the flow between 850 and 700 mb (resulting from the
   preceding shortwave trough and overall positive tilt of the upper
   trough) cast some doubt towards the robustness of low-level
   mesocyclone organization. Damaging wind gusts are also likely,
   particularly later in the period as a convective line organizes
   along the front.

This storm fits the “blizzard part of the LRC” perfectly. And, it is right on schedule and predicted to arrive this week.  This storm is also directly related to the beginning of this years pattern in October; the january 12th nearly one foot snowstorm in KC (11 inches fell in Olathe).  This storm has produced significant precipitation in all four previous cycles.  The fifth LRC cycle begins Wednesday night into Thursday.

Let’s see how this sets up.  I have the rest of the day off, after my radio hit on Sports Radio 810 WHB in a few minutes.  Have a great day, and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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BrittanythetophatAndrew HRyanKaden(Liberty Missouri) Recent comment authors
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Andrew H
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Andrew H

Anyone else not seeing todays writeup here .?
Its on the kshb site but not seeing it here. Again

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Couple things
1. Linear MCS tonight

2. Your site is giving a warning saying it can’t be trusted due to a security certificate being invalid

3. I like walking outside and it’s close to 70 degrees. Beats warming up the car

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

A lot of the models show that KC may not even get any rain at all tonight sadly. Hopefully the storms can push farther north than what is being shown since we’ve already missed the last few systems to the north and south.

Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Latest and yes the Enhanced Risk is closer to KC area.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Yes but the slight risk is much narrower. So the north half of the metro is in the “marginal risk”

Brittany
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Brittany

The slight and marginal risks are also closer to KC than the enhanced risk is. I don’t think we’ll be getting anything too bad here.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, the certificate for your web site appears to have expired. Chome is warning your site could be compromised. Suggest your IT folks check it and take care of issues.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Yes, I get a message that says weather2020 “can not be trusted”, then I have the option to “continue anyway”

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’ve had the same problem too.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Same here to

Matt
Guest
Matt

Having same problem.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019041700&fh=24

To me it looks like central Oklahoma might get caught underneath the cap and see storms forming south and north of their area. Nam seems to show storms rapidly develop in northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas along the boundary with storms forming in Texas over the dry line.

Matt
Guest
Matt

New Data is in so Jeff will show it coming up. If you move it the Purple in the future tomorrow gets near area. I would say Enhanced Risk gets adjusted in next update to include more of Kansas Emporia and south.

Kaden(Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden(Liberty Missouri)

our area?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

They predicted floods worse than 93 on the spring forecast tonight. 15-20 inches rain next two months.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

If it rains into June-July would agree 2019>1993. The trigger for the major flooding that year at least on the Missouri River didn’t really get going until May. To this day have never seen heavier rain than July 10 1993. That was the event that caused SW Blvd to major flood.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Damaging Hail is a Yes per Weather Channel.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

I keep hearing “let’s see how this set up” and “I will go into depth in the next day or two.” The set up is one day away. Gary, I see that you put the best chance for severe weather in Oklahoma, and I am thinking that is because that is where the triple point is, but there still is risk here in KC, what are you thinking?

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

I think we could see some stronger storms, but not a breakout of them.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Hello Gary and Fellow Bloggers. I haven’t checked in lately, but with tomorrows system I thought I would. Before coming here, I checked the models and looked at various parameters including upper winds, surface winds, temps for surface boundaries, CAPE, SigTor, and of course the Skew-T charts. Funny that Gary has the area in Oklahoma and Texas circled, because that’s the area I had picked out that could get walloped with a possible tornado or two. Just hope we don’t see the large size hail. Two inch hail can kill you if it hits you in the head or chest… Read more »

matt
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matt

Their will be more SPC updates before tomorrow and they might change KSHB forecast.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Man, it may be that the GFS is overdoing things, but things look to get juicy tomorrow afternoon into the evening with 65+ dewpoints. I always enjoy these events where it isn’t a violent outbreak, but a nice show put on by mother nature. If the LRC is as accurate as Gary believes it to be, I think we are in for a pretty nasty May and June.

matt
Guest
matt

Then SPC will update Risk for tomorrow and maybe Moderate Risk some where and Enhanced Risk expand.

CRAIG
Guest
CRAIG
matt
Guest
matt

Most of OK Enhanced Risk know at moment. Small part of KS under Enhanced Risk at moment to.

KSUstudent
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KSUstudent

Is there a spring forecast coming out this year? I had questions about the last few weeks of April. Love the blog this time of year. Keep up the good work!

matt
Guest
matt

Tonight.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

How far into spring are we now?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Are the seasonal differences causing April to be drier than normal? It appears we flipped a switch or turned off the faucet when spring set in. Hopefully we get some rain to settle the dust and water the plants and flowers, mother nature need to kick in some rain. Hopefully it won’t disrupt those farmers than can get in the fields that weren’t impacted by the horrible floods. It’s sad we have the terrible river flooding on the one hand but now it’s drying out since end of March. Are these seasonal differences because of the warmer temps and jet… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Kurt….relax buddy. This dry period was a blessing to farmers, it was exactly what they needed. This pattern is packed with systems, we will get a rain soon and I expect May to be very wet and active.

Bill
Guest
Bill

I don’t blame Kurt though. He has PTSD from the past few years with it being so dry. The rains will come.

Nick
Guest
Nick

Well, Im not too concerned yet for St. Joe, but after going through that like 2 year stint of being in a hole, seeing a few storms go north and then south of you kind of makes you feel that sick feeling, even though we have had an overall wet pattern so far, just the thought of another rain shadow targeting us so soon is not fun, will be watching Wed. Closely as that is a signature storm in this pattern IF it ends up going around St. Joe then my concerns for a rain shadow for the warm season… Read more »

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Humey, did you get your farm welfare check yet?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Got the Spring check yesterday matter of fact, thanks to your hero Donald J. Trump who saved my farm from those Damn Chinese that kept buying all my beans and corn.

Nate
Guest
Nate

I don’t really understand how a guy from Hume, Mo and a “Farmer” could be such a flaming progressive with TDS. I’ve never run into such a thing in the rural parts. Your ideology seems more like a stereotypical urban progressive. Brookside, Waldo, Midtown, etc

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

He doesnt live in Hume, nor does he farm. He is a JOCO lib

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s called an education. I received one and became enlightenened , others did not. I have staunch Conservative views as well. Funny how you think you know me or what I believe simply because I support the science of climate change and can see and spot a conman when he’s in my midst. I think independently I and value the opinions of my fellow Americans even when I disagree with them.

anshad
Guest
anshad

We need some rain. Big cracks starting to show up in the dirt. Hoping these storms whether severe or not can deliver.

Kadens Mom
Guest
Kadens Mom

First

Bentley
Guest

uhhhh… no you were not I was.

Bentley
Guest

Gary, is Oklahoma University a good meteorology school to learn?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Actually, that “tongue” on the first map looks like a middle finger. 😀 I think it’s trying to tell us something. 😀

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

i wonder what?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The 6z NAM and RGEM show most of the activity staying south of the metro. It really depends on how long it takes the cap to lift. The quicker it lifts, the more likely we get storms.

matt
Guest
matt

We still have later updates. The more warmer it gets tomorrow batter the storms will be.

Bentley
Guest

First!
Looking forward to the show tonight at 6:30! Spring into action!