Good morning bloggers,
Moisture is surging north from the Gulf of Mexico and it is forming into what meteorologists named “the moisture tongue” many years ago. The dew points can appear to be in the shape of a tongue, as you can imagine below:
This is the forecast dew point profile valid tomorrow morning, and then the map below shows how the dewpoints increase with 70°+ dewpoints forecast to surge to near the Red River Valley alone the Texas/Oklahoma border by Wednesday afternoon and evening. This map below shows the surface forecast and I plotted the fronts on there. Thunderstorms are most likely going to be generated near and just east of these frontal boundaries.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed this risk out for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and you can see how it fits the pattern I plotted above.
From the SPC:
A moist air mass will already be in place across the region beneath a well-developed EML. Resultant capping should preclude thunderstorm development across the region until the afternoon when the combination of daytime heating, large-scale ascent, boundary-layer mixing and surface convergence act to overcome the convective inhibition. Narrowing down the best location for initial development is difficult given the prevalence of surface boundaries. Initiation is also possible within the open warm sector. Once convective initiation occurs, quick and strong updraft development is anticipated, with the potential for very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter). Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected into the evening as large-scale ascent strengthens and the entire system shifts eastward. Primary severe threat is large hail. A tornado threat exists, but weakness in the flow between 850 and 700 mb (resulting from the preceding shortwave trough and overall positive tilt of the upper trough) cast some doubt towards the robustness of low-level mesocyclone organization. Damaging wind gusts are also likely, particularly later in the period as a convective line organizes along the front.
This storm fits the “blizzard part of the LRC” perfectly. And, it is right on schedule and predicted to arrive this week. This storm is also directly related to the beginning of this years pattern in October; the january 12th nearly one foot snowstorm in KC (11 inches fell in Olathe). This storm has produced significant precipitation in all four previous cycles. The fifth LRC cycle begins Wednesday night into Thursday.
Let’s see how this sets up. I have the rest of the day off, after my radio hit on Sports Radio 810 WHB in a few minutes. Have a great day, and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.