Looking Into The Mid-Week Storm

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Good morning bloggers

Severe weather season is now underway and we just had an active two days. Take a look at the severe weather reports from Saturday and Sunday:

190413_rpts

yesterday_filtered

There were 33 tornado reports Saturday and then 2 yesterday with mostly wind damage reports on Sunday.  Another storm is approaching and there will be surge of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico:

1

2

60°+ dew points are going to surge into eastern and central Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday. The main surface storm is more likely going to form over western Oklahoma with a dry line moving out over southwestern Oklahoma. This will lead to a higher severe weather risk south of KC.  For Kansas City, thunderstorms are likely in this set up with a slight risk of severe weather, and again the main risk will more likely be farther south.  Let’s see how the models trend today. Here is the look from the SPC:

day3otlk_0730

From The SPC:  As low-level moisture spreads gradually northward on southerly flow
   ahead of the advancing storm system, steep lapse rates associated
   with eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer will result in
   development of a moderately unstable but capped warm sector.  

   Capping should hinder convective development -- particularly over
   the southern Plains -- until late afternoon, but expect storms to
   eventually develop along the cold front, and southward along an
   eastward-mixing dryline as ascent increases in advance of the
   strengthening upper system.

   With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
   advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
   the area by afternoon.  As such, developing storms will likely
   become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
   large hail likely to be the primary severe risk.  Greatest risk for
   the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
   the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
   layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico. 
   Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
   two cannot be ruled out.  Convection will continue overnight --
   spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
   should gradually diminish overnight.

Expect a big warm up the next two days.  We will narrow in on these risks later today into Tuesday,  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Matt
Guest
Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Might of expand more into KS Slight Risk.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Also it’s just getting on shore the Storm. At moment Wichita 40% chance of seining a Tornado. Also up by Warm front to.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Looks like a PAPA POOF special on Wednesday.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

So we’re going to do POOF’s for rain events too? This should be fun.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I think he’s going to show up for severe weather outbreaks.

Matt
Guest
Matt

None of the stations are predicting poof.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

I’ll cheer you on in the spring time, big papa. We don’t need severe weather.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This is a bit off topic maybe but driving yesterday they have this campaign that this is workzone saftey awarness week in Kansas. Apparently last year there were 59 fatalities in work zones. I found this interesting that today we love to blame so many accidents on distracted driving. I do admit distracted driving is a huge factor, but when you crunch the numbers that there were 406 traffic fatalities in 2018, and of those 59 were in workzones, that means that almost 15% of fatalities were in workzones. Maybe a good topic for regulators and lawmakers would be increasing… Read more »

ICT->MHK
Guest
ICT->MHK

I’m getting real antsy… I am patiently awaiting storm chasing season (again) and it seems like it is off to yet another disappointing, late start. Last year saw just one big day in early May for Kansas. The past years before that have been slow as well. This system showed up on the Storm Prediction Center’s 5 day outlook on Saturday, and then yesterday it looked even better. And now today it seems that all of the action will be in Oklahoma and we’re stuck between two Low pressure systems and will just get a damaging wind event (if that)…..… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Trump

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Does my hotheaded brother wake up in the morning having wet his pants with thoughts of Donald Trump?

SAD!

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It must make him insanely jealous if he isn’t exchanging love letters like those from a murderous dictator.
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/06/654857533/opinion-donald-trump-fell-in-love-with-kim-jong-un
Trump said, “And we’d (Trump & Kim Jong Un) go back and forth. And then we fell in love. OK? No, really. He wrote me beautiful letters. And they’re great letters. We fell in love”

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

You clearly haven’t figured out how to deal with egotisical dictators….sometimes you have to hug em and make em think they are special…then mabye you can negotiate with them instead of going to war. Amazing you still don’t get how that works. Of course, when Trump was doing the peace thru strength thing I bet you were screaming how he was going to start WWIII too huh? LoL

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

If you don’t like what Trump is trying to do for America then you don’t like America, you don’t like what makes America fundamentally different from all the other hell holes on this earth. You don’t have to like the man (although not sure why unless you only listen liberal media or Hollywood or other ignorant people), but no arguing he wants what is best for America, he truly loves America. But the Progressive Liberals have run over this country, it’s a major uphill climb trying to claw our way out of the clutches of the UN’s Global Government and… Read more »

Stans
Guest
Stans

Astonishing. The idiot was in the public eye for years. A known cheat, adulterer, all-around farce, and a bankrupter of businesses for all of 30+ years. Yet it is the “liberal media” who is brainwashing the left. Wow. You have a small mind, sir.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Spare us, please. Trump is ruining everything America stands for. He is a sleazy, immoral, wanna-be dictator whose only love is himself. Oh yeah, and he’s going senile too. End of story.

Kant
Guest
Kant

Its a cult. You cannot argue with cult followers. Trumpcultists are brainwashed. The majority of America sees him for what he is, a grifter.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

lol…better than waking up screaming from nightmares of Hillary, Schiff, AOC, and Pelosi

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Imagine being so utterly ignorant you aren’t embarrassed to support Trump. You must truly suspend disbelief in order to convince yourself Donald Trump possess intelligence, what can you possible see in this fool of a man?
I want to know the oranges of your love for him, the oranges are most important

Mark
Guest
Mark

It’s certainly better than the alternative.

L.B
Guest
L.B

you could easily apply your logic to yourself, I will take a guess and say you wont

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Sanders?

Becca
Guest
Becca

I am confused about how this mid week storm is related to the blizzard, snow, and early March events. Seems to be a week off. Next Tuesday’s event that is already starting to show up on models seems to be spot on for being related to the blizzard event as far as timing followed by the “bomb cyclone” event which should follow the weekend after. How is this Wednesday’s event related? It is a week off. I thought the LRC is give or take 2 days? Does the season change the spread?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

A two-days-later shift happened in mid-February. Starting with the Feb 15 snowfall, everything started happening two days later than strict LRC counting would suggest. That included the return of the “start-of-the-cycle storm” on March 3 (rather than March 1) and several other events in February and March. The snow that just missed us on Sunday is the “St. Louis snowstorm” from November. It’s two days later than counting cycles from November 15 would suggest. I think the start of the new cycle on Wed/Thurs is more in line with where Cycle 4 “should” have started. So Cycle 3 is a… Read more »

Becca
Guest
Becca

But the bomb cyclone part of the cycle is roughly a week after the blizzard/snow/wet storm and Gary said himself last month that he would expect that to return the very last week of April. If that is the case then it is happening 2 weeks after the beginning of the cycle which isn’t lining up. Of course it could happen before the last week of April since it hasn’t happened yet, but everything just seems thrown off.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Next week is the last full week of April. Not sure if that’s what he meant or not.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

This weekend was a perfect example of what modelitis can do to you. A few of the models were showing snow reaching the metro area only 48 hrs out and temperatures into the 20’s. However, it quickly faded as the later model runs came more into focus on what will really happen. It still tried to bring precipitation into the area and yet not much if any fell. A shift here or there, a slowing or acceleration as well, can impact what happens. The frustrating part of it is, you expect those that are experts to have a better handle… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Even my farm in Vernon Co was too far North for Sunday storm, at one point we were a bullseye location. We got radar echoes over the farm but no rain, it evaporated before it could reach the ground. After missing past two or three rains, its actually dry now. Fields are all being worked now and planted, so I consider my area lucky in that respect. I would say about 50% of the county will be planted by Wednesday night, every other field has a tractor out in it. Still loads of subsoil moisture, but its now too dry… Read more »

Joe
Guest
Joe

The “models” are a great way to entice folks into coming back to see how bad is it going to be for KC

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I think the SPC font got into the blog somehow, lol.

Also – did you say a few months back that you had somehow determined this year’s cycle length before the cycle started?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

First!

Kinda looking forward to some hairy spring weather. But not *too* hairy.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Same! I love some big, loud thunderstorms. Just nothing with baseball size hail or tornadoes! Lol.

Matt
Guest
Matt

An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Wed (04/17)
Strong/severe storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening, from the Iowa vicinity south-southwest into the southern Plains.
For additional details, see the latest Day 3 Convective Outlook.