Good morning bloggers,
I am in this morning, and I will be here again on Sunday as Jeff Penner gets the weekend off. Today is a rather significant weather day and we will look at the risk of severe thunderstorms over the deep south. And, then we will look into next weeks severe weather risk out over the plains.
The moderate risk area covers far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi. From the Storm Prediction Center: 0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range supporting strong tornadoes with the more dominant supercells near the axis of the low-level jet. A potential for long-track tornadoes will be possible and a regional outbreak of tornadoes could occur across parts of the moderate risk area.
The hatched area means there is at least a 10% chance of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of your location. This system is tracking far to the south, and this will have an impact on our forecast. Here was the surface map as we were about to start our newscast this morning:
Again, since this storm is tracking so far to the south, I have taken out any chance of rain in the KC metro area, and as you can see the best chance is really just out of our viewing area. It may clip Pleasanton, KS to Sedalia, MO tonight or early Sunday. This means the weather will be great today and tomorrow farther north and west!
If this storm would have tracked a bit farther north, we would have had that pretty good chance of snow. Since it is tracking farther south, the chance of snow still exists, but it is a bit lower over eastern Missouri. Farther west, we will just have some fantastic weather, and it will warm up next week. Below, you can see the new data coming showing a strong storm system developing around Wednesday night. This will trigger the beginning of LRC Cycle 5. We will be tracking this storm over the next few days, as it has the potential to produce significant severe and winter weather over the plains:
Have a great start to the weekend. And thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.