Severe Weather Risk In Louisiana Today

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Good morning bloggers,

I am in this morning, and I will be here again on Sunday as Jeff Penner gets the weekend off.  Today is a rather significant weather day and we will look at the risk of severe thunderstorms over the deep south.  And, then we will look into next weeks severe weather risk out over the plains.

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The moderate risk area covers far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi.  From the Storm Prediction Center:  0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range supporting strong tornadoes with the more dominant supercells near the axis of the low-level jet.  A potential for long-track tornadoes will be possible and a regional outbreak of tornadoes could occur across parts of the moderate risk area.

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The hatched area means there is at least a 10% chance of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of your location.  This system is tracking far to the south, and this will have an impact on our forecast.  Here was the surface map as we were about to start our newscast this morning:

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Again, since this storm is tracking so far to the south, I have taken out any chance of rain in the KC metro area, and as you can see the best chance is really just out of our viewing area. It may clip Pleasanton, KS to Sedalia, MO tonight or early Sunday.  This means the weather will be great today and tomorrow farther north and west!

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If this storm would have tracked a bit farther north, we would have had that pretty good chance of snow.  Since it is tracking farther south, the chance of snow still exists, but it is a bit lower over eastern Missouri.  Farther west, we will just have some fantastic weather, and it will warm up next week.  Below, you can see the new data coming showing a strong storm system developing around Wednesday night.  This will trigger the beginning of LRC Cycle 5.  We will be tracking this storm over the next few days, as it has the potential to produce significant severe and winter weather over the plains:

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Have a great start to the weekend.  And thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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CSCO
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CSCO

Wonder how soon the first 100 degree day will be? It cant come soon enough!!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Gary
Today’s blog writeup is on the kshb blog but not showing up here.

Rodney
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Rodney

Is it just me but the latest NAM showing 3”+ snow across central MO, European continues to show 2-4”+, FV3-GFS 4”+. I guess models are not handling this system well or am I in for an early Sunday morning surprise. No changes by NWS still saying 1” or less on grassy surfaces. Crazy how we have so much model consistency but no one is buying into them & how NAM suddenly increased totals from almost nothing to several inches. Getting up at 5:00 to 6:00 AM to see what’s happening outside. Would love to see a little snow!! Rodney (Ashland,… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Radar has quite a bit of snow! Getting any accumulations?

It’s a beautiful morning here in KC. I think I might be looking at the edge of the storm, looking east? There’s a dark area of cloud in the distance.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Severe weather outbreak on Wednesday! Let’s go!!

Brittany
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Brittany

No thanks!

Matt
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Matt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Already a Enhanced Risk for area.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

This most recent snow sure is ugly and I’m not saying that because I’m tired of snow. I guess the storm picked up a bunch of dirt and dust from Texas and dropped it on Minnesota in the form of a dirty brownish snow. Thanks Texas!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

comment image

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Yep. How did u post a pic?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

I posted a link to a jpg image, and those (as well as png images) usually show up as pictures on this website. If you open the above image in a separate page, it should show you the URL that I posted.

Adam
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Adam

Looks like my car after the sparse rain we received on Thursday. Couldn’t see anything.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Is there any kind of known cycling pattern in the Southern Hemisphere? I guess it would be resetting around now.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

There is a rainbow halo around the sun. Lookup there.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Fruit trees and ornamentals in full bloom 25 miles north of Manhattan were not damaged by cold temperatures last night, but orchards near Hiawatha were below 24° for two hours, so I don’t know how they faired.
Here’s a link to low temperatures at various places in Kansas in past 24 hours:
http://mesonet.k-state.edu/client/png/ks.min.freeze.png
Link to hours below 32°:
http://mesonet.k-state.edu/client/png/ks.32.freeze.77179.png
Link to hours below 24°
http://mesonet.k-state.edu/client/png/ks.24.freeze.77179.png

Dyl
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Dyl

Stay safe and have a plan if you happen to live in the Enhanced and Moderate Risk areas.

MikeL
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MikeL

The last storm (blizzard) trended away from our area to the north and west. Now this storm is trending away from our area to the south and east. This is our typical weather in a nutshell.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Such is life in the Midwest! I guess it was always destined to go southeast away from us. February’s event seems to have been an outlier.

We still have one, possibly two snow chances left. (return of the blizzard + october 14)

Rodney
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Rodney

NWS in St Louis indicates a narrow band of 1-2” of snow is possible from central into NE MO. Thoughts on where exactly this may set up. Euro still showing 1-3” in Columbia, Jefferson City, up through Mexico to Bowling Green areas. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Rodney
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Rodney

First

Rodney (Ashland, MO)