Wind Advisory & A Weekend Storm

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Good morning bloggers,

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Kansas City area today.  The Blizzard Warning continues up north as a major snowstorm is in progress this morning. Winter is still battling with spring, and it is winning the battle up north today. Farther south, spring has seemingly taken over, and we are paying close attention to the storm that is on the heals of this one.  Let’s discuss in today’s blog, beginning with the surface map from 10 PM last night:

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It was 76 degrees at 10 PM last night in KC and 80 degrees in Tulsa, OK.  At the same time, it was 19 degrees and snowing in Denver Colorado, where it was near 80 degrees the day before. Wow!  A cold front was blowing through the KC metro area as I was writing this at 7:30 AM, and the wind will shift to the southwest and west-southwest. The colder air is moving in from the southwest this morning:

7:30 AM Temperatures:

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It was 38 degrees in Wichita, KS and that air was surging our way.  Look at that temperature range.

The next storm system has a few questions yet to be answered.  There is a northern extension of the storm, and will there be snow mixed with the rain, or could it change to all snow?  These are the two main questions. Some of the models track this storm south of KC and some of them track it right into KC.  These next two maps are from the European Model from yesterday:

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Look at the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield in the comma head of this weekend storm.  The pink is heavy snow.  If the temperatures are above freezing, then there will be no accumulation of snow.  And, the track of this storm is still highly suspect, even though I lean in this solution above of that northern edge making it to north of KC. In the five previous LRC Cycles, this storm hit Kansas City a couple of times, and it tracked farther south in other cycles.  The pattern has been most in line with the last cycle, in February, and the storm came farther north and affected KC then, so I favor this farther north solution of the storm.  So, let’s see how the models trend this morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds this morning and becoming quite windy. The temperatures will fall into the 40s. And, then the clouds will clear allowing for a rise to near 50 degrees or into the lower 50s. The wind will shift to the west-southwest and gust to nearly 50 mph during the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect.
  • Tonight:  Periods of clouds and windy.  The temperatures will drop to 33°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny and windy.  West winds gusting to 35 mph.  High:  52°
  • Saturday:  Becoming cloudy. The clouds may move in fast enough to prevent a freeze. The clouds will act like a blanket.  If the storm goes farther south, a freeze is more likely.  Low:  35°
  • Saturday Night – Sunday:  Cloudy with rain likely from I-70 south and a chance of rain farther north.  The rain may mix with or change to snow.  It will then become sunny Sunday afternoon.  Low: 34° High:  49°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.

Gary

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EastOfEdenHeat MiserStl78(winon,mn)KurtDyl Recent comment authors
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EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Ugh. Just keeps moving southeast on every model. St. Louis snowstorm indeed. Oh well.

For months, every wintry event has appeared over us and then shifted north on the models. Including the February version of this system, which created a narrow blizzard in KS/NE/IA and gave us rain. Except this one. The one exception. Wow.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I’m just wanting some storms with rain and not just windstorms. Lots of blowing dust up here today and topsoil really dried out this month. Hoping models are wrong and we can get some good rains about once a week.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Just saw a mosquito out on the patio, don’t know what it’s doing out there, but can we hold off bug season until late June?

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Don’t worry, all the bugs will die off again once we hit freezing. 😂

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

There’s always something to complain about, I mean, the trees are starting to bud and whatnot, that could hurt them; at least it won’t be a hard freeze in Spring Hill.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I haven’t been listening to the KCMO scanner but looks like 152 highway is closed at Shoal Creek Parkway. I can only guess what may have happened there. Not sure who decided to put stop lights on a 70 MPH highway. Hope nobody got killed.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

For crying out loud there’s not going to be measurable snow on Sunday! If it snows at all it will melt on contact. In other words it will amount to JACK SQUAT!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I could sure use your words of wisdom up my way brother! Can u throw some jack squat in my direction? Plz and thank u!

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Wish I could you guys have had a rough go up there. I’m worn out just from working in that wind today, miserable! How much snow did you get out of this?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Hard to say with all the sleet and compaction but 6 in seems reasonable. News had us at 4.5 this morning before our second round. That would leave us with right at 80 in or so for the season. Half of that fell in February. Absolutely crazy!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

SNOWMAGEDON…IT’S COMING!!!!!!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Unless something drastically changes…probably something like March 30. Or December 31. Rain to snow to rain to snow to rain to snow at random times. Sometimes accumulating for a moment, then melting again. Going on for hours.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190414-1500z.html

EURO holding strong and steady, shifting ever so slightly east.

Bill
Guest
Bill

I truly enjoy your posts and your insight. I think we started blogging on here around the same time 10 years ago. But on this one, I just can’t see this happening. Both the NAM and the GFS have nothing. The cold air just isn’t there. Even the NWS has us receiving a dusting at the most.

FWIW, I am excited to follow your posts for the upcoming severe weather season!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

2017-2018 getting the last laugh with an “along and east of 35” storm.

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

We’re simply not seeing any accumulating snow in the metro this weekend. Just ain’t happenin’.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Freeze warning issued

Bill
Guest
Bill

I’m still calling for a mixed bag of precipitation with no accumulation. It would have to pour down snow to get any sort of accumulation. The cold air that was associated with this last system that caused the several inches to feet of snow got pulled away. This storm would have to not only lineup perfectly, but it would have to generate its personal cold air. There are too many ifs and we really shouldn’t even consider more than a brief dusting, if that. Those of you wishing for snow Sunday . . . I hope next winter is under… Read more »

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Bill, if you like summer, then I hope we never hit 90.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

What the heck is the NAM on (12z), I mean, seriously, 4-9 inches in JOCO, Wyandotte, Douglas, Shawnee, Franklin, Miami, Leavenworth, and Jefferson counties.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Update: 18z has a dusting at most, and a little more from Paola up towards Marshall and Kirksville.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The 💣 Cyclone is here!!!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

NAM has the snowband dead-center over KC. It seems a little weird on accumulations, though. Areas northeast of KC get a dusting, Wyandotte gets 4″, northeast Missouri west of Kirksville gets 14″? Weird shape.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

what’s with snowy Sundays in April anymore? Growing up and as young man I could count on 1 hand how many times it snowed in April. Past two years its just a regular occurrence, so now I’m just confused. KS/MO weather is never normal, just fluxing between extremes.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It used to snow in April far more before 2000. 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, and 1997 all had measurable snow in April. It’s only in the last 20 years that it has become rare (a few traces, 0.1″ in 2014, and the three 2018 snowfalls).

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Thanks for that, I am enlightened!
It’s one of those things where it can go 10+ years with nothing, and suddenly it happens all the time. I seriously doubt anybody gets whopper snow out of this, falling during daylight hours and all. Maybe somebody can squeak out a couple inches somehwere, won’t last long with Sun coming out in afternoon. Sun is getting super strong , got burned last weekend pretty good

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I have never seen anything quite like this. It was 75 Mon and I thought the storm would have issues overcoming the warm pavement. I was wrong. We picked up a very quick 4 to 5 inches yesterday and then overnight into today It has been thunder sleet. The sky became very dark and lightning and thunder were common as the sleet poured down. I must say I am more than over this winter but today as a wx enthusiast was very cool! I was called in to work in the middle of the night as we have trees down… Read more »

Sheryl
Guest
Sheryl

Very interesting, I am glad that you posted about your weather plight! Very interesting weather to be sure and I hope that spring decides to stay when it makes it’s next appearance to your neck of the woods.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx Sheryl!

sierravista
Guest
sierravista

So it looks like now, no freeze this weekend. I know Gary said 20’s yesterday, but seems likely to stay in the low 30’s, just above freezing.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Winter is coming…WHITEWALKERS!!!! Ha ha, just preparing for this Sunday, because Winter is not done…

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Reposting from the previous blog:

CMC now on board with the snow for the weekend, sort of, while the FV3’s gone back south. Euro has moved it southeast as well, though it’s still “mostly” over the metro, with my area being the place that’s missed, of course.

Imagine that. A snowstorm missing us to the south…in April.

Regardless, I feel like we could be heading for either a mild disappointment or an October Not-Quite-As-Much-Of-A-Surprise scenario.

I suppose about now is time to start looking for signs of the next cycle on models also.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Snow in April! Go snow!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

-500. Everything is blooming and many have planted gardens etc. Not funny,

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Perhaps some bugs will die?