Fire, Water and Ice..Two Big Storm Systems

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Good Wednesday bloggers,

We are tracking two storm system the next 5 days. The first one is the biggest and it is really impressive. This storm will bring high winds, a blizzard and severe weather to the Rockies, plains and Midwest. The second storm is not exactly small and will bring rain and snow from the southern Plains to Midwest this weekend.

We will spend most of the blog on the first storm.

There are a myriad of watches and warnings issued for this storm.  They range from Blizzard to Fire Weather warnings.  Our area is in a Wind Advisory as we may see gusts 40-45 mph today and Thursday.

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There is a threat of severe weather tonight from northern Kansas to southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa. These thunderstorms will be mostly in the colder air and could produce very large hail. If any thunderstorms form in the warmer air then a tornado could be produced.  It will be hard for tornadoes as there is a lack of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture.

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The severe weather threat shifts to the eastern Midwest Thursday as deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture meets a fast moving cold front. This will be more of a line with strong winds the main threat.

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Now, how does this crazy storm affect our area?

WEDNESDAY: A deep surface low will be located in eastern Colorado with a warm front, cold front and dry line emanating from it. This creates a triple point where severe weather outbreaks are born. A severe weather outbreak will not be born this time as there is a lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Now, some severe weather is likely as the set up is quite good. See above. We will be windy with high clouds and highs around 80°. Temperatures will range from 90° in Dallas to the 20s and 30s in western Nebraska. A blizzard will be increasing from Colorado to South Dakota.

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THURSDAY: The surface low will track to western Iowa as the blizzard pounds the northern Plains. We will see a mix of sun and clouds as winds gust to 40-45 mph from the west and southwest behind the cold front. The day will start with temperatures in the 60s, falling to the 50s during the afternoon and then 40s after sunset. Thunderstorms will form near the Mississippi river during the afternoon.

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FRIDAY: The storm will be moving quickly towards the Great Lakes. We will see decreasing clouds and wind with increasing sunshine.  We do have a chance for a light freeze Friday, but clouds and wind will help to keep temperatures up. Also, our hard freeze threat is dropping for Saturday as the first storm is moving away quickly, taking the very cold air with it. Also, new clouds will be racing in Saturday as the second storm moves in to the Plains. Snowfall totals may be as high as 20″ to 30″ across South Dakota and northern Minnesota.

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SATURDAY: It will become mostly cloudy and this may prevent a freeze Saturday morning. There will be a large area of rain across the southern United States with snow in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. This storm will be lifting northeast Saturday night and Sunday. There are some models that bring a cold rain (some mixed snow) in to our region, while others keep it south. We will keep watching this one.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff Penner

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EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

CMC now on board with the snow for the weekend, sort of, while the FV3’s gone back south. Euro has moved it southeast as well, though it’s still “mostly” over the metro, with my area being the place that’s missed, of course.

Imagine that. A snowstorm missing us to the south…in April.

I suppose about now is time to start looking for signs of the next cycle on models also.

Jeff
Guest

Anyone else hoping this thing keeps heading north and the cold air goes with it? Lol

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Nothing like getting woke up at 1:30 due to thunder. Quick little random thunderstorm blew through between Liberty and Kearney. There were roughly 15 lightning strikes and then done. Not much as far as rain just enough to get the driveway damp, but it was dry within a few hours due to the wind. Mid 70’s when I left for work around 4. Winds were already picking up and beginning to shift direction. Happy Friday Eve!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

comment image

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TOP&issuedby=TOP&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
754 PM CDT WED APR 10 2019
..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….

0750 PM HAIL 1 WSW CONCORDIA 39.57N 97.68W
04/10/2019 E1.00 INCH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Disappointed moisture was only ankle deep at best today with this setup. We had everything else come together for a severe weather outbreak and what I thought was going to be the first big severe weather day of many in KC this season.

Looks like we will have to wait just a little bit longer. We got awfully close today

FDRLincoln
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FDRLincoln

I am annoyed that the warm sector is capped off today. I want to hear some thunder. That said, I could do without tornadoes and damaging winds. This setup should be quite interesting when it comes through in late May with more moisture, though it could get capped off again of course.

Matt
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Matt

Same with OK.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Euro has an almost identical result (4″ snowband centered right on the city), FV3 actually has it miss us to the southeast, GFS has a bit more of a hint of snow, CMC has nothing.

Odd arrangement of models there. Usually CMC is the cold one.

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

were is the famous heat mizer

Matt
Guest
Matt

Married KSHB co-anchors Rhiannon Ally & Mike Marusarz stepping down from anchor desk; Christa Dubill & Kevin Holmes to replace them on Monday and https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0299.html

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Not surprising. It would not necessarily be because “the nature of their tough business” as Gary implied but both being away from the kids at dinner time and bed time, no matter what their jobs are. Best wishes to them. They gave it a good go !

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Wait the bomb cyclone is coming and only nine comments? Geez!

Dyl
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Dyl

Mid 80s in Spring Hill as of 4:15.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Today is really a waste of a good set up. The lack of moisture and capping will probably lead to a couple elevated hailers once that cap breaks. Wasn’t worth a chase for me today…now I’ll probably be wrong, and a photogenic cone TOR will drop later today LOL.

Three7s
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Three7s

I guess a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, even with the lack of moisture flow. If something does form what would you say the chances are of it being tornadic?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Atmosphere looks capped to me. I’d bet all the T-Storms are behind the front.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m camping out Friday night with some buddies….this is only time we could all do it so its happening regardless of cold / wind/ what have you. Just hoping wind relaxes and it’s not quite as cold as they are saying it will be.

Thermals + whiskey = doing it anyway

Ted in STJOE
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Ted in STJOE

Pretty colors on the map, but deadly….

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

There’s only 259 days until Christmas.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Second!

Chris S.
Guest
Chris S.

Wow! What a storm. Just about a little something for everyone.