Powerful Storm Begins Forming

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Good morning bloggers,

A powerful storm will emerge out over the plains by later tonight into Wednesday and then intensify into another one of those “bomb cyclones”.  As this system deepens, heavy snow will begin forming over the northern plains, and blizzard conditions are likely. Here are the watches, warnings, and advisories issued this morning:

Screen Shot 2019-04-09 at 7.03.52 AM

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The surface pressure at the center of this major storm is forecast to drop to 975 mb which is equivalent to 28.79″.  This year’s LRC already produced one of the strongest surface lows ever recorded in a similar location of Kansas a few weeks ago, and here we are again as this pattern is producing another one.  In the last cycle, a storm similar to this one around 47 days ago produced a major snowstorm as well.  We were in the middle of our snow forecasting contest at this time in the last cycle.  Las Vegas, NV had snow and this time they have a High Wind Warning.  For KC, this time it means wind as well and very little chance of any rain or snow at all from this storm as to tracks a bit farther north.  36″ of snow may fall near the Missouri River upstream and it is being monitored closely, as the snow melt will be significant once again right into the Missouri River.

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There will be some severe weather risks from this system. It will be lacking low level moisture on Wednesday, and then there will be a bit better conditions for severe thunderstorms on Thursday off to the east.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. Another great day with southeast winds 5-15 mph. High:  75°
  • Wednesday:  Periods of clouds, warm, and windy. South winds increasing to 30 mph or stronger. High:  80°
  • Thursday: Turning colder with the winds shifting to the west, and then northwest gusting to 50 mph.  Temperatures dropping into the 40s later in the day.
  • Friday-Saturday: A freeze is likely both mornings, with Saturday having some settling of the air near the ground with frost possible.  Temperatures will drop into the 20s during the mornings.

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As you can see above, this is a pretty strong freeze that is forecast to develop Saturday morning.  A freeze is possible Friday morning too, and that will be with some wind, so it won’t allow for settling of the cold air near the ground.  By Saturday morning, there is a better chance of some freeze damage.

There is another storm on the heals of this one and the models are all over the place on the track of the rain and snow. We will discuss this next storm in the next few days.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to read the comments and join in the conversation.

Gary

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Nate
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Nate

Several nights ago Gary said we need rain?? My ground is totally saturated, still extremely soggy . The last thing I need is rain

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Jeff did the blog writeup today but its only showing up on the kshb blog ?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

What’s really weird is if you look at % of normal precipitation maps from last Winter Jan – May 2018 and then look at this winter it’s almost like someone just shunted everything 500-800 miles southeast.

Johnny
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Johnny

Gary doesnt seem to be biting on that snow chance

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Euro has the snowband more centered over the metro now. FV3 picking up on weekend snow too, though it has it off to the southeast. Impressive event for so late in the season.

Edit: Both Euro and FV3 seem to have temperatures around 34 during the event.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

link?

Three7s
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Three7s

If I’m not mistaken, this would be the St Louis snowstorm that hit them at the end of the 1st cycle. If there were a snow that could get us, it would be this one due to the track. I’m still pretty confident that it will be a cold rain if it does get us, much like what the old GFS is saying.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Correct, the St. Louis snowstorm from mid-November. GFS has rain, FV3 and Euro have snow, CMC has a bit of snow to the east of here but rain in KC. Whatever it is, it will definitely be a temperature-borderline event.

Josh
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Josh

You could see the Mighty Mo flood situation last month clear back in late December and January when all along it and it’s basin, snowfall was above normal. Just like over the past 2-3 days we are seeing another flood event coming. If the amount of snowfall confirms, which it is highly likely to, whether it’s in the Dakotas to Western Wyoming, there is going to be more major to historic flooding. Hate to say it, Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, SD isn’t going to be able to hold that all back…

Ted in STJOE
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Ted in STJOE

Gavins Point holds nothing it is FORT PECK, FORT RANDALL AND OAHE that hold the water and they have been drawn down a 55kcfs releasse will be ok, but this is below the dams and on the Big Sioux and James rivers w/ no flood control.

Frankie
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Frankie

What are our chances of rain or storms tomorrow night?

Dyl
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Dyl

What the **** is the Euro on today, seriously, 3-6 inches of SNOW metro-wide this weekend, doubt it will happen though.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Whatever it’s on, I want some, lol.

f00dl3
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f00dl3
Bob
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Bob

“In the last cycle, a storm similar to this one around 47 days ago produced a major snowstorm as well. We were in the middle of our snow forecasting contest at this time in the last cycle. Las Vegas, NV had snow and this time they have a High Wind Warning. For KC, this time it means wind as well and very little chance of any rain or snow at all from this storm as to tracks a bit farther north. ”

How does the cycle predict anything if once it cycles through the weather is different?

Three7s
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Three7s

“The same, but different.” It’s a term used a lot on this blog. I like to call it seasonal variance.

Clint
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Clint

Euro has several inches of snow here Sunday. I thought we were done for the year but not so fast.

Bill
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Bill

I have a hard time seeing any accumulation after several days of mid-70s to low-80s. Also, looking ahead, the gulf looks like it will be open for business beginning late next week.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Why such a hard time seeing it when just last year we went from three consecutive days of 80+ into snow? It was pretty minimal, it’s true, but it did accumulate to a dusting, at least in Platte County, and was followed by the latest subfreezing high on record.

Dyl
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Dyl

Down in Spring Hill, looks to be 5 or 6 inches!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

comment image

Troy
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Troy

They certainly got the flooding part right in the outlook. I would guess the MO will have a lot a water for a while as there are several Reservoirs that need to be dumped and a Blizzard on the way.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

http://kwbe.com/featured-news/flood-notes-record-march-runoff-surges-into-missouri-river-reservoirs-corps-to-take-public-comment/

The runoff between the Fort Randall and Gavins Point Dams in South Dakota was almost twice that of the previous record for March.  As a result, the corps has significantly increased its forecast for runoff this year and expects to be sending larger-than-normal amounts of water down the Missouri River for the next several months, possibly even as late as November.

Rodney
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Rodney

Gary: What are chances of seeing some snowflakes in central MO late Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 30’s & just like a few weeks ago that was cold enough to produce some big fat wet snowflakes. Latest FV3-GFS shows this as a possibility:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019040912&fh=6

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Johnny
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Johnny

As long as the EOI is a 10, Gary and his viewers are happy

Three7s
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Three7s

Yesterday was perfect. Today is windier, but it still feels nice.

Jeff
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Models are trending slightly less cold air making it this far south which is a bit of good news I guess.

matt
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matt

That’s good.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

Wow…looks like he took all precip out of the forecast for us Wed/Thurs

A1hoops
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A1hoops

I find it rather odd that we are on the warm side of this bombgenesis low but we won’t get much precipitation out of it. I’m sure in the next cycle it will be a completely different story

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m glad – need my yard to dry out – its a muddy mess.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary when do you predict the last freeze of the season will be?

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

NE, SD, MN 10-35 in of snow .. unreal.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Don’t know if I buy that just yet. Guess we’ll c. I’m not under the watch currently and I hope it stays that way. The bigger concern will b the river rise.

Dyl
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Dyl

As of 5:45, looks like most of central Minnesota is in a watch, we’ll see if it goes over to a blz warning.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Not for me!😀

Frankie
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Frankie

Gary, when is our next chance for a severe weather outbreak??

Three7s
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Three7s

I would assume when the next cycle begins, which should be within the next 2 weeks or so, since that’s when the blizzard part of the pattern begins and things get really active.

Brittany
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Brittany

Nothing too significant is showing up on GFS as far out as it goes…at least, not in our area. It’s going out till the 25th right now…but, of course, that could always change.

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

Fascinating that this is happening again. I don’t like the chances of causing more damage to the recovering areas from the last flooding round. This could also bear more strain on the farmland and livestock. I just hope everyone is able to better protect them selves before this storm takes shape. Is it likely that this sort of storm will happen again in the next 45-50 days? Will it have bad consequences with the summer weather?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

The next cycle is a “cold” cycle, so that could be interesting, especially during the one little warm spell that every cycle has (in Cycle 5: mid-May). Hopefully this storm season is a bit more eventful than the last few!

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

1)Next cycle we will be getting into summertime conditions. It will be May and June at that point, I don’t think cold will be a problem
2)We like uneventful severe weather seasons around here! I am truly concerned about May once these strong storms have temps over 80F and low level moisture in place to work with

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I was saying that the presence of cooler-than-normal conditions could make things interesting. We could end up with a summer like 1992 or 1993.

Of course, any mention of something other than heatwaves is apparently now banned on here.

Troy
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Troy

Why do people like heat? It makes doing anything outside completely miserable. If it never got above 85 all summer I would be delighted.

Athan
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Athan

I disagree. I would much rather work in hot weather than in cold weather. It is miserable trying to do anything outside when it’s below 32 degrees.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Historically:

You want summer 1915. The highest temperature reached that entire year was 90, which happened four times: May 12, May 13, May 14, and July 14.

Other summers that mostly stayed below 90: 1889 (10 90+ days), 1992 (8 90+ days), and 2004 (10 90+ days).

Troy
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Troy

Interesting. I remember 2004 well as I had to wear a coat to go out on the lake fishing in the middle of July.

Dyl
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Dyl

Good point, last May I didn’t even get the slightest hint of a tan, because it was above 85+ almost every day. Hopefully this year we can just have a normal spring and summer.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Exactly one day the entire month was below average. How much below average? Half a degree.

Dyl
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Dyl

It was miserable. Straight up miserable.

Brittany
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Brittany

I saw a NOAA map the other day and on the map itself it basically insinuated that April/May/June were going to be below average…of course, there will be days when it’ll get to around or above 80°, but I wouldn’t b surprised if this is a cooler than normal spring.

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

Thanks EastOfEden, I’ll up vote you.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

For clarity: this storm won’t return until the last few days of May. Just realized my earlier comment was a bit too open to misinterpretation.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

1. First!
2. Next storm following this one = November St. Louis snowstorm? Someone check my math.