Major Northern Plains Snowstorm This Week

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Good morning bloggers,

A very wet April winter storm will strike the northern plains this week, and a lot of the precipitation is going to fall over the Missouri River basin, upstream of where the flooding has been this early spring.  This storm will affect Kansas City as well, and this time it appears KC will more likely have lower amounts of any precipitation from this storm.  Here is the FV3-GFS model solution for precipitation amounts ending one week from now, so it combines two storm systems:

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And, here is the GFS snowfall projection for amounts ending this Sunday:

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Most of the models are now showing 1 to 2 feet of snow upstream near the Missouri River.  A strong surface cyclone will be forming by Wednesday afternoon as you can see below.

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The surface cyclone will then move slowly across Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday:

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As this system spins by, the SPC is placing a small slight risk area over the plains ahead of the surface low:

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This system is very strong, but the severe weather potential is going to be limited for several reasons.  There will be a limited amount of low level moisture with dew points likely staying under 60 degrees, which will significantly limit any widespread severe weather risk.

After this system spins by, some cold air will arrive, and a freeze is likely by Saturday morning.  As you can see below, temperatures may drop in to the 20s all the way down to southern Kansas and southern Missouri.

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In KC, it may reach 80 degrees on Wednesday ahead of this system.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Share with us on the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation, or just read the weather discussion.  And, have a great start to the week.

Gary

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Kstater
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Kstater

FV3 has tornado parameters crazy high over NC Kansas and decently high around here Wed Evening. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=ehi03&rh=2019040900&fh=48&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

How rare is it for it to be that high?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

This one is almost funny. And this is just the 3-day NAM! Methinks summer is never going to arrive in Minnesota this year.

Being the Snow Miser, you have me to blame. 😛

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Alexander
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Alexander

Holy moley – 2.5 FEET of snow in April in Southern Minnesota.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Just had dinner on the patio. It was fantastic out!

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It looks like May 2013

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Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I worked that storm up here that year. We had trees down everywhere.

Matt
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Matt

Did it Snow then? If it does we will get Severe Weather.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

May 1-3 2013 winter storm had a similar shape on maps.

Matt
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Matt

Hopefully SPC sees that map.

Dyl
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Dyl

Dang, normally I’m a fan of 70 degree weather, but I had a really hard time sleeping last night (even with all of the windows open).

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Mother nature showing once again how cruel she can be. Current temp, 75 and sunny! Been a loooong time since we’ve felt 70s. I guess I’ll take the one day of it over nothin. I’ve seen alot of crooked snow totals being thrown around. This forecast as it appears to me is just so borderline that it makes it very challenging to predict snowfall amts. I guess we’ll see but really hoping it’s more wet than white. Well what can ya do but grin and bear it!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary what is the EOI for this evening?

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

this will not be a KUCHERA method event for snowfall. with temperatures expected to be between 31° and 34° one would expect 10 to 1 ratio perhaps even lower because of the compaction of the heavy wet snow. Fortunately, at least here there is nothing on the trees yet hopefully it is the same in South Dakota.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

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Wow 53″ bullseye now showing on the NAM. Maybe FV3 wasn’t so full of whoo hoo?

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

+ I do not see the 53 inch bull’s-eye, I do see 41.5 inches I think these things are haved… Still impressive!

Three7s
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Three7s

It won’t happen, but I’ve never seen a model with that much snow this close to an event. Pretty wild if even half of that falls.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Classic. Storm hits western Kansas, looks like it’s coming for KC, then seems to turn north at the last minute.

Or, every winter storm of 2015-2016. That was an incredibly frustrating year.

Go cheer on your heatwave, all the warmth sheeple 🙂

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

How fast or slow ill the snow melt, that will impact the potential flooding….

Spooky
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Spooky

Humey is the only troll on here.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Hi Spooky!
How’s your hateful existence going today?

Three7s
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Three7s

I don’t know if it’s possible on this blog, but it would be great if we could see who was down and upvoting comments. It would be much easier to see who the trolls are.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

^My point exactly.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I think Every body down voted that because you were complaining about down votes. You aren’t a troll because you down vote a statement , maybe your statement was just boring!
Cool kids dont care about votes anyway
Lol

Three7s
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Three7s

I really don’t care. I just thought it would be nice to see names of people voting. Obviously, everyone else sees things differently.

Sheryl
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Sheryl

Well said. I just don’t get why anyone cares whether their comments got an up vote or down vote. Grow up, this isn’t high school.

Frankie
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Frankie

Damn, so KC is getting completely skipped by this massive storm. Just a big surge of warm air, lots of wind, and then a major cool down. Wish we could have gotten some kind of excitement from such a powerful storm.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary, is the reason for the lack of low level moisture because of the low pressure moving through the southeast this week? By Wednesday when the storm approaches the southeast L is off the Atlantic coast, so why can’t we have decent moisture return by then?

Chris S.
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Chris S.

I broke down and did my first mow of the season. Was a little soft in places but not too bad. With the forecast this week I might be mowing again on Wednesday!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

My back yard in Prairie Village is still a complete swamp….

Three7s
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Three7s

Very odd that moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico would be so limited during this time of year.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think I read this pattern to kind of show that the heaviest of rainfalls this Spring and Summer will be over areas that have repeatedly gotten hit since last August. Central Iowa, Nebraska, possibly extending as far as Manhattan, KS. Seems few remember or correlate those rains in August with our LRC as Gary always says that August is still the previous year’s LRC, but I think it’s no accident that conditions created a 9″ rainfall in Des Moines ~90 days prior to the October 10″ rainfall event over central Iowa. 45 days prior there was another major flooding… Read more »

Ben
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Ben

Is April starting to trend dryer than you originally
thought Gary? I’m sitting at 2 tenths for the month and I remember talks of 10 inches for April awhile back. Should be able to get some farm work done this week if the forecast holds.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Not cool Gary! Not cool at all.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Lol! In the snow stricken areas of central Kansas one might look at that map and say, “the rich get richer”. But I know you folks have had more than enough. Hopefully it won’t materialize over your area.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

you guys just cant catch a break! Still have snow on the ground up there?
Michael

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Piles that will be here till May but most grass is showing now.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Even though the weather looks very active this week, it appears the forecast for the amount of precipitation in our area looks to be rather light in the 15 day forecast. I know things can change and anything beyond 7 days is questionable, but compared to what has been forecasted in the past few months, it appears to be quieter. I am not complaining as I could use some drier weather. Yesterday was fantastic as was much of the weekend. Of course, this coming weekend the temperatures will drop and you can blame it on me. With 5-6 soccer games,… Read more »

Jeff
Guest

I will shoulder some of the blame as well. I booked this weekend on January 1st as our first weekend to take the camper to the local lake for the first trip of the year lol.