A Week of Big Weather Changes

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Good Sunday bloggers,

The rain and thunderstorms last night delivered about .50″ of rain to most locations. East of the state line the amounts were less. A few showers and thunderstorms are lingering this morning south of Kansas City, but we are in for a mainly dry day with a mix of sun and clouds, trending towards more sun.

Let’s go day by day through the week as we are tracking a strong storm system for Wednesday-Friday.

SUNDAY: It will be a nice afternoon with highs in the 70s. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in central and eastern Missouri.

1

MONDAY: The weather will be spectacular to start the week as we make a run at 80°. The pollen will get out of control as everything will be blooming. The wind will be southwest at 10-20 mph.

2

TUESDAY:  A weak cold front will drift south into the region, so our highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. The wind will be light and there will still be plenty of sunshine. So, it will be near perfect!

3

TUESDAY NIGHT: Our next storm will begin to affect the region. A band of showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible from our region to Nebraska as warmer air heads north. This next storm is going to be strong.

4

WEDNESDAY: A strong storm will be evolving in the Plains as a triple point sets up in northwest Kansas. The “Triple Point” is where the cold front, warm front and dry line intersect. It is this intersection where we look for the development of severe thunderstorms. There is one ingredient missing for a severe weather outbreak.  It is deep Gulf of Mexico moisture. Now, that being said, thunderstorms may form out there and some severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. A blizzard will be developing from western Nebraska to Colorado. Our area will be mostly cloudy and windy with gusts from the south to 40-45 mph. Highs will be 75°-80°.

5

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The storm will be progressing east and the triple point will be moving into central Kansas. Any thunderstorms that form in western Kansas will be racing through our region at night. We will see how extensive and strong they become as again Gulf moisture will be limited. A blizzard will be ongoing from Colorado to western Nebraska to southern Minnesota. KC may be near 70° while it is in the 20s across western Nebraska.

6

THURSDAY: The storm moves east and we go into the colder air. Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and yes we could see snowflakes Thursday night. If the storm tracks farther south we could see some accumulation into northern Missouri.  Along and north of I-80 may see over 6″ of snow! 1″-4″ of snow is possible from northwest Kansas to southeast Nebraska as it stands now. It will be windy with gusts from the northwest to 40-45 mph.

7

FRIDAY: A light freeze is likely as the storm moves into the Great Lakes. It will be colder if the sky clears and/or the cold air mass is being underestimated. There is the chance of a second freeze Saturday morning, so hold off on planting.  Another storm is possible at the end of next weekend. We will have more on that in the coming days.

8

Have a great week and enjoy the great weather the next few days.

Jeff Penner

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Bill in LawrenceEastOfEdenDylHockeynut69NoBeachHere Recent comment authors
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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Happy Sunday evening Gary and Jeff and wonderful fellow 20/20 Bloggers. A late check in with rain totals from last night. We had close to an inch here in Washington Creek Valley. Had some very vivid lighting and a decent gust of wind. It rained hard and things really ran here; Lakes and pounds are flowing out overflow pipes and Washington Creek is really flowing. Things are so muddy here that’ there are sections I will not be able to mow until I don’t when. That being said, I will take this mud over last August’s dust and low ponds/lakes.… Read more »

Dyl
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Dyl

Tbh, I’m kind of jealous of Dodge City’s 80 degree day on Wednesday.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

In a few days and for about 5 days afterwards, weather around here is going to be laughable.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

FV3 still broken.

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Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Other than pointing out possible storms, this model has been a joke on amounts. Going to be hard to take it serious if and when it replaces the regular GFS. When is that supposed to happen?

Dyl
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Dyl

Hopefully it’ll never replace it, although both models are just kinda meh.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It’s very good at picking up the “idea” of a storm, not so much the specifics. It was the only model to hold completely steady on the October 14 snow, for example (though, there was one model run that showed 18″ – lol).

KS Jones
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KS Jones
Emaw
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Emaw

Picked up just under .50 in Linn Valley. NWS doesn’t seem so bullish on the late week system. Looking ahead, once again, to Wednesday night – Thursday. Long range solutions continue to slow the progression of a stout western trough. The track of the associated surface low hasnt changed much, but its still looking likely that precipitation chances will develop across northern Missouri and northern Kansas late Wednesday night, focused along the warm front, with chances increasing as the surface low approaches the region through early Thursday Morning. With delayed timing, severe storm chances have decreased considerably, nearly non-existent for… Read more »

Matt
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Matt

Can change because Storm isn’t on shore yet. Somebody getting Severe Weather. Somebody Snow or Ice.

Ben
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Ben

Just a half of a tenth for rain here in Chillicothe. Not complaining though!

snow hater
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snow hater

first hahaha heat mizer snow mizer

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Will u actually contribute to this blog now that winter is over?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Why are you laughing? It actually may snow this week. I’m sure you love that.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LOL…I don’t need any more snow this season. I’m VERY happy with what we got this year…almost 30 inches!!!!