Good morning bloggers,
On this wet morning in Kansas City, let’s take a look at the developing weather pattern. The pattern will be blocking and splitting in the next few days, and this will likely lead to some rather stormy conditions as we move through the rest of this fourth month of the year.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain this morning. The rain will taper off with a cloudy sky this afternoon. There will be a light northeast breeze. High: 55°
- Friday: Some sunshine breaking out and warmer. A southeast breeze at 5-15 mph. High: 67°
- Saturday: Sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday night. High: 72°
There is a weak disturbance moving across the southern and central plains this morning. A stronger storm will move across the area Saturday night into Sunday, and then this will set up:
This map above shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us. The weather pattern continues to cycle nearly perfectly across the Northern Hemisphere from the North America, across the Atlantic, Europe, Asia, and then back across the Pacific in the westerly belt. The LRC describes the cycling pattern that sets up in the fall and continues through the winter, spring, and summer before setting back up again next October. There are other influences on the pattern, and these are just influences as the LRC continues regardless of these influences. Yes, the same pattern is affecting us now that brought us the 29″ of snow this winter. One of the influences is blocking and splitting. There is a block forming right now over Greenland and the northern Atlantic. Over the winter, the jet stream was too strong in this area and it limited any blocking. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in the process of dipping negative as you can see below:
The NAO has ben consistently neutral most of this LRC year. The AO has spent most of the past two months in positive territory. And, with El Niño, another influence on the pattern, strengthening in the past few weeks, the other forecasts that came out had predicted warm over the northern United States and cold over the southeast. These dips in the AO and NAO are interesting, and there is a visible result in the blocking forming over Greenland. How this influences the weather pattern for the series of storm systems that is perfectly on the LRC long range forecasts will be interesting. Right now, I am expecting it to get a bit wild and stormy the rest of this month with increasing severe weather risks, and some snow to track.
The El Niño forecasts failed, as you can see below:
It has actually been much colder than average over the northern United States, and warmer over the southeast. Weather2020, on the other hand, had a prediction for these colder anomalies forecasted quite well. The one big mistake I made early, and then corrected it by mid December, was the wet season in California. I had heard of a certain type of El Niño that meant dry in California, and I made the mistake to be influenced by another source. By December, we updated our winter forecast, before winter officially began, for California to be wet, and that 90 day forecast update verified. And, now here we are moving into the prime spring months, and the pattern continues, and these anomalies are continuing.
Flooding Concern for the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys:
What is this? The map above shows a rather snowy set up just north of KC. Oh, it could shift south, and we will be monitoring this closely. More importantly, and whether it is snow or rain, the precipitation is likely to fall, and it is likely to potentially be extreme for the month of April. Look at the rainfall forecast from the GFS model for the next 15 days:
Let’s monitor this closely. Our spring weather special will address these issues and we will have a forecast coming up one week from Tuesday. Have a great day!