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Good morning bloggers,

On this wet morning in Kansas City, let’s take a look at the developing weather pattern.  The pattern will be blocking and splitting in the next few days, and this will likely lead to some rather stormy conditions as we move through the rest of this fourth month of the year.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain this morning. The rain will taper off with a cloudy sky this afternoon. There will be a light northeast breeze. High:  55°
  • Friday:  Some sunshine breaking out and warmer. A southeast breeze at 5-15 mph. High:  67°
  • Saturday:  Sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday night.  High:  72°

There is a weak disturbance moving across the southern and central plains this morning.  A stronger storm will move across the area Saturday night into Sunday, and then this will set up:

1

This map above shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us. The weather pattern continues to cycle nearly perfectly across the Northern Hemisphere from the North America, across the Atlantic, Europe, Asia, and then back across the Pacific in the westerly belt. The LRC describes the cycling pattern that sets up in the fall and continues through the winter, spring, and summer before setting back up again next October.  There are other influences on the pattern, and these are just influences as the LRC continues regardless of these influences.  Yes, the same pattern is affecting us now that brought us the 29″ of snow this winter.  One of the influences is blocking and splitting.  There is a block forming right now over Greenland and the northern Atlantic. Over the winter, the jet stream was too strong in this area and it limited any blocking. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in the process of dipping negative as you can see below:

Screen Shot 2019-04-04 at 7.06.26 AM

Screen Shot 2019-04-04 at 7.06.58 AM

The NAO has ben consistently neutral most of this LRC year.  The AO has spent most of the past two months in positive territory.  And, with El Niño, another influence on the pattern, strengthening in the past few weeks, the other forecasts that came out had predicted warm over the northern United States and cold over the southeast. These dips in the AO and NAO are interesting, and there is a visible result in the blocking forming over Greenland.  How this influences the weather pattern for the series of storm systems that is perfectly on the LRC long range forecasts will be interesting.  Right now, I am expecting it to get a bit wild and stormy the rest of this month with increasing severe weather risks, and some snow to track.

The El Niño forecasts failed, as you can see below:

Screen Shot 2019-04-04 at 7.21.03 AM

It has actually been much colder than average over the northern United States, and warmer over the southeast.   Weather2020, on the other hand, had a prediction for these colder anomalies forecasted quite well.  The one big mistake I made early, and then corrected it by mid December, was the wet season in California.  I had heard of a certain type of El Niño that meant dry in California, and I made the mistake to be influenced by another source. By December, we updated our winter forecast, before winter officially began, for California to be wet, and that 90 day forecast update verified.  And, now here we are moving into the prime spring months, and the pattern continues, and these anomalies are continuing.

Flooding Concern for the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys:

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What is this? The map above shows a rather snowy set up just north of KC.  Oh, it could shift south, and we will be monitoring this closely.  More importantly, and whether it is snow or rain, the precipitation is likely to fall, and it is likely to potentially be extreme for the month of April.  Look at the rainfall forecast from the GFS model for the next 15 days:

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Let’s monitor this closely.  Our spring weather special will address these issues and we will have a forecast coming up one week from Tuesday.  Have a great day!

Gary

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EastOfEdenKS JonesTed in STJoeJhawk95TED in StJoe Recent comment authors
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EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

0z models on the way out now…

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Sill know rayne -%willc

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

It was a relatively dry month out in central and western Kansas, WU reports Russell had less than .50″ for March, Salina under one inch. Models are being ridiculous with snow, storms too far north for cold to build in with moisture in Kansas.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

FV3 seems to think it’s a 1996 October Surprise scenario – precipitation causing temperatures to drop *just* enough.
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TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

the event will create its own cold air. Particularly if it arrives at night or in the late evening overnight the probabilities increase even more when it will not have to fight the sunshine. It often happens that we are forecasted to have rain and 35° and it ends up being snow and 33°. This could very well be one of those scenarios. It will be a very fine line that will be crossing. Son will be out to the North Northwest and 45° and then a raging snowstorm hundred and 50 miles to the south southeast.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

GFS went north, CMC went wayyyy north, FV3 went south and probably looks most realistic total-wise, waiting on Euro now.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I believe the issue is that Gary does make the accurate predictions, but those detailed and specific predictions you would like to see are available through his services you have to pay for – the Weather2020 LRC services or subscriptions. I’m guessing he’d undercut his business if he provided very specific long range details/forecasts on the blog itself. It would be nice if Gary could provide an example of what you get with the LRC paid services; for example, real screen shots or images from what a paying customer would have received 1 year ago, that wouldn’t be valid anymore… Read more »

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

Hmm. Well my reply was to someone else’s posts that have been removed. It has lost it’s context now. Oh well.

Spooky
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Spooky

That makes sense. Maybe Gary should say that here.

The title of this blog is case and point. There are no specifics given to support the blog title.

But Humey is the new mower mike, only from the Lawrence lib side.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

He doesn’t even farm. He has someone do all the work. The dude lives in JoCo

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

I just want to know when we can expect the first 80 degree day! I see it nowhere in any long range forecast. I WANT MY 80’S!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m not sure what others think, but I’m thinking we probably won’t see 80 until May. The clear, distinctive temperature profile of the 2018-2019 LRC isn’t that it’s exceptionally cold: it’s that it never really gets warm.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Perhaps, sorry to say, well into May. Why some forecasters out there still expect a below average Tornado season especially in this part of the country. The mid-south, southeast however is a totally different matter.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

The latest first 80 on record was May 21, 1904. I don’t think we’ll break it, but given this past winter, it’s definitely possible. If we fall short of breaking that record, it will probably happen around the 15th of May, when the warm spell that broke the sub-65 streak returns.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Memorial Day weekend perhaps? Remember it was a strong, persistent Greenland block that in no small way led to the infamous May 2 2013 snow where we saw school closings up around Chillicothe and Trenton scrolling across local TV screens the next morning just three weeks before Summer vacation!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Heady does this exact forecast in his blogs. Every week has a forecast, way out for an extended period. To each his own, but Gary just doesn’t do it like that and makes it harder to verify.
As for Spooky, he is a troll and even a broken clock is right twice a day. He only contributes vitriol to the blog, so I’m not going to agree that is correct as he is just being hateful like his typical demeanor demonstrates

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

You’re a liberal ass clown.

I haven’t trolled anyone. However you just did. Typical liberal.

I have pointed out pretty simple concepts Humey. Try to keep up.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I don’t like the fact that you have to throw out “Typical liberal” like comments. You can oppose and not have to make “liberal ass clown” and “typical liberal” statements. This goes for everyone on here. I’m not on here calling 3/4 of you “Typical right wing extremist Trumpsters” I love this blog, but it’s an absolute shit show with it’s comments sometimes,just like the rest of society. Don’t you people know how to just be nice occasionally?

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Since when as a democracy are we not allowed to have a difference of opinion. No need for name calling, let’s respect each other and enjoy the weather blog.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

” Don’t you people know how to just be nice occasionally? ”
I wouldn’t expect that from a goose-stepping bootlicker like spooky

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m hoping late week and weekend of April 19th, 20th and 21st isn’t bad as well as Mother’s day weekend. Have some plans

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

Any chance of strong or severe storms Saturday evening?

matt
Guest
matt

Maybe if Warm front is above KC area.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

The storm midweek next week could be significant in the plains. Possible severe weather set-up, and then leaves us cold on the back end.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Boy do I hate a cold back end.

matt
Guest
matt

Means their will be some bad weather.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

So far mist/drizzle up here and brisk east wind a blowin’ a tax day snow storm……

2Doghouse
Guest
2Doghouse

So this Saturday is relatively dry. Until the evening? Just want to make sure

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Gotta love the FV3! It has 42″ near Monticello, Iowa…lol.

This storm has a really interesting look to it. It seems to have some similarities in appearance to May 2013’s “rain-snow-rain sandwich.”
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Also interesting: This was the 12z GFS on March 30! Some surprising model consistency happening.
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Mareina
Guest
Mareina

So the FV3 says that we will now be expecting snow, Gary?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Are people in Iowa sick of snow by now?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

People in Minnesota sure as hell are!!!!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I was wondering if you were gonna chime in on that. 😛

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Given the Des Moines river was a 2 mile wide freaking lake a couple of weeks ago I’d say YES.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First! There are now multiple models bringing in colder air on Friday the 12th and the possibility of the white stuff. It’s still 8 days away but something to watch. I am looking forward to the nice weather expected for part of this weekend. I have several outdoor tasks that I hope to complete, however today’s rain may hamper some of that activity. Why can’t we get 10-12 days of sunny, dry weather? I know the answer, The LRC! It’s Friday-Eve!

Roger
Guest
Roger

It’s been pretty dry in most of Kansas the last 10 days or so. The last time it really rained was March 23.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

We had 1.7 inches at our house from March 27th-29th.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Consider yourself lucky!

Troy
Guest
Troy

Been wet here too. No huge rains but with saturated soil its a mess. Ground hasn’t been dry since October.