Some Rain Is Back In The Forecast

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Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City had 41 dates where snowflakes reached the ground in this wild winter weather pattern that began in October.  Here are the days that had snowflakes, and as you can see 21 of the 41 days had measurable snowfall totals:

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The first snow happened on October 14th, and the final one happened on March 30th.  It appears Kansas City has had its last snowflake of the season, or perhaps there will be one more chance as we know what this pattern has been able to produce.  The FV3 GFS had a major snowstorm, just cold enough, and on one of the signature LRC storms of the season that must be monitored closely in around week to ten days from now.  The same weather pattern will continue to cycle according to the LRC, and we are predicting a very wet weather pattern, 150% to 200% of average rainfall is likely in a few spots and this will lead to more flooding.  We are currently in the part of the weather pattern that has been a bit calmer and drier, and yet we still have chances of rain every couple of days.  Here is a look at one of the models for Thursday morning:

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This storm approaching us tonight is a rather weak upper level system, and yet it is still strong enough to produce this surface cyclone tomorrow morning.   This only looks like a light rain event, however, with around 0.05″ to 0.25″ expected.  The storm systems that will be wetter are expected as we move deeper into April. Look at the latest GFS model prediction for rainfall in the next 15 days:

gfs_apcpn_us_52

The pink shade is 2″, and then it goes up from there. This is a lot of water that will be falling and flowing into the waterways leading into the big rivers.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  These higher rain risks and severe weather risks will be increasing this month and I will go in-depth on 41 Action News tonight.  We will begin showing the severe weather 7 day forecast tonight.  Have a great day!

Gary

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EastOfEdenFrankieJohnnyHeat MiserGary Recent comment authors
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Frankie
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Frankie

Getting some pretty nice morning rain up in Northern KC. Finally starting to feel like Spring.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Peaceful light rain, very relaxing.

Johnny
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Johnny

It’s raining

Dyl
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Dyl

Since it’s safe to say that snow is now mainly done, did anybody notice how from 2-3 days out, the NAM model has snowfall forecasts within an inch, but the day before the “storm”, it either under or overcompensated and totally wacked the forecast. Hopefully I’m not going crazy, and just am wildly forgetting what happened!

Mareina
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Mareina

If I am correct the GFS is saying that we are expecting 3-4 inches of rain?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

3 to 3.5 between now and the 19th. Regardless of what actually ends up falling…it’s going to be wet.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Snow melt up north has caused Gavins Point to increase its outflow because water storage upstream at Fort Randall Dam and Oahe Dam is running low. The water release is presently 42,000 cfs. It will increase to 51,000 cfs Saturday and to 55,000 cfs next week.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

big jump north on the fv3

it was fun while it lasted 🙂

suppose we should wait a bit to see what the euro says, but I’m certainly not expecting anything spectacular. just another nonsense model from a week out.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Just checked the Euro…that didn’t last long. Rain with a few flakes mixed in, probably.

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

lol…how does one model run this far out mean any more than the previous model run?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

One model run showed snow. Well, actually two, but still. It was a fun few hours of wishcasting before I came back to reality.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ahhh…okay, so that run shouldnt have been taken seriously then.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Never mind, FV3 is back online now! It’s not over us anymore, though – instead it has the really impressive part stretching from Illinois into Ohio.

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

Gary, I thought we were going to get more information today about the Split Flow?

Frankie
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Frankie

I’m seeing a recurring theme in the blogs now…

“We will go more in depth in tomorrow’s blog!”

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

FV3 forgot to take its meds I think…lol. Just posting for comedy value!
comment image

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Would be kinda cool to get a freak big snowstorm in April, however. 😀

Troy
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Troy

Biggest blizzard I can remember happened in early April here. I think it was the late 80s maybe? I remember we had over 20 inches.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Actually, it’s really interesting what the model seems to be doing.

Here’s the temperature model for during the most intense part of the storm:
comment image

It seems like the model is guessing that the precipitation will be very heavy – heavy enough that evaporative cooling will drop it just enough to switch it to snow – and then accumulations happen because it’s heavy enough to overcome the warm ground. Isn’t this basically the scenario that led to the October 1996 storm?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Boy when did we have a heavy wet snow like this in the LRC… I don’t recall any heavy wet snow that caused tree damage this winter…. hmmmm

* Sarcasm *

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That’s the thing I’m afraid of. I really hope we still don’t have much leaf-out by then, because otherwise things could get very bad very quickly.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

If the fv3 angers u don’t look at the Euro!

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

For those who didn’t bother to look: 8-12″ widespread across metro, up to 16″ in north Platte/south Buchanan counties.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yikes, we had a very heavy snow in April 1992 after easter, about 13 inches and it flatten any mushrooms that had come up. At least most trees weren’t leafed out fully, but the Bradford pears took a hit then and the pine trees as well.

Troy
Guest
Troy

The Euro is actually pretty similar for being that far out so who knows.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Interesting how the Kuchera ratio reduces the amount when in most cases it increased the amounts. None of the other models are picking up on snow at this point. None of the other models support a colder temperature to support snowfall. I know this storm fits the LRC from a timing standpoint but Gary what are your thoughts on having colder temperatures to support snow. The graphic you posted yesterday showed the AO going negative so that would support colder air but does it support cold enough air?

Mareina
Guest
Mareina

second

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

Sounds exciting, but the flooding need some time to recede and rebuild the destruction. ;(

Kadens Mom
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Kadens Mom

First

Mareina
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Mareina

who is this