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Good morning bloggers,

This will be a quick blog this morning.  Tomorrow, we will go a bit more in-depth!  The weather pattern continues to cycle right on schedule according to the LRC, and we have a split flow, and a dipping AO index. The AO is the Arctic Oscillation, and when it is positive there is less of a chance of cold air intrusions, and when it is negative it is more linked to Arctic blasts. This has NOT been the case this winter, and is another example that the LRC is the dominant and largest piece of the cycling weather pattern puzzle.  Take a look at this index the AO Index this morning:

Screen Shot 2019-04-02 at 8.12.16 AM

The AO is now on its way down into negative territory for the first time since early February.  We will be doing a lot more analysis and have some take aways on what this may mean, or indicate, in tomorrow’s blog.  The upper level river of air, the weather pattern aloft is continuing to split:

4

Look at that system off the east coast, and the weaker system approaching our area from the west:

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Wow! That is a strong surface cyclone predicted to blow up off the east coast over the Gulf Stream.  For KC, we have some great weather for baseball tonight.  Have a great day and look for the more in-depth blog tomorrow.

Gary

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Garyf00dl3Fred SouderMattHeat Miser Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

So pretty much NAM 3KM holding strong to morning thunderstorms Thursday here it looks

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/march-2019-was-unusually-warm-across-alaska/70007863 Significant decrease in Bering Sea ice observed after record-high temps across Alaska in March By Chaffin Mitchell, AccuWeather staff writer April 02, 2019 Temperature records in Alaska were shattered in March, making it the warmest March to date for many locations in the state.”In Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow) this was the warmest March on record. March 2019 ended up averaging a whopping 18.6 F above the 1981-2010 normal average and 6.6 F above the previous warmest March on record, which happened to be 2018,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. “This past Saturday was only the third day in… Read more »

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol…I dont know, this winter seem really cold to me…call me crazy.

Matt
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Matt

It wasn’t here warm.

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

This is somewhat concerning. East of there, from Calgary and point east to the bay, they had the coldest winter on record. At some point, as the climate continues to cycle, the long-term climate will shift the coldest areas to central and eastern Canada, and Alaska and the Bering sea will remain warm on a consistent year after year basis, similar to the pre- holocene warm period. Aside from the significant changes to major agricultural belts, there is thought that this will be accompanied by more blocked flow, which will cause some areas to have increased precip, and other to… Read more »

JC Joe
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JC Joe

How about a morel mushroom forecast?

Andrew H
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Andrew H

16 KS counties now under a burn ban for the month of April. Includes WY and JO counties.
Wonder why WY and JO are included.

John
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John

When does it look like there will a full blown warm up vs this day or 2 of 60’s then back to 40

Spooky
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Spooky

Sure would be nice if this “LRC” could be used to predict something instead of being used in the past tense all the time. For example, wouldn’t it be nice to know when the severe weather setups will be for the Spring? Oh wait, that’s coming the end of April? A lot of good that will do for the first month of severe weather season. Perhaps a prediction for Mother’s Day weekend? Maybe all the May weekends? Should be way now that several “cycles “ are complete? The point being that the tool is useless if you only tout it… Read more »

matt
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matt

Up to Gary or Station to decide when Severe Weather forecast comes out. We are blow the Warm fronts for Severe Weather at moment.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

It seems we have shifted from a wet pattern to a lull right now. Corresponds with the week of mild weather between cycles.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I wouldn’t exactly call it “between cycles!” We’re coming up on the first of the two early-November snowfalls in a few days.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

Dead dead dead here here.

Joe
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Joe

The blog just ought to be called the snow blog…that’s the only time it gets traffic…that and severe weather

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

April is probably the month of lowest activity of the whole year. November to March we have winter weather…May to July is severe weather season…then August may be another dead zone, and then in September and October we have first the anticipation of and then the excitement of the LRC.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

FV3 has quite the storm for the end of next week.

I suppose to avoid a mass downvote I should clarify that it’s a rainstorm.

The GFS and FV3 have it weaker and colder, and in the case of the CMC quite a bit further north. It will be interesting to watch.

Edit: lol.

Ted in STJoe
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Ted in STJoe

It does tend to rain in April.

Bentley
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Yes, a warm day and we are ready for some baseball.

KSUstudent
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KSUstudent

This does not relate to the current weather but I’ve had this question since winter, and have just been waiting for a period when the blog calms down. Does elevation in our region affect snow totals? I spend this past winter in Manhattan Ks and while we got above average snow totals it always seemed that surrounding areas got just slightly higher totals, an inch or so. Manhattan is located just 10 miles north of I70 (about 1500ft at the exit) yet is around 500ft lower in elevation (about 1000ft by the river). We all know that elevation affects precipitation… Read more »

Mareina
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Mareina

Looks like there is an all clear zone for us no rain and no wind!

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

yeah, i cant watch the game

Mareina
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Mareina

what?

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
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Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

my sister has to do homework

Mareina
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Mareina

the royals game