Good morning bloggers,
Snow is back in the forecast for next weekend and some accumulation is likely next Sunday: April Fools! Yes, I am just kidding. Kansas City may have seen it’s last snowflakes of the season. It snowed Saturday morning and a few spots had a light dusting, and then it melted just a few minutes later. Since it is April 1st, let’s look at the March Stats.
March Statistics For Kansas City:
- Highest Temperature: 73° on March 27th
- Lowest Temperature: -2° on March 4th
- Total Precipitation: 3.29″ which is 0.92″ above average (2.37″ is average)
- Total Snowfall: 2.8″ all falling on March 3rd
- Average Temperature: 40.2° which is 4 degrees below average
The weather pattern that is cycling regularly, according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (known as the LRC), began around October 5th. It was right on that same date that the pattern suddenly became wet and it has not stopped since. As you can see above, Kansas City has had 22.44″ of rain in this years LRC, and this is 192% of average, or almost double the average amount of precipitation during this period. We are predicting this pattern to continue as we move through the spring into summer. The spring version of the LRC will continue to produce this above average rainfall pattern. If we end up with 150% of average, then KC will end up with around 21″ of rain between now and the end of June. This would lead to increased flooding risks.
Severe weather season is going to come alive this month, and it will be more likely to become quite active in last third of this month. This mid-week set up shown above has a surface storm developing with the center of the low pressure area near Amarillo by 7 PM Wednesday afternoon. A dry line is forecast to develop over western Texas, with a warm front stretching northeast of the low to near or just north of Kansas City. Moisture is forecast to be limited for this mid-week storm as you can see on this dew point forecast valid at the same time:
I circled the 64° dew point and I circled the 26° to 27° dew points just to the northwest. The dry line is a trough of low pressure that usually has only a slight wind shift near the trough from SSW winds to the west and SSE winds to the east. This is often the boundary that storm chasers will be locating and sitting on waiting for thunderstorm development. And, this year, we are predicting some fascinating dry line set ups that will move out into Oklahoma and central Kansas, and then backing up at night before surging out the next day. I am expecting many of these situations this spring with this years LRC. For this set up, there is a lack of low level moisture available. What you would like to see for increased severe thunderstorm potential is that 60° dewpoint or higher. The dewpoints are forecast to be lacking as the system develops on Wednesday. This will likely lead to limited severe thunderstorm potential in this set up. So, let’s track the dewpoints, as if that surge of higher Gulf of Mexico air makes it farther north just a few hours earlier, then the dry line could ignite with thunderstorms Wednesday evening.
We had another freeze in KC this morning. Could this be our last freeze? Did we have our last hard freeze on Sunday morning when it dropped deep into the 20s? Have we seen our last snowflakes for the season? Last year it snowed the first three Sunday’s in April I am not expecting anything like that this year
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog and sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.