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Good morning bloggers,

Snow is back in the forecast for next weekend and some accumulation is likely next Sunday:  April Fools!  Yes, I am just kidding.  Kansas City may have seen it’s last snowflakes of the season.  It snowed Saturday morning and a few spots had a light dusting, and then it melted just a few minutes later.  Since it is April 1st, let’s look at the March Stats.

March Statistics For Kansas City:

  • Highest Temperature:  73° on March 27th
  • Lowest Temperature:  -2° on March 4th
  • Total Precipitation:  3.29″ which is 0.92″ above average (2.37″ is average)
  • Total Snowfall:  2.8″ all falling on March 3rd
  • Average Temperature:  40.2° which is 4 degrees below average

10

The weather pattern that is cycling regularly, according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (known as the LRC), began around October 5th.  It was right on that same date that the pattern suddenly became wet and it has not stopped since.  As you can see above, Kansas City has had 22.44″ of rain in this years LRC, and this is 192% of average, or almost double the average amount of precipitation during this period.  We are predicting this pattern to continue as we move through the spring into summer. The spring version of the LRC will continue to produce this above average rainfall pattern.  If we end up with 150% of average, then KC will end up with around 21″ of rain between now and the end of June. This would lead to increased flooding risks.

1

Severe weather season is going to come alive this month, and it will be more likely to become quite active in last third of this month.  This mid-week set up shown above has a surface storm developing with the center of the low pressure area near Amarillo by 7 PM Wednesday afternoon.  A dry line is forecast to develop over western Texas, with a warm front stretching northeast of the low to near or just north of Kansas City.  Moisture is forecast to be limited for this mid-week storm as you can see on this dew point forecast valid at the same time:

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I circled the 64° dew point and I circled the 26° to 27° dew points just to the northwest.  The dry line is a trough of low pressure that usually has only a slight wind shift near the trough from SSW winds to the west and SSE winds to the east.  This is often the boundary that storm chasers will be locating and sitting on waiting for thunderstorm development.  And, this year, we are predicting some fascinating dry line set ups that will move out into Oklahoma and central Kansas, and then backing up at night before surging out the next day. I am expecting many of these situations this spring with this years LRC.  For this set up, there is a lack of low level moisture available. What you would like to see for increased severe thunderstorm potential is that 60° dewpoint or higher.  The dewpoints are forecast to be lacking as the system develops on Wednesday.  This will likely lead to limited severe thunderstorm potential in this set up. So, let’s track the dewpoints, as if that surge of higher Gulf of Mexico air makes it farther north just a few hours earlier, then the dry line could ignite with thunderstorms Wednesday evening.

We had another freeze in KC this morning.  Could this be our last freeze? Did we have our last hard freeze on Sunday morning when it dropped deep into the 20s?  Have we seen our last snowflakes for the season?  Last year it snowed the first three Sunday’s in April I am not expecting anything like that this year

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog and sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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DylTroyEastOfEdenMareinaREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
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Dyl
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Dyl

Can I get a “whoop, whoop!”?
comment image

Mareina
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Mareina

Now, this looks like some great weather?!! Am I right people?

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

I had to mow the yard today. Grass greener and grew a ton here this past week. That 70 degree day last Wednesday, and then the cool weekend rain really made the grass take off. Luckily the mower started lol. I hadn’t touched it till today

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Maybe I’ll try to become the most-downvoted commenter! It shouldn’t be hard, I just have to make comments that contain the word “snow.” 🙂

Three7s
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Three7s

No, it’s because you post fantasy models claiming snow chances when almost everyone here sees the writing on the wall. It’s like you’re wishcasting at this point.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

And sometimes, it’s nice to have a little imagination.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Correct: I have some originality while everyone else is blindly cheering on heatwaves.

Imagination makes life more fun.

After the nearly-constant warmth of the last few years (with the exceptions of Dec 2016 and Jan/Feb/Apr 2018), I’d love to have a cold spring and mild summer.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Why does anyone want heat waves or snow in the spring? Why don’t you want it to be 70 and sunny. Its a lot nicer working outside or enjoying activities then.

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

And my preference is to have it in the 30s and snowing in the winter and early spring, but, again, that’s just me, and I know that it likely will not happen, but I can still be hopeful!

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Hooray for global warming! With AOC explaining it, how can it fail?

Mareina
Guest
Mareina

So does this mean we will start seeing more spring weather?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Anybody watch Eric Snodgrass weekly AG forecasts? According to him the cold air source was around Hudson bay is going to move away permanently and allow Spring to really kick off starting by this weekend. Long stretch of 60 and 70s is on the way. Also pointed out the zonal nature of Pacific jet stream, it’s just rolling in shortwaves every 3- 5 days and that won’t stop anytime soon. No dry periods long enough to plant…… we need a 10+ day dry stretch pretty badly across entire Midwest and plains.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Here are my March totals for Maryville, MO. I recorded 3 1/2″ inches of snow over three events. The biggest was on March 7th with a measurement of 2″. I recorded a total of 4″ of rain over eight events. The largest total was on March 30th with 1.10″. My coldest day was the same as Kansas City, on March 4th, however Maryville was at -8 degrees! BRRRR! I have a SNOW total of 43″ for the whole season. Hoping winter weather is behind us now. Been a very active weather pattern for sure! Thanks Gary and whole weather 2020… Read more »

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

When does the bomb cyclone come back into the pattern? I thought I had roughly May 2nd. That could be an active week across Oklahoma and Kansas, and potentially into Missouri.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

late april/early may, probably just before october 14’s repetition (which was responsible for the snow chance that didn’t materialize on march 14-15)

Heat Mizer
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Heat Mizer

No April Fools joke on the blog…a little disappointed. Gary was all over that on the radio this morning. LOL

Johnny
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Johnny

Literally his first sentence was April fools joke

Chris S.
Guest
Chris S.

Has anyone fired up their lawn mower yet this season? Seems like once you mow that first time it activates the grass growing. Personally, I hold off as long as possible for the first mow.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

afraid to with the ground as saturated as it is

Mareina
Guest
Mareina

at least it will start to dry?

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Usually I would have done a short mow to get the dead grass off by now and that allows the sun to hit the live blades. I am still in a holding pattern due to the saturated ground. Pre-emergence is down, but disappointed about the mowing not done yet. Maybe this week.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Afraid I’ll sink into the ground. Haha!

Mareina
Guest
Mareina

No one wants to do that yet. Am I right?

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

My grass is really turning green fast, would not be surprised to see myself with the first mow in about a week

CactiJinx
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CactiJinx

Gary,

You ask above if this is our last hard freeze, Do you think we will get another hard freeze?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Gary (or others) – what are your thoughts on when October 14’s part of the pattern returns in the last few days of April? Snow possible? A temperature drop to near freezing would be about the same departure from average.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Serve Weather not Snow.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not even a chance Eden, the cold anchor trough in Hudson is erroding and that was the cold air source all winter and early Spring. We will be in middle 70s by next week and the warm air really starts winning battle. Forget about snow until next Fall

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

This is a warm cycle. Cycle 5 begins later this month.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Any you expect the cold version that time of year to still be supportive of snow?
No way it’s cold enough that time of year

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The LRC can at times overtake seasonal factors. I don’t think we will have any big accumulations but one more 2″ snow isn’t out of the question between April 17th and 28th.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

trough over Hudson will be long gone….. nowhere to Source the cold air from. Not a chance this year, I’ll bet you a dollar
Last year was an anomaly

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

f00dl3: Are you saying this theoretical 2″ could come from the “start of the cycle” storm? I’m not so sure. The October 14 part of the pattern was the only part that was cold enough to bring snow in Cycle 2 (early December), and the “cycle beginning” storm seems to like to take on the characteristics of the previous cycle rather than the one it begins (January 11 was barely cold enough to snow, March 3 was extremely cold – yet the cycles they marked the start of were very much the opposite).

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

REAL HUMEDUDE: It was cold enough in October. A drop to freezing would be the same temperature anomaly: about 16 degrees below the average low.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

You will be eating serious crow come late April when its closer to 80F than freezing . The storm you mention will most likely be a prolific severe weather producer, cold rain on backside prob about the worst we will see from now on.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

I didn’t have a yard, i had a lake

Mareina
Guest
Mareina

Yep

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First! There is definitely a wet pattern still in place. Not much has changed, as we are still seeing rain chances every 3-4 days. I would like a 10-12 day dry period. I still have some areas that are just swampy from the lack of chances to dry out. There is no way I would take my mower through those areas because it will just sink in the ground and get stuck.