Happy St. Patrick’s Day

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day bloggers,

The luck of the Irish is in full force today.  We are in for a mostly sunny day with a light wind and highs around 50°. The next storm arrives Tuesday and this could bring some heavy downpours.

If you are headed to the parade today it will be around 40° at 11 AM as the parade starts.

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The last time we had river flooding like this over much of the Midwest was in 1993. We did have issues in 2011, but some of these river levels are challenging 1993 levels. The new pattern sets up in October and November and then cycles through the winter, spring and summer(LRC). So, we can take a look at Kansas City rainfall from October 5, 1992 to March 31, 1993 and compare it to the rainfall from October 5, 2018 to March 17, 2019. The worst of the flooding in 1993 occurred in June and July. But, it was a wet and active pattern and since the spring/winter were wet, the ground could not take the massive spring and summer rain events. So, where do we stand as far as rainfall since October 5, 2018?

October 5, 1992-March 31, 1993 KC saw 15.73″ and so far this season we have seen 20.48″ of rain. So, we will be watching this closely as we move through the spring as the active weather pattern continues.

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MONDAY: It will be dry with clouds increasing during the afternoon. Highs will be around 50°. Also, a weak disturbance will race by tonight bringing scattered clouds and perhaps a sprinkle with lows around 30°.

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TUESDAY: A large area of rain will form in Kansas Monday night then spread east affecting much of Kansas and Missouri. The timing for KC will be from around 4 AM to 7 PM Tuesday with temperatures in the 40s. It will be close to snowing, but should be just warm enough to keep it rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This is not a big storm and it will mostly affect Kansas and Missouri. It will leave Iowa and Nebraska with rainfall amounts of a trace to .10″ and Kansas and Missouri with .10″ to 1″. This will not exacerbate the flooding, but it is more rain. So, it will not help as the ground does not get a chance to dry out. This is how long term flooding evolves. It rains every few days. Every rain event does not cause immediate issues, but contributes to the long term problem.  That is what happened in 1993. The rain events became massive in the spring and summer as warmer air holds more water. And, by the time those rains arrived, the ground was already saturated, and rivers were already high so we had the “Flood of ’93.” I flew over Iowa, from Chicago, in August of 1993 and I will never forget what I saw. Iowa looked like an ocean with the sun glistening off of the water.  I wish I had a cell phone to take the picture.

The next chance of rain after Tuesday is next weekend. It will be hard with this weather pattern to get 5-7 consecutive dry days.

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Have a great week and please DON’T DRINK/TEXT AND DRIVE

Jeff Penner

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Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I didn’t wear any green today.

Dyl
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Dyl

After Tuesday’s little cool down, it looks like we will be permanently moving on to warmer, more springlike weather. Yay! 🙂

Dyl
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Dyl

I know that this is probably a little late, but did anyone else notice how the NAM model always had the right forecast for snow (within 1 inch) from 2.5 to 2 days out, and then right before the storm, it would overcompensate and add an extra 3-5 inches of what would fall? At least for most of the storms, not all, but a good 70-80% of them. Is it just me, or did anybody else notice that?

Nick
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Nick

Well since there were levee breaks up north, our crest has been lowered in St. Joe, so hopefully everything will work out in this area for the first wave, but it looks like it may be a long spring. But since it is severe weather season, here are some weather puns… Q.what did the tornado tell the waterspout? A. Say it, don’t spray it. Q.how does a thunderstorm catch a ride? A.it hails a cab. Q.what happened to the bank after the economic storm? A.it lost a few branches. Q. why do hurricanes disrupt each other if they get too… Read more »

Dyl
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Dyl

These are the best weather jokes I’ve seen in a while! Mind if I use them?

Nick
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Nick

they are all mine :P, just kidding, feel free, I like torturing people at work with them 🙂

Dyl
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Dyl

They are so, so good. I also like to torture my friends with “dad jokes” or really, really bad puns, like these.

j-ox
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j-ox

What factors will influence whether we’ll have streams of moisture to fuel the fronts that will be rolling through May-Aug?
In drought years the fronts came through….just no moisture to tap into.

Troy
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Troy

Good comparison and stats from 1993.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I’m headed to the big parade!

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx Jeff. Happy St Patty’s day. I sure do miss snakes day!