Great Weather for Parades!

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Good Saturday bloggers,

It is a weekend without a storm which seems like forever. But, due to all of the storm systems we are seeing significant river flooding. The Missouri river may set a record crest at Atchison on Tuesday of 31.8 feet, breaking the old record of 31.6 feet set in 1993. That is saying something.

There are areal flood warnings from Wisconsin to eastern Nebraska with river flood warnings covering the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. The Mississippi river is in a flood warning all the way to the Gulf coast.

It is not uncommon for there to be river flood warnings in March as you get snow melt, rain and due to the frozen ground the rain does not all soak in. So, flooding can be a problem. What is uncommon is the amount of flooding and the record crests. This due to the endless storm systems. The next 5-7 days we are in a bit of a break, but a system on Tuesday will bring some heavy downpours. Fortunately, it is not a big storm. However, this is the same pattern, and the nonstop storm systems will start up again next weekend and last for some time.

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TODAY: We will see great weather for Snake Saturday. It will be sunny with a southwest breeze at 10-15 mph out ahead of a weak cold front. This will take temperatures close to 60°. It will be very nice out at the parade in Brookside where Gary and Sunny are the Grand Marshals. A small area of rain and snow will be possible in northeast Iowa.

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ST. PATRICK’S DAY: A weak cold front will drift by turning our winds to the north at 5-10 mph. There will still be abundant sunshine with highs a bit cooler around 50°. The front will be stalling in southwest Kansas as it becomes a warm front in response to the next storm system.

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DRUNK DRIVING WARNING is in effect in the memory of all those killed or injured in drunk driving accidents. Nathan McDuffy was killed over 20 years ago. Please DO NOT drink/text or drive.

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MONDAY: It will be another dry day with increasing clouds as our next storm system begins to form. Highs will be around 50° and you can see a small area of rain forming in northwest Kansas.

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TUESDAY: The small area of rain in northwest Kansas will grow and track slowly east Monday night and Tuesday evolving into a decent area of rain. It will affect much of Kansas and Missouri and a little bit farther north. There may be some snowflakes mixed in as temperatures will be 35°-45°. There will also be embedded heavy downpours.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: Nebraska and Iowa, upstream, will see amounts of a trace to .50″. Kansas to Illinois will see .25″ to 1″. This may not hurt the flooding, but it won’t help. Heavier amounts are possible south into Oklahoma. You know it is a wet pattern when even the small systems bring substantial totals.

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Tuesday is the one main day of rain through Friday. More rain is possible next weekend as the next storm arrives and this will start a prolonged period of active weather.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

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Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

At least we’re not adding to the flooding problem with additional rainfall.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

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Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I don’t think I’ve ever seen Lake Perry this high this early in the season.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Water on Tuttle Creek Reservoir has risen 10′ in the past three days, and it is predicted to rise more tan 3′ per day for the next few days. The outflow from Kansas reservoirs will remain at a trickle until flooding on the Missouri subsides, and if f we do get heavy rain this coming spring, flooding in the Kaw Valley will hinge on the storage capacities in the reservoirs. Water in Tuttle Creek Reservoir is currently 23′ above conservation pool level, and that is higher than it was in the third week of June 1993. On July 20, 1993… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Gary – isn’t there some kind of “oscillation” in the cycle though? Events are definitely happening later. I noticed it with the February 15 snowfall, which seemed to happen two days later than it “should” have happened. The same then happened with the March 3 snowfall as well.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Looks like a cold start to the Sunday parade at 38-39 with light breeze from north.

Dyl
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Dyl

Does anybody remember back in late 2018 and early 2019 when the deep south had a ton of flooding problems, and they were way spread out? Now it’s really just focused on the Mississippi River, and a few spots in Arkansas and Tennessee.

Josh
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Josh

Lot of people here at the Jackson county storm spotter presentation, I’m surprised. Not my first storm spotter presentation I’ve been to, but it’s been awhile. Get an Uber or Lyft. No reason to drink and drive, that’s stupid.

matt
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matt

Hopefully no Snow and just Thunderstroms.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I find it interesting comparing to two super storms of 1993 and this most recent. Very similar in power. 93 ….960mb and most recent(ulmer 968 MB) wind gust 109 to 104. Snowfall 60 to 52. Will 2019 rival the flooding of 93? I fear it will be much much worse. 100 year flood on the horizon if we receive avg to above avg rain/snow from here on out.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Great point. The two systems are close paralleles. I’m very concerned about the excessive rainfall that spring systems can bring with training thunderstorms. The setup is there for a terrible flood this year in several different basins

Dyl
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Dyl

Also a great point (real humedude), even if we don’t get way above average precip for the spring and summer months, the damage will have already been dealt. Flooding will likely be a big concern going into June and July.

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

The 1993 storm had a far, far bigger impact. It was a much larger storm and areas of the south received over 48 inches of snow. The energy dissipated by the 1993 storm was at least an order of magnitude larger than this last storm. March storms in the high planes that cause blizzards are commonplace, there just hasn’t been many in recent years.

Jrock
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Jrock

First!!!