The Same Pattern Moves Closer To Spring

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

1

We likely will not be adding to this total any time soon. As the days go by, the potential for snow accumulation will be going down. Now, we must also remember that Kansas City’s largest snowfall in recorded history is 25 inches on March 23, 1912 when 20.5″ of snow fell, with nearly 25″ for the entire storm.  Once we get past that last week of March, the potential goes way down.  7″ of snow did fall on April 8, 1983.  So, we will continue to monitor this weather pattern closely as it is cycling according to the LRC. Take a look at this storm, and how it looked in cycle 2:

Screen Shot 2019-03-14 at 8.15.18 AM

This part of the pattern in December also produced a powerful surface cyclone, just like the one that developed yesterday, and it produced a blizzard near the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  Yes, the same pattern, but just a bit different.  Look at that comparison from the early December cycle and this current one.  Pretty amazing!

After this system spun by in the second LRC cycle, a disturbance rotated around it and it produced an under forecast 1/2″ of snow as it developed right overhead. A very similar disturbance will rotate around this storm tonight. The cold air blasting in combined with this disturbance may produce a small area of snow this evening, and with temperatures just above freezing I am only anticipating a few snowflakes falling with no accumulation expected.

And, then what? A GREAT WEEKEND.  I am Grand Marshal with Sunny The Weather Dog of the Brookside St. Patrick’s Day Parade at 2 PM Saturday. The weather could not be nicer, especially considering we have not had a day 65° or higher since October 30th.  This is the longest Kansas City has ever gone under 65° and we are smashing that record.  It will be near 58 degrees on Saturday with light winds as a weak front approaches.

A WIND ADVISORY is in effect today as the winds have been gusting to 50 mph overnight into early this morning. The pressure gradient will relax later tonight and Friday and the winds will begin to calm down. Let’s look for snowflakes tonight!

We will look ahead on 41 Action News tonight. Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC and Weather2020.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

57
Leave a Reply

avatar
27 Comment threads
30 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
31 Comment authors
f00dl3SkylarJoshTED in StJoeTornado Miser Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Josh
Guest
Josh

Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, SD is what is the culprit of the increased water levels on the Missouri River. Upstream from there they have had substantial runoff to the point where they are releasing 90,000 cfs. I have saw the Missouri River flood in July during a drought. It all depends on what’s upstream, and right now there is a lot!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I guess the good news is looking at computer models no real heavy rain is forecast in the Missouri basin for the next 15 days so maybe a chance for things to dry out some at least short term. I know it’s going to get wet eventually though. Unless the LRC same but different axe comes crashing down and we go into drought.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

What are you looking at? The 6z GFs/FV3 show another 1-3” across the Midwest before the end of the month.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah but that’s like 10-15 days away we all know that can change.1-3″ is not really a big problem either – I’d be more concerned with a 3″+ event widespread.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe
Tornado Miser
Guest
Tornado Miser

it’s supposed to get back into the 60’s next week

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So if the Missouri River is already forecast to crest near record stages and we haven’t even got into rainy season yet does this mean that it’s more snow melt related and when we get to rainy season, it won’t be a problem – or does it mean we are in for truly epic flooding of a scale even greater than the 1844?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I fear the latter.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

3rd highest crest in St. joe history. My employer is right on the river too. Hopefully most the flooding stays on the Kansas side

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Aw 3 down votes LOL. How dare I wish flooding on on the Kansas side of the river lol

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

try 2

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Never got any snow in Parkville.

Also, some hour-366 FV3 eyecandy for snowlovers (just for fun):
comment image

David
Guest
David

Snowing big fat flakes in wamego Kansas just east of manhattan

C M
Guest
C M

Small snowflakes mixing in already up here in Maryville.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image
This local flooding has roughy 4,000 acres of bottom ground under water, and the vast majority of that soil is classified as Eudora Silt Loam, Rarely Flooded (one of the richest soil types in Kansas).

Dyl
Guest
Dyl

Speaking of wind…Arlington, Colorado measured a wind gust yesterday of 89 mph. I hope we don’t ever see wind gusts like that associated with any storm any time in the future.

March 13 at 15:53

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLHX.html

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

https://www.ksfy.com/content/news/Spencer-Dam-breaks-on-Niobrara-River-in-Nebraska-507141771.html

There’s a short vid of the dam breech. That’s a mess for sure.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Snowflakes down here in Lenexa

Greenhead
Guest
Greenhead

Massive flooding up in Nebraska has caused a dam to burst

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

There is a dam in northern Nebraska that holds back a river that flows into the Missouri. The dam completely collapsed and all that water is flowing into the Missouri along with all the snow they have on the ground and the flash flood warnings they have from the rain this weekend. Could make the river go higher than the 28 feet they are predicting here in Leavenworth

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

Platte River North Fork and South Fork run out into the foothills of Colorado and Wyoming and merge about 160 miles west of Lincoln Nebraska. If one of these forks is running hard hot and heavy there could be some problems that were not anticipated if it was a recent damn break. The plat has a great number of dams, I do not know if they have some sort of plan worked out if one damn or series of the dams fail.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

This dam that broke is on the Niobrara river that flows straight into the Missouri river

Jaxon
Guest
Jaxon

What occurred on the THIRD cycle?

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

dropping now 38 degrees….

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe
Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Yesterday’s forecast was 29.1 feet on Tuesday, so at least it is down from yesterday. However, I don’t know if that’s all the snowpack yet to melt plus what they release downstream yet. Also, have to wait and see how these storms cycle through with the spring into May and June. Could be first of several crests this year…

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

also might slow down their push to redevelop the riverfront lol….

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

seriously concerned about the MISSOURI RIVER the current forecast of over 28 feet crest is only topped by 1993 at 32 feet and change and the CORPS flood of 2011 at 29.97 feet.

LenexaDoc
Guest
LenexaDoc

If we get anywhere near normal precip this spring (and God forbid like 200% of average), this is shaping up to be a bad flood season. The snowpack in the Missouri River basin is insane…

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

I had a reading of 29.27 on my barometer last night and same this morning as I left for work. This old body is really feeling it. Looking forward to some warmer weather.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

So, 29.1″ of snow this season. Would be nice to add another inch, just to even it out at 30″

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

to make it an even 30 you’d need .9

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Not sure how much rain, but this wind is pretty insane.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Don’t know if anyone else is posting their rainfall amounts, but we got 1.7 inches at our house Wed-Thursday.

EDIT: Sorry, hadn’t refreshed to see your post Bill with your rainfall amount. 🙂

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

1.2″ in NW Lawrence

Bentley
Guest

Happy Pi day!

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

3.1415………

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Thursday!!! Good luck at the Parade on Saturday…so glad the weather is going to be nice!!! 🙂 My total for this storm was just shy of an inch of rain and lots of wind!!!! The rain was enough to really get things running as the ground is still partially frozen. My pond is actually now running out the overflow pipe and Washington Creek is really running. I am about to check out all the property for wind damage but a quick first look seems to show we may have made it out of this wind storm okay. An… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m still holding out for that April snow. I feel like we might be in for a surprise at some point.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Forget about your April snows, that’s SUPER rare around here. Maybe 5% chance

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Only rare in the 21st century! 1992-1997. Five of those years had measurable April snow, and the sixth (1995) had a trace.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

I mean, didn’t it snow like 3 weekends in a row last April?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

it did in fact, but not sure it snowed an 1″ of accum between all 3. Some flakes sure, but accumulating snows are indeed rare. Regionally we range between zero to the south and .2″ towards St.Joel average snowfall for April, when zero to a trace is an average I would say its in fact rare!

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

in the 60s to mid 80s April snow was almost yearly.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

congrats