A Major Storm Moves Out Over The Rockies & Into the Plains

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Good morning bloggers,

The highly anticipated storm system is now intensifying over the plains states this morning.  The pressure will drop low as low as it would be inside of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  This is a synoptic scale mid-latitude storm, a major cyclone, and it will be centered over western Kansas later today.

6:30 AM Radar:

Screen Shot 2019-03-13 at 6.28.06 AM

A large area of rain is tracking across the plains this morning. There are a few embedded heavy thunderstorms and this will track across Kansas into Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa, and extend south across Arkansas into Texas and Louisiana.  Today’s severe weather risk will shift east after severe weather struck New Mexico yesterday with tornadoes and large hail.

day1otlk_1200

The enhanced slight risk will extend from near Memphis, Tennessee south into northern Louisiana.  Here are the current watches and advisories as of early this morning:

Screen Shot 2019-03-13 at 6.14.54 AM

There is a large High Wind Warning area over the western plains into New Mexico.  Winds will gust to 80 mph, or possibly even stronger as this powerful storm develops:

11

For Kansas City, today will be a rather fascinating weather day.  We will be fully into the circulation of this powerhouse storm system with the pressure possibly getting down to the record lowest pressure ever recorded in the state of Kansas recorded history.  Let’s see how strong this storm becomes later today. One way to measure the strength of a storm is in how low the pressure gets, and the pressure may drop to near 970 mb.

hrrr_ref_frzn_us_11

This map above shows the surface forecast valid at 4 PM central time this afternoon.  This HRRR model forecast shows a 969 mb low located over western Kansas.  969 mb is equivalent to 28.61″, which I believe would be the lowest Kansas pressure ever recorded.  The circulation around this storm extends from the east coast to Southern California.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of rain with a chance of a few thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will move in later this morning and end early this afternoon. 1/2″ to 1″ of rain is likely with south wind 20-40 mph. High: 62°
  • Later this afternoon into tonight:  The sun may briefly come out before the end of the day.  The wind will increase and may gust to 50 mph.  Some power outages are likely with the winds gusting through the night.
  • Thursday:  It will be turning colder. The high of 57 degrees will be reached around midnight tonight.

It appears we will miss the snow part of this storm, and we are still sitting at 29.1″ for the season:

1

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The last 65° day was on October 30th, and this is the first time Kansas City has ever had all of November, December, January, and February without one 65° day. Last winter was fairly cold in this way as well, with only seven 65°+ days, including three 70° days, and sixteen 70° days two years ago by this time, during the same stretch.  We will make a run at 65 ° today and it may do it if the sun breaks out earlier.

Let’s monitor this together. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Skylar
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Skylar

I just got woken up to five minutes of the loudest winds I’ve ever heard. That sound is really unsettling in the middle of the night..I can’t imagine how things have been west of here.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

97mph wind gust recorded in CO Springs today. Incredible

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Blizzard footage from friends documenting it has been incredible today. Probably a once in a lifetime blizzard for the high plains

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

1.2″ in NW Lawrence.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

.55” storm total rain here in West central Independence.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

65 at 3:54PM downtown, but MCI’s high was only 61! The streak continues!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Looks like that Enhanced risk today went poof. Guess that’s a good thing. Still a powerhouse.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

26 train cars derailed in new Mexico off a bridge due to the wind…. impressive! No injuries reported

Becca
Guest
Becca

Kind of worried about trees uprooting tonight during the strong winds. The ground is so saturated. When I walked through our backyard it was like a sponge.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

It turned out to be an absolutely beautiful afternoon.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

That stripe of clouds near I-135 / Salina to Wichita – that’s where there’d be supercells popping if this were Spring right now.

craig
Guest
craig

Justin Houston…gone.
Dee Ford….gone.
Eric Berry…gone.
Hallelujah! Now we can get to work rebuilding the 31st-ranked defense in the NFL!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Per the 3KM NAM the window of concern would be 9 PM to 4 AM tomorrow morning where gusts to 60 MPH would be possible in the KC metro area. Weird because usually winds die down at night due to diurnal effects. Shows the oomph of this thing.

craig
Guest
craig

Here’s a link to an animated visible satellite.
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satellite/regional-visible/ussln

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

That thing is a monster

LenexaDoc
Guest
LenexaDoc

Garden City, KS is reporting a BP of 28.68. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a reading that low other than a hurricane. Wow!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

62 in Parkville. I didn’t want the sub-65 streak to end so soon, but it might.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Now that it’s gotten warmer with rain, I’ve suddenly got an urge for some snow. 😀

Adam Taylor
Guest
Adam Taylor

Boooo!

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

You sick bastard! 😉

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Received a message from a work counter part that is in Amarillo and they recorded a wind gust of 88.8mph. This storm is a monster!!! Sun is popping out here. Temperature is not bad but wind is picking up.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

97 mph wind gust now reported out of co springs!

Adam Taylor
Guest
Adam Taylor

Sun is out in full in downtown kc now.

craig
Guest
craig
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

MUCH higher resolution and detailed imagery here. COD is the only site with very high resolution GOES 16 data I know of. Everyone else even NOAA only has like CONUS regional sections and images are not even 1080p.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Flood what resolution do you use for the Nexrad radar?

craig
Guest
craig

Wow! That IS cool. Thanks!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I run at 4K resolution on a AOC 31.5″ monitor. (3840×2160)

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What’s up with the roads today? There’s like more accidents than some of the winter events this season today. I-35 @ 75th St has a 3-4 car wreck right now with a car blocking 2 lanes initially now off on shoulder right now.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Typical Kansas drivers…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

971 mb confirmed.

https://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/KLAA.xml

Lamar Municipal Airport, CO
(KLAA) 38.07178N 102.68745W

2 Day History

Overcast
48.0 °F
Last Updated: Mar 13 2019, 10:53 am MDT
Wed, 13 Mar 2019 10:53:00 -0600
Weather: Overcast
Temperature: 48.0 °F (8.9 °C)
Dewpoint: 39.0 °F (3.9 °C)
Relative Humidity: 71 %
Wind: North at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
Wind Chill: 43 F (6 C)
Visibility: 10.00 miles
MSL Pressure: 971.0 mb
Altimeter: 28.75 in Hg

Terry
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Terry

comment image look at this 971 mb wow

Tim
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Tim

971mb wow.. not too far off from some of the biggest.. think 1993 Superstorm was 960mb? I think its pretty remarkable considering it is THIS strong and not running near the waters of the Atlantic as a Nor’Easter.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

KCI reported 994.6 mb at 11:55 AM, and it was 1020.4 mb twenty-four hours earlier, so the drop of 25.8 mb in that timespan slightly exceeds the criterion for a “bomb cyclone”
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMCI.html

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

When this 4 day bomb cyclone storm comes back through late in April and early in May, pressure wise it may not necessarily be any stronger. By late April and early May there won’t be as much Arctic air that the storm can integrate into it, so the blizzard that is to our north will just be a cold rain and the temperature gradient will actually likely be less pervasive as in late April/early May the summer anti-cyclone has yet to really set in. End result is that the temperature gradient could be 15-30 degrees less intense.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

High wind warning

Todd
Guest
Todd

Based on the LRC, will we see this monster storm again, and if so when?

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Late Apr/early May-ish(??)

Todd
Guest
Todd

Warmer temps equal potential severe outbreak I would assume

Julie
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Julie

Not related to today… but hoping someone can help me on some future predictions – during week of May 12, what part of the LRC should we be in?

Skylar
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Skylar

The high wind warning has been extended to just west of Kansas City.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

So I did a bit of math. If that 970mb “eye of the storm” were placed directly over Kansas City, it would be the equivalent of moving the city’s elevation from 900ft to 2095ft.

Just to give you an idea of how crazy this storm is.

Downtown is currently at 998 and it has been dropping a bit more than 1mb per hour for a while now. How low will it go?

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

East side of KC here, will we even get an inch of rain from this, as CNN puts it, “bomb cyclone”??

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

https://source.colostate.edu/when-does-a-winter-storm-become-a-bomb-cyclone/

Alex Lamers March 12, 2019

What, then, distinguishes a “bomb” from a run-of-the-mill cyclone? The term was coined by famed meteorologists Fred Sanders and John Gyakum in a 1980 paper, and was inspired by the work of the Swedish meteorological pioneer Tor Bergeron. It describes a cyclone in which the central pressure drops very rapidly – an average of 24 millibars in 24 hours . . . This week’s storm over the central U.S. appears likely to approach or even exceed the criterion for a “bomb.” It may also be among the lowest pressures on record for the Great Plains.

davec
Guest
davec

CNN is reporting that 70 million people in the path of this bomb. So I was thinking about they. Sure by definition but the term it self is more hype than anything else.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It’s raining out.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded .35″ of rain up here in Maryville, MO this morning. We need some sun and dry weather soon! Muddy, yucky mess out there. My Gator is tearing the crap out of the yards. Been trying my best to keep on pavement. Have a great “Hump Day” Bloggers!
Michael

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Is this day 2 of the 4 day storm?

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

haha, no kidding

Troy
Guest
Troy

The thaw has really put a lot of water into the system. Nearby Lovewell Reservoir has came up 3 ft this week with the snow melt. Fortunately it looks like our rainfall will be 1/2″ to 1″ instead of the 2-3″ that was forecast as there was water everywhere even before the rain started.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Tornados in New Mexico? April-June will be very interesting.

S. P.
Guest
S. P.

Gary, I am wondering why next week our temperatures are forecasted to be normal, but in southern Texas, the temperatures are forecasted to be far below normal? It seems that if we are normal the warmer air would be coming from the south. I have been tracking the weather there based on the LRC and knew that the weekend would be below normal but now the whole week is pretty yucky. Just wondering.

Jaxon
Guest
Jaxon

So…what actual dates from January and December(?) and November correspond to this storm, according to gary’s theory?

I don’t recall a storm anything like this one this winter.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m pretty sure this is the storm that came a week after the sort of “opening event” of every cycle. That would be the rain on October 12 and December 1, as well as the rain-to-snow event on January 18-19. Don’t try to count it, it won’t work – seems like the cycle could be possibly as much as 6 days late now.

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Yep if your off by 2 days on the cycle length then 6 days is right.

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Grand solar minimum to blame for last 2 cool winters? Maybe si

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

I think it is quite possible but want to wait and see the next 2-3 which those who totally believe this is occurring will be the most extreme weather years.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

This is the “post-blizzard storm,” yes? Seems like the cycle has shifted another few days later!

brian
Guest
brian

Gary said the blizzard was on March 1st..Then when it fizzled, he called the storm on the third the blizzard part of the cycle….You have to wait and see what happens and when the models look to be in agreement then he will compare it to something in the past

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It had already moved two days. This is like three more on top of that.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Thank you for the write up.
I’m liking the warm temps but absolutely need this storm to scoot out, first storm in a long time that has affected me physically.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Oh man, trash/recycling collection day is going to make neighborhoods look like a landfill… I cannot stand high winds.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s the LRC – Lezak’s Recycling Cyclone!

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

ROFL…..

Mike
Guest
Mike

Where was this hurricane strength storm that affects so many states in the previous lrc?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

same storm did cycle through, but now that it is Spring time we have even more dramatic temperature inversions, which help to fuel/strengthen this system much more than in previous cycles. My 2 cents anyway.

HRRR shows this band breaking up sort of as it moves through, not a poof but not a huge rain today if HRRR is correct. I am hoping it is, I would like to see dry weather until April if I had my way.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

First