A Powerful Storm Develops Over The Plains

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Good morning bloggers,

I have been pretty busy with the KC Pet Telethon and a few other projects. The Telethon raised $125,000 for the Humane Society of Greater KC, and in my 19 years hosting the telethon with Windy, Stormy, Breezy, and now Sunny, we have raised over $2 million.  I am so proud that I have been involved in this fundraising effort.  The weather was great for the dogs and cats arriving at the event Sunday evening, and now a storm is approaching, and this is no ordinary storm.

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This storm is being caused by a very strong and negatively tilted storm coming out of the southwestern part of the nation and ejecting out into the plains:

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This map above shows the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet above the surface).  The negatively tilted trough and upper low will be ejecting out into the plains and it will help form a band of rain and thunderstorms over the western plains later tonight into early Wednesday morning. This will then blow through eastern Kansas rather fast, and the fast movement and timing of the rain may limit amounts.  Some of the models have these rain holes, or rain shadows where this powerful storm may leave a few spots with around 1/4″ of rain or less:

f5weather-24

The higher precipitation amounts our northwest Nebraska into Wyoming and the Dakotas will be in the form of snow, and 2 1/2 feet of snow are possible with blizzard and life threatening conditions:

f5weather-25

For Kansas City, our pressure will get very low tomorrow as this system goes by.  And we will see a few rounds of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms. Then, we will get “dry slotted” and the rain will shut off Wednesday, around noon tomorrow.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Rain showers likely this morning with around 0.10″ to 0.20″ possible.  A few showers likely this afternoon. Cloudy with a high of 55°.  The Dew Point will surge into the lower 50s with south winds 10-20 mph.
  • Tonight:  A 100% chance of rain, possibly heavy at times. A few thunderstorms are possible. Rainfall amounts between 0.25″ and 1.o0″ possible. Temperatures staying in the 50s.
  • Wednesday:  Morning showers and thunderstorms likely with an additional 0.10″ to 0.75″ possible, for a storm total of 0.45″ to 1.95″ likely.  High:  64°

It has not been over 64° since October 30th. It may come close on Wednesday. If the sun does not break out in the warm sector on Wednesday, then it may stay just below 65° again. This has been the longest stretch ever in KC history that it has been below 65°. KC had never gone all of November, December, January, and February without one 65° day until this LRC.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great day!

Gary

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WatcherSkylarBill in LawrenceDaveCRyan Recent comment authors
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Watcher
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Watcher

So, not much rain today here in St. Joe. Wonder if it’ll stay true tomorrow.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Happy Tuesday evening!!

Watching this storm come together is just amazing….what a powerhouse this is going to be. The snow totals from Denver to Pierre, South Dakota is just nuts (as Ryan pointed out)

What a glimpse of nature…..again…just a powerhouse…..

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

DaveC
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DaveC

Yikes, Radar appear’d to have completely fallen apart as it approached KC..

Ryan
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Ryan
Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Saint Pats in KC is looking pretty good!

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I would normally hate a cold rain as it is currently raining and we sit at 37 but right now it sure is welcome. Flood watch is in effect. I look fwd to the 40s tomorrow and washing away some of this snow pack! The low pressure out over Colorado sure is impressive for that part of the country. They have the chance to tie or maybe even break their all time record.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://wqad.com/2019/03/12/national-weather-service-warns-of-potentially-historic-floods-in-qc/

MARCH 12, 2019, BY RYAN JENKINS
DAVENPORT, Iowa – Meteorologists with the National Weather Service (NWS) in the Quad Cities say the Mississippi River could reach record-breaking levels this spring.On Tuesday, March 12, the Mississippi River sat at about 8.6 Feet, which is below the flood stage of 15 feet. By Sunday, March 17, the river is expected to reach that flood stage and continue to rise. . . Meteorologists with NWS in the Quad Cities tell News 8 that there is a 50% chance that the river could break the 1993 record, and rise above 22.5 ft.

Jason (Lawrence)
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Jason (Lawrence)

I’m not sure the +/- thing was a good idea on here. Some of the most harmless comments get down voted like crazy. Just a thought. I’m sure this will get about 15 negative votes. Haha!

Skylar
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Skylar

You’re completely right. The last time we had that option it was an even bigger problem. We’ve really been lucky at avoiding the drama here believe it or not.

Clarky
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Clarky

Just curious, on one of last weeks blog entries, Gary said we will have snow again. Do we see any snow in our future?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

No

USMCSgt
Guest
USMCSgt

Yes, in October, November or December.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

A link to river flooding in the Missouri Basin
https://www.weather.gov/mbrfc/

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Thought this was a 4 day storm. Sure has been touted as that for several days.

We’re lucky that this bomb isn’t going to produce a bunch of F5’s.

John Beal
Guest
John Beal

My prediction for the 2019-2020 winter season: average to below average temps with 31 inches of snow total. Take a look at the NAM.

craig
Guest
craig

Holy smokes, is it ever going to be windy tomorrow! And if we get that lines of storms around noon, it’s going to blow really hard.
Batten down the hatches!

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

oh yeah, something to be on the watch for right😏

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

NWS is talking about a possible Omega block developing secomd half of March, that would be awesome to get a 5-10 days of dry weather. But begs the question……how would that fit into this LRC? I know we have not had a single omega block this entire pattern, how would LRC explain such a feature coming about when it never did in any previous cycles? Same but different analogy allow for that? If so, thats a big , big wild card
We need dry warm weather so bad!

Adam
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Adam

What if doesn’t happen. 🙂

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Yes, dry weather would be nice. If this forecast holds true, our roads up and down the valley will be under water for several days. They added more than 2 feet of depth to yesterday’s prediction.
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Jason (Lawrence)
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Jason (Lawrence)

Crazy storm when you look at the big picture

Justin
Guest
Justin

Fingers cross for nice weather on opening day.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Just curious what causes the rain shadow or rain hole? I’d like to make a road trip to the area that is going to get blasted with the snow and blizzard!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I think it’s a reasonable question to ask if the LRC or models suggest any more snow.
~45 days ago there was an arctic blast. https://weather2020.com/2019/01/26/

Pam
Guest

Thanks Gary!

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

C’mon nice warm weather!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

The NOAA area discussion out of Wichita says, “surface cyclogenesis will undergo explosive development and very significant pressure falls” tomorrow evening. Now Gary wouldn’t this mean a higher risk for a severe outbreak? They are calling for high winds and renewed low top convection, I’m guessing hail would not be significant in that scenario but what about tornado’s?

matt
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matt

Yes but SPC shows no Marginal or higher Risk for KS or MO at moment for tomorrow.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not unstable enough for large scale severe weather, and we are dodging a bullet in this case as this storm is so strong it wouldnt take much. Lucky for us severe weather needs All of its ingredients to combine, 2 out 3 doesnt cut it.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Well, with 50-60 mph winds and very soft soil conditions, may see some trees come down. If some clearing occurred and highs temps approached 65-70 that could be enough to ignite a few severe storms. These dynamic storms have a way of doing strange things in Kansas…in that it might be sunny out tomorrow at 4pm with a line of storms forming from Hays down to Dodge.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

My sub soil is hard as a rock still.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

congrats on the $125,000 gary

Bentley
Guest

Yes congrats

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

First!