Two Calm Days, then a Four Day Storm

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are in for two days without precipitation and temperatures at or a bit below average. The bottom line is that we are in for two consecutive tolerable weather days. It has been awhile. The streak of nice weather will end at two days as our next storm approaches. The storm Saturday was in and out in about 12 hours. This next storm will be in and out in around 4 days!

We can see the storm evolving on the west coast of the USA. There is a piece of energy near San Francisco and another piece west of Los Angeles. These pieces will come together to become a slow moving storm in the southwest USA. They are picking up tropical moisture from the south Pacific Ocean as well, so this is going to be a wet storm.

1

TODAY: We will have periods of high clouds with highs 40°-45°. The wind will be much less at 5-15 mph as opposed to the 45 mph wind gusts on Saturday.

2

MONDAY: We are in for another nice March day as highs climb to around the average of 50°. The wind will remain light. You can see by 5 PM, the leading edge of the rain is across southern Kansas.

3

TUESDAY: The rain arrives early Tuesday morning. This day will see periods of rain, heavy at times, and a few thunderstorms with highs in the 40s. South winds will push warmer air north, so Tuesday night we will see temperatures rise into the 50s.

4

WEDNESDAY: This is going to be an interesting day as the main storm lifts out strong into the Plains. A deep surface low will be found in southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas with a surface pressure as low as 28.85″! The low will track into southern Kansas and then northeast into Iowa. It will weaken a bit as it moves northeast. A large area of heavy rain and thunderstorms (some severe) will form in the western Plains Tuesday night then head east. It will be weaker as it moves through here midday Wednesday. That being said, we could still see very heavy rain and winds gusting to 40-50 mph. The best chance of severe weather will be well south, but we need to keep an eye on this.

5

THURSDAY: The storm will be lifting into the Great Lakes, putting us on the back side. This means windy and colder weather with rain, and yes, some snow snow showers. We do not expect accumulation, but it shows we are not done with the snow.

Friday will be cloudy, breezy and cold followed by a dry and cool St. Patrick’s day weekend.

6

Here is the rainfall forecast Tuesday-Thursday for our next storm. You can see this is going to be a widespread 1″ to 2″ event for much of the Plains. Some locations will see 2″ to 3″ of rain. The heaviest totals will move around, based on where thunderstorms track. The bottom line, this is a wet storm and will bring some nice moisture to the Hard Red Winter Wheat areas of the western Plains.

7

Here are forecast totals in our area. Keep in mind two things. One, the heaviest totals are subject to change, based on thunderstorms. Two, we average 2.37″ of rain for the entire month of March. So, in the heaviest areas, all of March totals may be realized in three days.

8

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

24
Leave a Reply

avatar
11 Comment threads
13 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
20 Comment authors
EastOfEdenRich (east of Topeka)BillJeff02906 Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Jeff
Guest

I have noticed weekend temps creeping up slowly the closer we get. I think we are finally gonna break this cold cycle in the next couple weeks!!!!!!!!!! Finally!!!!!!!

Bill
Guest
Bill

I completely agree! The snow pack is eroding up north and the AO is moving to neutral/positive. Combine the eroding snow pack, higher sun angle, and longer days and we get spring! This arctic BS is over!!! Bring on thunderstorms and more importantly, patio happy hours!!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Waaaaiiiiittt for Cycle 5!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Now that it’s daylight savings time, we gotta wait another hour for the models to run. 🙁

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Good thing it’s not later in the spring. These last few systems could be severe weather setups for us if they repeat.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Happy Monday to you sir!! Hope the Telethon went well!!

This is powerhouse storm this week…..so much different types of weather it will produce….classic plains early spring storm!!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley

Mark
Guest
Mark

My yard is already like a peat bog. It can’t take any more rain.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

FYI…Thursday night’s little bit of snow = October 14!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Wait, why did he call it a 4 day storm if it’s only going to be here 3 days (Tues-Thurs)?

John
Guest
John

I think it is because the rain may start Monday night.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Yah I think the far west areas of the KSHB 41 viewing area may see a start to rain late Monday. For the immediate metro, I think it won’t be until early Tuesday morning. But it sounds more dramatic to call it a 4 day storm than 3 day storm. He is in the ratings business. But I think truly any given area will not see more than a 3 day impact from the storm. It’s a little on the shady side to call it a 4 day storm.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I’d have to agree with you Heat. Even the write up says it will arrive “early Tuesday morning” and on Thursday we’ll be on “the back side”. So really, it’s only a 2 1/2 day storm.

Early Tuesday to early Wed = 1 day. Early Wed to early Thursday = 1 day. Then it’s heading out of here the rest of the day Thursday.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

But 4 days does sound cooler 🙂

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 06z for 21th . Just for your eyes only.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

It’s over Terry

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Actually…that does line up with the January 30 cold outbreak. So I suppose it’s possible. December’s coldest temperature (14) happened just a tiny bit before this point in the pattern as well. But: Don’t get your hopes up my fellow snowlovers. This is the FV3.

Kadens Mom
Guest
Kadens Mom

Oh that map scares me. I hope it doesn’t snow anymore

L.B
Guest
L.B

we will need an entire week of sunny good weather just to dry out enough to work the soil. im not sure that’s gonna happen this year

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
L.B
Guest
L.B

That was Interesting Stl thanks for sharing

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

#GrandSolarMinimum. The next two years will be most interesting…………

02906
Guest
02906

Interesting read.

JC Joe
Guest
JC Joe

Looks like it is time to start prepping the garden!

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Agreed on that. I feel like I’m behind getting cool season greens in. In reality, it’s almost time.
I just hope it has a chance this year.