Rain, Wind, Brief Warm Up and a Second Storm

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We have an interesting day of weather as a strong storm system tracks across the Plains. We are having periods of rain and a few thunderstorms this morning with temperatures around 40°. Then, a small warm sector will race by between about noon and 2 PM. This will take temperatures to around 60° for 1-2 hours. During this time, there will be scattered thunderstorms and a few may contain small hail. Then, the cold front will sweep through, and winds will pick up to 20-30 mph gusting to 40-50 mph from the west as temperatures drop back to the 30s and wind chill values drop to the teens and 20s.

Here is the surface set up at 730 AM Saturday. A surface low was located near Russell, KS and there was a warm sector found from southcentral/southeast Kansas to Oklahoma. This warm sector will track north and be in our area for 1-2 hours around noon.

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Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector and some may contain small hail. The main severe weather today will occur from Tennessee to Mississippi to unfortunately northwest Alabama as well. It is these locations where an enhanced slight risk is found.

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SATURDAY 12-2 PM: The warm sector will be tracking northeast across the region. Temperatures will range from the 40s in northern Missouri to around 60° in KC and 65° southeast of KC. If you want to enjoy the warm air, don’t blink, as it will only last 1-2 hours. Notice, Emporia is in the 40s with 40-50 mph wind gusts. Also, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around and a few thunderstorms may contain small hail.

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SATURDAY 4 PM: The weather features are racing along and by 4 PM temperatures will be back down to the 40s, heading to the 30s as winds come from the west gusting 40-50 mph. The rain will be moving away and wind chill values will be in the teens and 20s.

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SUNDAY: This will be a calmer weather day with lows 25°-30° and highs 40°-45° under a partly cloudy sky.

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TUESDAY: Monday will be similar to Sunday with highs in the 40s after lows in the 20s. The second storm will be spread it’s first band of rain into our area Monday night into early Tuesday. Tuesday will be a rainy and cool day with highs in the 40s.

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WEDNESDAY: There will be more rain and some thunderstorms. Temperatures may jump to 60° on this day for a few hours. It will also be windy. This storm will bring a widespread 1″ to 2″ of rain across most of the Plains as opposed to the current storm that is bringing most of its rain to the east. Our area will see .25″ to 1″ of rain today and then 1″-2″ Tuesday and Wednesday. That is quite a bit of rain for this time of year.

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Have a great weekend and enjoy the 1-2 hours of warm weather today.

Jeff Penner

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Michael CasteelBlue FlashBill in LawrenceL.Bf00dl3 Recent comment authors
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Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I recorded .95” of rain yesterday it is a soggy mess up this way! Have a blessed Sunday Bloggers!
Michael

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Yesterday was the first above normal temperature day since Valentine’s day, woo hoo! Although only by 4 degrees, and now we’re back into the swamp.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy Sunday morning to both of you!!! Quite the wind storm yesterday afternoon!!! Like many others, I am very confident we are done with accumulating snows for the season; oh we may see some flakes on the back side of a storm even in early April but as far as having as any accumulation I’m very convinced we are done for this winter season. Winter did indeed go out with a bang…2 inches of snow….wind….followed by 3 mornings with lows 4 below, 3, and 7 degrees which was enough to freeze Clinton Lake up again for the… Read more »

L.B
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L.B

goodbye plain ole nasty winter. hello nasty ole spring

f00dl3
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f00dl3

What’s scary is today’s setup was actually quite similar to the 5/4/3 outbreak in some respects with the way surface features set up here. Small warm sector. If the storms fired at 3 PM instead of 4:30 AM and if the temperatures were 10 degrees warmer we’d be in trouble.

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Heck even the 925 maps look similar

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Hearing thunder in west Parkville!

Justin
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Justin

Had about a two minute heavy rain/hail/wind event earlier.

https://youtu.be/J2wkh11Sj-0

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The cold wind hit here at 11:50 AM, and the temperature dropped 6° in one hour.
Manhattan airport is reporting similar conditions.
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMHK.html

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

Here comes that warm push, temp has gone from 50 here to 55 in about 15 minutes!

C M
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C M

Getting a steady stream of moderate rain here in Maryville, even had one rumble of thunder. The road currently looks like a little river with all of the rain, melting snow pack, and already drenched subsurface.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think Gary forgot cycle 2 was warm :S I mean face it if it’s too warm in December to snow, no way the same pattern will produce snow in March. Got to wait until the cold cycle comes back around for mid April guys.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Exactly. Even the October 14 part of the pattern, the only part that was able to produce accumulating snow in Cycle 2, looks like it might miss us…maybe a flurry on the north/west sides per GFS and FV3. (March 14 evening…would be the 12th, but it seems the whole pattern has shifted by two days). There’s one other maybe bit of potential I see. The two early November snowfalls, which returned on the 15th and 19th-20th of February. They come back around April 5 and April 9. The first of the two came with a big cold blast (high of… Read more »

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

After we hit March 20th, I’ll be 100% certain that we will see no more snow.

Justin
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Justin

Looks like another busy day in the mid south.

Terry
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Terry

There will be a few chances of snow because Gary said this LRC this year is capable of doing that in March per Gary saying that and less things change.

Three7s
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Three7s

The long-range models show zero chances of snow, and they also show a warm-up on tap once we get through next weekend. Not happening.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

And those long range models are gospel? Those things are trash……although they get it right this far out 20% of time.

Three7s
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Three7s

Say what you want, but right now, the only thing you can look at are trends. The trends are showing the last cold push next week through the weekend and then a massive warm-up. I get it if you still want it to snow, but time is basically up.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

He also said this next week storm would likely have freezing rain, ice, snow, etc and he totally backed away from that. I think we could get snow mixed in or a minimal amount on the back side sometime, but I think our significant measurable snow days are probably done this season. And this from a snow lover. Can’t complain though, what an awesome, snowy winter we just went thru.

Ryan
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Ryan

When is our next chance of snow?

matt
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matt

No more Snow this year.

John
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John

Well it probably will snow again sometime this year, but hopefully it is closer to the last of November and December timeframe.

thetophat
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thetophat

This is not hyperbole and coming from a snow hater……………….second half of April thru the first 7-10 days of MAY.

Adam
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Adam

No more snow. We don’t want it any longer.