Two Strong Storm Systems Are Lining Up

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Good morning bloggers,

Winter Forecast Pattern December 1This was our vision of the dominant storm track for the winter.  This is the dominant storm track that we shared with you in November for the winter season, and now we are moving into spring.   The same pattern will continues, as described by the LRC, through this spring and summer and all the way into early fall. The first big difference as we move into later March, April, and May will be the significant shift northward of the path of snow, as the cold air gradually retreats.  Yes, it is actually beginning to warm up a bit in response to the longer days. I shared some numbers last night on the 6:30 PM newscast showing that these next seven days are 141 degrees warmer than the first seven days of March.  I added all of the highs up and it was 341 degrees in these next seven days compared to 200 degrees in the first seven days of March.  I am not sure if it really made sense to the viewers, as I was just trying to come up with something that looks positive, as we have so many cloudy and stormy days in the forecast.

So, this was our projection of the pattern based on only part of that first LRC cycle, and this is the pattern developing now, below:

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As you can see on the right, this next map shows a pattern that is falling right into place, into the anchor troughs of this years LRC.  This is not this weekends storm. It is the strong and wetter storm for next week.  This is the type of  “look” that concerns me when we get to May.  If you are a storm chaser, this type of “look” is a good one for severe weather risks and set ups, with the potential for a major outbreak of severe weather.  I remember seeing a look like this in the 2002-2003 LRC.  And, we had a huge severe weather week in May that year.  I have seen other part of this years LRC that has this look as well.  Just something to think about today.  We will project forward in our spring forecast later next month.

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These next two maps, above, show tomorrow’s storm system.  A rather powerful surface cyclone will be developing, intensifying, and ejecting out into the plains states.  As that surface low tracks just northwest of KC Saturday, we may get that brief surge to near 60 degrees after morning thunderstorms move by, and a major snowstorm will be tracking north of KC. We haven’t had many storm systems with no chance of snow in KC in the past few months. Well, finally, this is another sign of spring.

And, then we get this set up just a few days later:

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This is the mid-next week set up and that is a strong line of thunderstorms predicted to be on our doorstep next Wednesday morning.  We are now at the time of the year where we will be monitoring closely for the thermodynamic set up (surface dew point and temperature) for potential severe weather. At first glance this looks like a severe weather set up, but for KC this is early in the morning and it will be a bit cool.  Let’s keep monitoring this incredible weather pattern closely.

Have a great day!

Gary

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NickStl78(winon,mn)EmawClassyCatREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
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Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Downgraded us to a wwa. Keep sending your poofing powers this way!

Emaw
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Emaw

Baby steps Stl, I’m channeling Jack Squat for you now haha! Hang in there.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx emaw!

craig
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craig

It’s a slow day so, just for fun, I’m going to leave this right here…
The co-founder of Greenpeace calls global warming a “scam and a hoax”:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-08/global-warming-hoax-and-scam-pushed-greedy-government-scientists-greenpeace-co

David
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REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

The glaciers disappearing is a hell of a hoax. Did Copperfield make them disapppear like the Statue of Liberty?

Nick
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Nick

I think Al gore paid the indigenous peoples of the high latitudes to spread rock salt on the sea ice in the Arctic to make it melt more and more, lol

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

33 degrees…woohoo….full sunshine too!! Feels great out!!

Spooky
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Spooky

Ok, I’ll be the obvious dissenter.

341 divided by 7 = 48.71 degrees. That’s still below average.

As far as severe weather, your write up gives nothing more than generalities. I am amazed that there are people on this blog who have already bought it as some kind of forecast. We have severe weather EVERY May. I guarantee that if this year doesn’t match 2002-2003, you won’t hold yourself to it.

Spring forecast later next month? What’s the point? You have The LRC. You should be able to dial it in right now.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Amen!!! And notice no response….your statement will probably get taken down because it goes against what he says

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Well, well, Joe, lookie there. Or, maybe you should notice Gary’s response. Talk about making a simple normal time frame in a response from Gary fit your little narrative to make it appear he was purposely not responding…..egg on face dude. And was anything taken down? No. Maybe you shouldn’t pedal questionable info until you have more concrete evidence. You would make a heck of a judge.(not)…actually you’d probably make a really good seedy defense attorney.

Garrett
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Garrett

As spring rolls in, thanks to everyone who made winter a great, and fun one to track, and experience. Not that my opinion counts but if it snows ill just see it as a fluke in spring at this point. Especially in April after we’ve tasted 70 degrees, I will not want the snow at all. I typically stop watching models around this time as it doesn’t entertain me nearly as much when its rain/thunderstorms. 30 inches here in Gladstone, across tons of different systems, two different storms producing over 6 inches of snow, on top of countless clippers that… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Gary, “a significant shift northward in accumulating snow” I sure hope that is wrong! Not sure what track of systems u consider us to b in but us here in the upper mid west have been slammed (74 inches to date). I sure hope we can turn a corner. I need spring!

Garrett
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Garrett

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Not to burst your bubble brotha. Looks like you guys have another round in ya though. That bullseye right around ya.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Yeah..well aware of it but trends have been more to my nw. Hoping that continues!

Kathy
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Kathy

Wow, you answered a lot of my questions today about our severe weather this spring. For those of you who lived in KC during May, 2003, you will recall a week (beginning with the May 4th outbreak here in KC) where Eastern KS/Western MO was in a severe/tornadic situation almost every day. There are some great YouTube videos out there of broadcasts and videos of that May 4th tornado. Fortunately, my home wasn’t hit, but those close to me were (in the Northland). Gary, I didn’t watch you back then, but I’m sure you remember May the 4th and the… Read more »

North Topeka
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North Topeka

I’ll never forget the May 2003 outbreak. I was in SE KS at the time and Alma (small town N of Pittsburg) was nailed. Never forget seeing the swath of destruction. Sadly it was only a “blip on the radar” compared to the Joplin Nightmare years later. Also it was the one and only time I’ve seen a tornado first hand and I’m not a storm chaser. I’ll never forget seeing the KS Hwy Patrolmen parked in the middle of the road forcing people to the shoulder. Then looking past him, my jaw dropped and it was one of those… Read more »

Kathy
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Kathy

I have seen two tornadoes in my lifetime, both on May 4 of different years, 1977 and 2003. I was too close for comfort (blocks away) during both. I remember the sound, the swirling mass of debris, the tornado sirens, and being utterly terrified. To say I am a little concerned this year is an understatement. I truly hope that we all pay attention to watches and warnings and that our kids in school also know where to go and what to do. I think we have been more complacent recently, and I hope good meteorologists, like Gary, get the… Read more »

Brittany
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Brittany

Hopefully it won’t be that bad. Speaking for myself, I always think spring time weather will be worse than what it actually ever turns out to be.

thetophat
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thetophat

Lived on the north side of Riverside MO that day. The tornado went right over us (only time I hope I ever see inside one) then slammed into Northmoor which sounded like a bomb going off. I am still not sure this area will see anything like this but those down to the south (think OK, southern KS, MO) could be in the target zone over and over again this spring. Then comes what could be EPIC flooding this summer……………

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

While it is forecasted to rain and warm up everyone does not need to get so enthusiastic. Average normal highs this time of year are low 50s with lows in the low to middle 30s. Were getting enthusiastic about next week being in the middle to upper 40s still 5° to 10° below normal. And the lows are still the same amount below normal. That will take us through the first half of the month of March most likely something like 15° below the average 30 year norm. The severe weather is something that we can do without. I only… Read more »

Scott B
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Scott B

Come on Spring!!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Never though about looking at temps that way, very creative way to illustrate our slow but steady warm up. GFS has week of 3/18 warming up SUBSTANTIALLY. Consecutive days with highs in the mid to upper 60s……is this FINALLY Spring waking up and joining the party?
TGIF y’all

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Just discovered yesterday what’s in a goosenado besides geese….goose poo! My SUV was covered in poo after a goosenado hit me.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Lol buddy. These city folk dont know about poo-nados. That would be a hurricane of poop, now that i think about it, would be great free fertilizer if you could convince them to stay on your field for a bit. Chicken poo has been the rage in my area for fertilizer, not sure why.

Kurt
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Kurt

It grows amazng veggies especially volunteer veggies from seeds that are in the chicken waste. Whatever is in their feces makes exception fertilizer. I remember growing up we always fertilized the asparagus bed with chicken waste.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Yes city folk do not know anything. #sarcasm

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Come on, country people do know their poop compared to city people. No bullshit

Bentley
Guest

Spring is finally coming! 🙂

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

Gary do you see any more chances for more than a couple of inches of measurable snow? Thanks.

Ryan
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Ryan

Good question. I would like to know as well

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

f00dl3’s been talking about potential for a snowstorm in mid-to-late April. I’m not totally sure how likely it is. It is possible – theoretically, temperatures cold enough to support snow have reached all the way out to around Memorial Day (low of 35 on May 29, 1947 as snow fell in Nebraska and Iowa) – but it seems like a bit of a stretch. I’d love for it to happen, but we’ll have to wait and see.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

2002-2003, that was the shortest documented cycle, right?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Wow, 141 degrees. That’s pretty hot! 😛

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Yay rain!

Bentley
Guest

first