A Wet Seven Days Is In The Forecast

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

A friend sent me an email yesterday morning, or maybe it was a Facebook message as now a days the communication comes from all over the place.  A writer for the Kansas City Star wrote a story about our winter weather forecast we issued last fall and mentioned the LRC many times. Take a look:

IMG_7457

Here is the link to the article if it is hard to read here:  LRC Validation Article

The LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle, the organization to the chaos.  El Niño just strengthened in the past week with the 3.4 region rising to 1.1°C above average over the tropical Pacific Ocean.  El Niño has been rather weak all season until now, with that current rise in temperatures.  We have now been sharing examples day after day that this pattern is cycling regularly according to the LRC, and this “same pattern” continues now.  El Niño is an influence, however, and likely one of the stronger ones. There are other influences too, and regardless of these influences, something bigger is going on that ties it all together, and this is what we have been sharing with you on this blog for nearly 20 years now (I believe it is around 17 years ago when we started this blog.  As Sherry Kuehl so articulately wrote in this posted article, the winter forecast has been spot on and almost perfect for KC.  We will grade the winter forecast in April when we finally have had our last snow. Yes, it is likely going to snow again in KC. It came close to snowing last night:

Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at 6.14.42 AM

This radar map shows the snow bending north and east of KC this morning. We finally missed a storm, or did we? We may get a little drizzle from this system tonight.

Today’s 6 PM Surface Forecast Map:

1

The next wave of energy, in this seemingly relentless stormy pattern, is zipping out into the plains tonight.  As you can see above, there is a surface low forecast to be near TCC (Tucumcari, NM) at 6 PM this evening.  A warm front will be just south of KC and the little bit of snow will be located in a strip over Iowa and Illinois. Some light drizzle may develop later this afternoon near KC as this system weakens and zips by. It will then fall apart and get absorbed into a much larger storm heading our way this weekend. And, it will be followed up by another stronger storm early next week.

Rainfall forecast in the next seven days:

2

Some areas may get an entire months worth of rain in these next seven days.  In KC, most of the models have around 2 to 3 inches of rain forecast by one week from today.  As we move into spring, we are much more concerned this year for flooding, than what we were predicting last year with the drought.  There will be no drought this spring, that is for certain.  And, we are predicting a few rather classic severe weather set ups in the next two months.  I have seen a few set ups that will bring some significant severe weather risks to traditional tornado alley.  For now, the cold weather is saving our area from having an early severe weather set up, and we will be monitoring each one of these storm systems closely.  Even Saturday, there is a good chance of a surge of 60 degree air to make it north into the KC metro area after a wave of rain and thunderstorms moves by and before a cold front sweeps in.  We will go in-depth into this set up on 41 Action News tonight.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Periods of clouds mixed with a little bit of sunshine.  High: 30s north to 40s south
  • Tonight: The wind shifting to the north with some drizzle possible this evening. It will likely be above freezing while the drizzle falls, and we need to pay close attention to the temperatures and any light precipitation that forms.
  • Friday: Mostly cloudy. High:  41°
  • Saturday:  A 100% chance for rain, and a few thunderstorms are possible.  The rain will likely end before noon with 1/4″ to 3/4″ of rain possible.  Temperatures will warm to near 55 or 60 degrees briefly around noon to 2 PM before the colder air moves back in.

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

56
Leave a Reply

avatar
22 Comment threads
34 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
31 Comment authors
EastOfEdenf00dl3Heat MiserJoeInspector Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well Gary has been known to issue updated Winter forecasts in January before. A Spring Forecast half-way through Spring isn’t that out of the normal. Just surprising that with the LRC he can’t put the forecasts out say in mid-February. I mean by the first week of May we have hit 90 degrees some times. I mean 5 things are quite obvious at this point: – It will be very wet. Lots of storms and then there’s early October. – Cold core upper level lows will be a severe weather problem during the warm LRC cycles. – Flooding will be… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Based on what models are showing for the upcoming week’s rain…I’m beginning to worry that we may have many more October 2018 storms. Just from now until Thursday next week, we could have up to 3.5″, or even more.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

It’s Workin my anti snow family! It’s been trending heavier to our nw and reducing our totals. Keep working your proofing powers plz n ty!!

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Maybe Terry and Heat parents can drive them up to see some snow. They would love it

Joe
Guest
Joe

Lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

You too…Thing one and Thing two. ROFL

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The spring thaw got underway big-time in these northern reaches of the Flint Hills. Our high was 43° (45° in Manhattan), and the snow-melt is creating streams where none existed previously.

North Topeka
Guest
North Topeka

Anyone else have kids/teens in Spring soccer, baseball, softball, etc? So much for playing or even practicing outdoors anytime soon. Without a few continuous days of sunny dry weather, there’s no way the fields will dry out enough to play on.

Feel free to correct me or provide a ray of sunshine on my prediction, because this is one of the few times I actually want to be wrong.

Ted in StJoe
Guest
Ted in StJoe

It is damn windy and cutting like a knife up here at 2:30 PM.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Yep – just cold enough to be miserable!

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m not sure I like the +/- addition to the blog. I’m guessing I’m in the minority and it will show with all the downvotes on this comment. Haha

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Let’s see if we can get ^this^ comment, like, 50 down votes.

sierravista
Guest
sierravista

I agree with you, Jason.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

The only thing I don’t like about it is the down votes on comments that obviously shouldn’t receive them. I’m assuming it’s just trolling.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Gary – I think a few days ago you said there would be snow chances with this series of storms. Do you think next Tuesday’s storm will track much closer or east of here? That’s the only scenario I see us getting snow from it – if it tracks to near Columbia. Right now it shows us being in the warm sector. Models all of a sudden show our snow just shut off like someone flipped a switch.

matt
Guest
matt

It should because it’s Severe Weather season.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

I would think by the third week of April you would be delivering a summer forecast, not a spring forecast.

Severe weather season is here. We could get severe weather anytime between now and Mid-June, perhaps even later.

matt
Guest
matt

Second.

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

Hey Gary, you said you’d look into what the LRC tells us will be the weather March 22-23rd. Do you have time to do that now? My friend at work has an event planned for those dates here in Lawrence.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Big Pappa poor, snow hater and all anti snow bloggers, can u plz work your magic for us up north! I will be forever indebted to you. Thx!

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

lol

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Again, why do people hate you so much Heat Mizer? I still don’t get how every single post you make gets downvoted so much. Anyone care to explain?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Trolls…snow haters, etc. I dont even pay attention to plus/minuses

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m working on bulking up the area underneath my basement stairs. Hoping I don’t have to go down there this year, but looks like a definite possibility

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

I saw that article and can relate to the author. I was doubtful about the winter forecast in November (after 3 years in a row of boring winters), but hoping you were rightl. Since you were spot on in your forecast for winter, I am now seriously worried about this spring after reading your words in this blog entry today. The severity (F4) of the tornado in Alabama this past weekend forebodes trouble this spring! I know that other bloggers have mentioned it, but is there a date when you will give us a spring forecast?

Ted in StJoe
Guest
Ted in StJoe

A coworker came in today cursing. She lives near the city of Oregon in Holt County Missouri. It is approximately a 22 mile drive from St. Joseph downtown and fewer miles and out as the crow flies. Her and her husband had 3 inches of snow to shovel this morning before she came to work. Unfortunately due to the snow cover, she indicated, the pastures and south facing and flat areas do not have very much frost in them. She stated that they are extremely wet and she had to wear her mud boots. Another 20 miles an we would… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Winter weather is always a matter of miles in this part of the country! If only it had been a bit more south.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

thunderstorms are the worst in that respect. The biggest kick in gut is when you really need a rain bad, and a storm dumps 2″ on your neighbor 2 miles away while you get a few drops. Seen that happen many times, 1 single mile can be difference between inches of precip and nothing.

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

My coworker says this was analogous to a line of rain out thunderstorms- a cut off to nothing in 1-2 miles

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Holy floating cow is it going to flood if we get 2-3 inches of rain in just a few days.

Sherry’s post was very funny, she has some wit and charm. Very funny.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

This is just the beginning: 2019>1993.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I don’t think the perma-trough is located in the right area for a 1993 repeat, plus that year there was blocking in the SE and a trough out west. The systems this year, even though frequent, have been relatively fast moving. FYI – 1993 was also the year of the storm of the century, it occurred in March. Would be wild to see a repeat of that.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Seems like 1992 and 1993 have some odd things in common though. High precipitation, cool summer particularly west. Helena and Great Falls in Montana even got several inches of snow in late August.

Troy
Guest
Troy

For the last month we have had a trough in the West and ridge in the East which has caused the severe weather to our SE and all the snow here. Precip wise the Oct 1 to Mar 7th period this year is just slightly behind 1992-93 as the second wettest on record but if the forecast is correct we will be back in first place again by early next week. At KCI its their wettest year over this same time. I don’t know if we will get the massive rains in July this year like ’93 but there are… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Let’s see if we can have fun with this.
The last 3 days I have noticed 6 large flocks of geese flying north and north west. What’s the chance of something severe to south of us?
Or
Another reason?

Troy
Guest
Troy

Its spring and they are late moving North due to the weather. Usually we have millions of snow geese here by the first of March but they are just starting to show up.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Cool, thank you
The last couple of storms I noticed them flying around weather. I don’t really know migration pattern or if they dodge incoming storms.
I was trying to liken them to persimmon seeds and such lol.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I was out in central KS the other day…saw a few goose-nadoes. When the super flocks of tens to hundreds of thousands decide to land in a field, its truly a thing to behold. Looks like a literal tornado of geese all circling as they descend down in a spiral motion. So cool

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

It takes a big person, kudos to Sherry Kuehl. Thank you for sharing, Gary.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded 2″ of white fluffy snow up here in Maryville! Didn’t think we would get that much. Pretty easy to scoop though! Have a great Thursday Bloggers!
Michael

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Haha great article!

G Beebe
Guest
G Beebe

.. wondering about March 13th. I believe it’s time for the system that brought almost 2″ of snow to come around, and the FV3-GFS is showing a similar 3 point set up near KC again, but this time warmer and some big T-storms, followed by yet another blast of cold air for several days. I wonder if dew points will be high enough to support the risk of severe weather for KC?

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Did I hear correctly that the temps were in the 40s when those tornados hit in Alabama? If so, that seems nearly counterintuitive from my (previous) understandings of the conditions required for storms of that magnitude to form & strike.

matt
Guest
matt

So could happen here if warm where up in the air and hope on 13th in 70’s so big storms minus Damage.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

was not in 40s during those twisters….it was a warm humid set up and quite classic.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Thank you for clearing this up. Makes sense now.
Sometimes one must question their own sanity when others are insisting that what they thought they heard was truth. smh

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That’s October 14’s recurrence, yes. It was the only event cold enough to produce snow in the very warm Cycle 2. Perhaps it will do so again on the leading edge of that storm. The CMC also has us clipped by a tiny bit of snow at the very end of that storm on the 14th. I think our next chance for any significant (more than a dusting) snow is around the 17th. GFS and CMC seem to have a similar idea of precipitation coming out into the plains from Montana and Wyoming. GFS pops it out of existence before… Read more »

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

First! I think… I look forward to seeing some fantastic storms, but hopefully spares us all from the worst of it.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

No highs in the 30s over the next 10 days…so, perhaps we have indeed turned the corner.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

You say, 1/4″-3/4″ of rain on Saturday, by noon. Do you see more North or South? I would love to get more North for once.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’ll never happen! Northland Split!

TedPopson
Guest
TedPopson

Tonganoxie split.